Modelling the reliability of search operations within the UK through Bayesian belief networks

This paper uses a Bayesian belief networks (BBN) methodology to assess the reliability of search and rescue (SAR) operations within the UK coastguard (maritime rescue) coordination centers. This is an extension of earlier work, which investigated the rationale of the government's decision to close a number of coordination centers. The previous study made use of secondary data sources and employed a binary logistic regression methodology to support the analysis. This study focused on the collection of primary data through a structured elicitation process, which resulted in the construction of a BBN. The main findings of the study are that approaches such as logistic regression are complementary to BBN's. The former provided a more objective assessment of associations between variables but was restricted in the level of detail that could be explicitly expressed within the model due to lack of available data. The latter method provided a much more detailed model but the validity of the numeric assessments was more questionable. Each method can be used to inform and defend the development of the other. The paper describes in detail the elicitation process employed to construct the BBN and reflects on the potential for bias

An Assessment of the Efficiency of Agribusiness Trucking Companies: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the issue of efficiency in the U.S. motor carrier industry using DEA and SFA. While both methods used the same variables, the resulting efficiency scores were significantly different. This leads to the question of which method is a better measure of efficiency.Public Economics,

HYDRA: multipurpose ship designs in engineering and education

The cornerstone of post-graduate naval architecture and marine engineering education at UCL is the Ship Design Exercise. This three-month full-time project sees students placed in small, multi-disciplinary teams and challenged with the concept design of a new vessel based on broad outline require-ments provided by the academic staff. This exercise exemplifies the use of design as an integrative teaching method, allowing engineering students to place their academic understanding of technical subjects in a whole-ship concept. This paper describes an innovative design – HYDRA – featuring a single core vessel capable of adaption during build to take on several military or civilian roles. This paper not only describes the technical aspects of the design solution itself, but also discusses the educational implications of setting students the challenge of designing ships to meet multiple, sometimes contradictory requirements. In addition to aligning well with some modern trends in ship design and construction, this type of problem is seen to offer potential benefits in engineering education. These benefits are discussed, in addition to the potential complications they bring to various aspects of the design exercise

All at sea? A critical appraisal of the C4 framework for the management of major maritime emergencies (MME)

This study is the result of nearly four decades of professional practice in the maritime industry and, in particular, dealing with shipping emergencies, including many high profile accidents and several hundred lesser, but potentially life-threatening, emergencies. The study uses this knowledge and experience as a basis for undertaking a critical evaluation of the Command, Control, Communication and Coordination (C4) framework that is typically used in dealing with such emergencies. It begins with a brief history and background to the C4 framework in the context of a major maritime emergency (MME). The components of the framework are defined and an exemplar activity map used to describe the framework in detail and the relationship between its components and external influences. A preliminary evaluation of the C4 framework suggested that while it is largely robust in principle, there is considerable evidence to suggest that its utility in the handling of live emergencies is frequently undermined in practice. This finding led to a second phase of evaluation, which attempted to identify optimal operational principles that can contribute to a more effective implementation of the C4 framework in major maritime emergencies. Six command principles (P1-P6) plus one sub-principle (P1a) developed from the author’s career are described and used as a basis upon which to build additional principles. To determine these additional principles, seven case studies based on experience and professional practice, are examined to identify key statements and observations of Favourable (F) and Unfavourable (U) practice. Evaluation and analysis of the key statements and observations led to thirty additional C4 framework principles. A short cross-sectional (latitudinal) survey was also conducted of emergency service professionals to support the professional practice and the principles derived from the case studies. Given the time constraints of this study and the difficulty in maintaining responses over time from all 395 respondents, a longitudinal survey was ruled out. Analysis of the survey led to a further three principles that included qualities required of a commander, and the selection of potential recruits to emergency response organisations, in particular command positions. The six original principles of command (plus one sub-principle) are matched with extant cognitive decision making studies, together with a limited review of the psychology of decision making outside of the maritime context using real life examples, and evaluated for commonality or otherwise of biases and thinking approach. From these appraisals a further 5 principles were identified. In all, a comprehensive list of 46 C4 framework principles is produced that covers command in terms of people (command, skills and knowledge), Process (Design), Resources (Design), Organisation (Design). The 46 principles are classified under 3 headings: Capability, Readiness, Response, producing 26 consolidated principles under 10 sub-headings. The list is further refined to produce three distinct tables of principles in an operational format that can be used by any emergency response organisation. The study, which is based on practical experience and professional practice supported by academic research, concludes that the implementation of the C4 framework for the management of an MME can be significantly flawed, and would benefit from the adoption of many of the principles derived from the author’s own experiences and also from complementary sources. The study also supports the contention that it is the human element in the implementation of the C4 framework that could be improved and that the framework itself is largely fit for purpose. The refined principles derived require actions to be undertaken, some more extensive than others, by commanders, trainers, recruiters and managers before they can be effective. To aid this approach, the principles are marshalled into three key groups, as commonly used by emergency services, as described above. The key groups can be used to aid the formation of simulated exercises for training purposes and for organisational design. In summary, the principles identified provide a foundation for improving the implementation of the C4 framework for the management of MMEs, and for emergencies across all other fields and in many other contexts

“Robin Hook”: The developmental effects of Somali piracy

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityNaval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery. We show that significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia. The impacts appear to be spread widely, benefiting the working poor and pastoralists and offsetting the food price shock of 2008 in the pirate provinces. Pirates appear to invest their money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the backward coastal communities

Helicopter winching; Time off chest when performing CPR, manual compressions versus mechanical.

Aim Winch Paramedics working on Search and Rescue helicopters in the UK are currently expected to deliver good quality, continual chest compressions whilst winching patients into the aircraft. The aim of this study is to ascertain the time off chest when compressions are delivered manually versus mechanically using a Schiller Easy Pulse. Method Five winch paramedics from three UK SAR bases conducted ten winching serials each. Five were whilst delivering manual chest compressions and five were using the Schiller Easy Pulse mechanical chest compression device. The primary outcome measure was chest compression fraction of overall winching time (Fraction of total time where compressions were performed) The secondary outcome measure was chest compression quality which was measured on the depth of compressions delivered. The results were statistically analysed using the Man Whitney U test and confidence intervals were used to verify distribution of the data. Results The compression fraction is greater when the Schiller Easy Pulse is used to winch a mannequin into a helicopter. The results show that the mean percentage of time off the chest in the mechanical group was 1.68% with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.59-2.77 Vs 40.84% with a 95% CI of 35.00-46.68 in the manual group. The Mann-Whitney U test revealed that the results are statistically significant P=<.001. However the quality of both manual and mechanical compressions were poor. Conclusion The compression fraction when using a Schiller Easy Pulse is significantly better whilst winching a mannequin into a SAR helicopter in comparison with a winch paramedics manually delivered chest compressions

Damage survivability of passenger ships : re-engineering the safety factor

This paper presents a brief summary of the work carried out by SSRC and Brookes Bell Safety at Sea within the EC-funded project GOALDS on the development of a new formulation for assessing the survivability of damaged ships in waves. The proposed formula is meant to be an alternative or replacement to the s-factor in use within the current SOLAS regulations for probabilistic damage stability. The authors briefly discuss concerns related to the current survivability model and present the process of development that led to the re-engineered formulation

"Robin Hook": The Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy

Naval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery. We show that significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia. The impacts appear to be spread widely, benefiting the working poor and pastoralists and offsetting the food price shock of 2008 in the pirate provinces. Pirates appear to invest their money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the backward coastal communities.Somalia, piracy, cash transfers, economic development, remote sensing, satellite imaging

Work-related stress in Her Majesty's Coastguard (HMCG)

The aim of this research was to gain an understanding of work-related stress in a previously unstudied occupational group, Her Majesty's Coastguard (HMCG). The overall level of stress was established at 11%, contrary to expectations and lower than the 17% found in general population comparison samples. Despite this relatively lower level, measures reflecting the Effort-Reward-lmbalance (ERI), Job Demands-Control-Support (JDCS) and Negative Occupational Factors Models of stress were all associated with seven negative outcomes (stress, anxiety, depression, number of sick days, perception that illness was caused or made worse from work, inability to "relax or wind down" and impact on family life) and up to a further nine, dependent upon the model. Significant predictors of stress included ERI, organisation change and exposure to physical agents (noise), with anxiety predicted by ERI, noise and bullying, and depression by ERI, bullying, noise, training and role conflict/ambiguity. The level of depression found was significantly higher than a general population comparison group. ERI was a consistent theme throughout and the most efficient model in explaining variance in the data. Those who had high effort- reward imbalance were nine times more likely to experience stress, 13 times more likely to experience anxiety and six times more likely to suffer from depression. Using the JDCS Model, HMCG were found to have significantly lower job demands and decision latitude but significantly higher levels of moderating social support. A second, pilot study, which focused on job specific factors, indicated that critical incidents involving death of a child might be the most stressful to handle but that frequency of exposure, amongst a range of other influences, were having a moderating effect. Whilst demonstrating that lower levels of stress are still harmful, there were also aspects of this group which may help with stress reduction elsewhere. Implications for further research are discussed