Transforming Graph Representations for Statistical Relational Learning

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation for the nodes, links, and features can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed

A Primer on Causality in Data Science

Many questions in Data Science are fundamentally causal in that our objective is to learn the effect of some exposure, randomized or not, on an outcome interest. Even studies that are seemingly non-causal, such as those with the goal of prediction or prevalence estimation, have causal elements, including differential censoring or measurement. As a result, we, as Data Scientists, need to consider the underlying causal mechanisms that gave rise to the data, rather than simply the pattern or association observed in those data. In this work, we review the 'Causal Roadmap' of Petersen and van der Laan (2014) to provide an introduction to some key concepts in causal inference. Similar to other causal frameworks, the steps of the Roadmap include clearly stating the scientific question, defining of the causal model, translating the scientific question into a causal parameter, assessing the assumptions needed to express the causal parameter as a statistical estimand, implementation of statistical estimators including parametric and semi-parametric methods, and interpretation of our findings. We believe that using such a framework in Data Science will help to ensure that our statistical analyses are guided by the scientific question driving our research, while avoiding over-interpreting our results. We focus on the effect of an exposure occurring at a single time point and highlight the use of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) with Super Learner.Comment: 26 pages (with references); 4 figure

The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting

This article gives the asymptotic properties of multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimators for dependent variables belonging to Rd, d > 1. The results derived here permit to provide consistent forecasts, and confidence intervals for time series An illustration of the method is given through the estimation of economic indicators used to compute the GDP with the bridge equations. An empirical forecast accuracy comparison is provided by comparing this non-parametric method with a parametric one based on ARIMA modelling that we consider as a benchmark because it is still often used in Central Banks to nowcast and forecast the GDP.Multivariate k-nearest neighbor, asymptotic normality of the regression, mixing time series, confidence intervals, forecasts, economic indicators, euro area.

RankMerging: A supervised learning-to-rank framework to predict links in large social network

Uncovering unknown or missing links in social networks is a difficult task because of their sparsity and because links may represent different types of relationships, characterized by different structural patterns. In this paper, we define a simple yet efficient supervised learning-to-rank framework, called RankMerging, which aims at combining information provided by various unsupervised rankings. We illustrate our method on three different kinds of social networks and show that it substantially improves the performances of unsupervised metrics of ranking. We also compare it to other combination strategies based on standard methods. Finally, we explore various aspects of RankMerging, such as feature selection and parameter estimation and discuss its area of relevance: the prediction of an adjustable number of links on large networks.Comment: 43 pages, published in Machine Learning Journa

Network regression with predictive clustering trees

n/