Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures

We construct an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and March of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class. Fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as equities. While the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as equities, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative correlation between commodity futures and the other asset classes is due, in significant part, to different behavior over the business cycle. In addition, commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.

Testing The Adaptive Efficiency Of U.S. Stock Markets: A Genetic Programming Approach

Genetic programming is employed to develop trading rules, which are applied to test the efficient market hypothesis. Most previous tests of the efficient market hypothesis were limited to trading rules that returned simple buy-sell signals. The broader approach taken here, developed under a framework consistent with the standard portfolio model, allows use of trading rules that are defined as the proportion of an investor’s total wealth invested into the risky asset (rather than being a simple buy-sell signal). The methodology uses average utility of terminal wealth as the fitness function, as a means of adjusting returns for risk. With data on daily stock prices from 1985 to 2005, the algorithm finds trading rules for 24 individual stocks. These rules then are applied to out-of-sample data to test adaptive efficiency of these markets. Applying more stringent thresholds to choose the trading rules to be applied out-of-sample (an extension of previous research) improves out-of-sample fitness; however, the rules still do not outperform the simple buy-and-hold strategy. These findings therefore imply that the 24 stock markets studied were adaptively efficient during the period under study

Alternative Pricing and Delivery Strategies for Alberta Cattle Feeders

This study evaluates the risk and returns to cattle feeding in Alberta from the application of alternative marketing and pricing strategies. Feedlot finishing of 650 pound calves and 800 pound yearlings is modeled over the years from 1980 to 1993. The results of the study are based on the domestic and US marketing of live cattle using traditional cash marketing, futures contracts, put options, and forward production contracting systems. Use of the Western Domestic Feed Barley contract is also simulated. The results showed that barley price changes produced relatively small return changes compared to feeder and fat cattle price changes. An important source of return risk was found to be basis risk. Production contracting strategies which eliminated basis risk were found to provide the best returns in a market based risk-return comparison. The use of put options did not add value to cattle feeding investments.Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

Why the Law Hates Speculators: Regulation and Private Ordering in the Market for OTC Derivatives

A wide variety of statutory and common law doctrines in American law evidence hostility towards speculation. Conventional economic theory, however, generally views speculation as an efficient form of trading that shifts risk to those who can bear it most easily and improves the accuracy of market prices. This Article reconciles the apparent conflict between legal tradition and economic theory by explaining why some forms of speculative trading may be inefficient. It presents a heterogeneous expectations model of speculative trading that offers important insights into antispeculation laws in general, and the ongoing debate concerning over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives in particular. Although trading in OTC derivatives is presently largely unregulated, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently announced its intention to consider substantively regulating OTC derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). Because the CEA is at heart an antispeculation law, the heterogeneous expectations model of speculation offers policy support for the CFTC\u27s claim of regulatory jurisdiction. This model also, however, suggests an alternative to the apparently binary choice now available to lawmakers (i. e., either regulate OTC derivatives under the CEA, or exempt them). That alternative would be to regulate OTC derivatives in the same manner that the common law traditionally regulated speculative contracts: as permitted, but legally unenforceable, agreements. By requiring derivatives traders to rely on private ordering to ensure the performance of their agreements, this strategy may offer significant advantages in discouraging welfare-reducing speculation based on heterogeneous expectations while protecting more beneficial forms of derivatives trading

The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence

The debate about the Tobin Tax, and other financial transaction taxes (FTT), gives rise to strong views both for and against. Unfortunately, little of this debate is based on the now considerable body of evidence about the impact of such taxes. This review attempts to synthesise what we know from the available theoretical and empirical literature about the impact of FTTs on volatility in financial markets. We also review the literature on how a Tobin Tax might be implemented, the amount of revenue that it might realistically produce, and the likely incidence of the tax. We conclude that, contrary to what is often assumed, a Tobin Tax is feasible and, if appropriately designed, could make a significant contribution to revenue without causing major distortions. However, it would be unlikely to reduce market volatility and could even increase it.Tobin tax, financial transaction taxes, volatility, revenue, incidence, feasibility

A dynamic trading rule based on filtered flag pattern recognition for stock market price forecasting

[EN] In this paper we propose and validate a trading rule based on flag pattern recognition, incorporating im- portant innovations with respect to the previous research. Firstly, we propose a dynamic window scheme that allows the stop loss and take profit to be updated on a quarterly basis. In addition, since the flag pat- tern is a trend-following pattern, we have added the EMA indicator to filter trades. This technical analysis indicator is calculated both for 15-min and 1-day timeframes, which enables short and medium terms to be considered simultaneously. We also filter the flags according to the price range on which they are de- veloped and have limited the maximum loss of each trade to 100 points. The proposed methodology was applied to 91,309 intraday observations of the DJIA index, considerably improving the results obtained in the previous proposals and those obtained by the buy & hold strategy, both for profitability and risk, and also after taking into account the transaction costs. These results seem to challenge market efficiency in line with other similar studies, in the specific analysis carried out on the DJIA index and is also limited to the setup considered.The fourth author of this work was partially supported by MINECO, Project MTM2016-75963-P.Arévalo, R.; García, J.; Guijarro, F.; Peris Manguillot, A. (2017). A dynamic trading rule based on filtered flag pattern recognition for stock market price forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications. 81:177-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2017.03.0281771928

Beyond Bitcoin: Issues in Regulating Blockchain Transactions

The buzz surrounding Bitcoin has reached a fever pitch. Yet in academic legal discussions, disproportionate emphasis is placed on bitcoins (that is, virtual currency), and little mention is made of blockchain technology—the true innovation behind the Bitcoin protocol. Simply, blockchain technology solves an elusive networking problem by enabling “trustless” transactions: value exchanges over computer networks that can be verified, monitored, and enforced without central institutions (for example, banks). This has broad implications for how we transact over electronic networks. This Note integrates current research from leading computer scientists and cryptographers to elevate the legal community’s understanding of blockchain technology and, ultimately, to inform policymakers and practitioners as they consider different regulatory schemes. An examination of the economic properties of a blockchain-based currency suggests the technology’s true value lies in its potential to facilitate more efficient digital-asset transfers. For example, applications of special interest to the legal community include more efficient document and authorship verification, title transfers, and contract enforcement. Though a regulatory patchwork around virtual currencies has begun to form, its careful analysis reveals much uncertainty with respect to these alternative applications

The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market

We analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously studied rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit opportunities had disappeared by the early 1990s for filter and moving average rules. Returns to less-studied rules also have declined but have probably not completely disappeared. High volatility prevents precise estimation of mean returns. These regularities are consistent with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (Lo, 2004), but not with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.Foreign exchange market ; Foreign exchange

Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability

The paper provides an overview of the hedge fund industry, mainly from a financial stability and European angle. It is primarily based on an extensive analysis of information from the TASS database. On the positive side of the financial stability assessment, hedge funds have a role as providers of diversification and liquidity, and they contribute to the integration and completeness of financial markets. Possible negative effects occur through their impact on financial markets (e.g. via crowded trades) and financial institutions (e.g. via prime brokerage). Several initiatives have been launched to address these concerns and most of them follow indirect regulation via banks. If any direct regulation were to be considered, it would probably have to be implemented in a coordinated manner at the international level. At the EU level there is currently no common regulatory regime, although some Member States have adopted national legislation.Asset management, crowded trades, financial regulation, financial stability, hedgefunds, prime brokerage, risk management.