Modelling of a post-combustion CO₂ capture process using neural networks

This paper presents a study of modelling post-combustion CO₂ capture process using bootstrap aggregated neural networks. The neural network models predict CO₂ capture rate and CO₂ capture level using the following variables as model inputs: inlet flue gas flow rate, CO₂ concentration in inlet flue gas, pressure of flue gas, temperature of flue gas, lean solvent flow rate, MEA concentration and temperature of lean solvent. In order to enhance model accuracy and reliability, multiple feedforward neural network models are developed from bootstrap re-sampling replications of the original training data and are combined. Bootstrap aggregated model can offer more accurate predictions than a single neural network, as well as provide model prediction confidence bounds. Simulated CO₂ capture process operation data from gPROMS simulation are used to build and verify neural network models. Both neural network static and dynamic models are developed and they offer accurate predictions on unseen validation data. The developed neural network models can then be used in the optimisation of the CO₂ capture process

Dual Accuracy-Quality-Driven Neural Network for Prediction Interval Generation

Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic predictions of deep learning models. Such PIs are useful or "high-quality'' as long as they are sufficiently narrow and capture most of the probability density. In this paper, we present a method to learn prediction intervals for regression-based neural networks automatically in addition to the conventional target predictions. In particular, we train two companion neural networks: one that uses one output, the target estimate, and another that uses two outputs, the upper and lower bounds of the corresponding PI. Our main contribution is the design of a loss function for the PI-generation network that takes into account the output of the target-estimation network and has two optimization objectives: minimizing the mean prediction interval width and ensuring the PI integrity using constraints that maximize the prediction interval probability coverage implicitly. Both objectives are balanced within the loss function using a self-adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, we apply a Monte Carlo-based approach that evaluates the model uncertainty in the learned PIs. Experiments using a synthetic dataset, six benchmark datasets, and a real-world crop yield prediction dataset showed that our method was able to maintain a nominal probability coverage and produce narrower PIs without detriment to its target estimation accuracy when compared to those PIs generated by three state-of-the-art neural-network-based methods.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning System

Predicting the Inelastic Response of Base Isolated Structures Utilizing Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

Indeed, utilizing a base isolation system in RC structures can remarkably minimize the possibility of failure, particularly in seismic-prone countries. Despite that, the design of these structures is a long procedure that consists of choosing the appropriate isolator to optimize the nonlinear behavior of the superstructure. Moreover, the numerical simulations require huge computational effort when high accuracy is required. In recent decades, scientists and engineers have applied numerous estimation approaches such as multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks to decrease the required cost and time for daily design problems. Thus, this study's main objective is to solve the difficulty of rapid response prediction by using soft-computing techniques. Additionally, it aims to study the capability of multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks in estimating the seismic performance of base-isolated RC structures under earthquakes. A nonlinear response history analysis of four different lead rubber-bearing isolated RC structures will be performed in order to determine the responses of these structures. Subsequently, the prediction models will be developed using the responses of the structures as inputs for multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks. Lastly, the reliability of both estimation approaches in terms of the response of base-isolated structures will be investigated by comparing the prediction models' capability. In general, the results of the study show that artificial neural networks provide considerably better accuracy in estimating base-isolated structures compared to multiple linear regression, and their performance results in reliable prediction. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-07 Full Text: PD

Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE 2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset.</p

Dynamic learning with neural networks and support vector machines

Neural network approach has proven to be a universal approximator for nonlinear continuous functions with an arbitrary accuracy. It has been found to be very successful for various learning and prediction tasks. However, supervised learning using neural networks has some limitations because of the black box nature of their solutions, experimental network parameter selection, danger of overfitting, and convergence to local minima instead of global minima. In certain applications, the fixed neural network structures do not address the effect on the performance of prediction as the number of available data increases. Three new approaches are proposed with respect to these limitations of supervised learning using neural networks in order to improve the prediction accuracy.;Dynamic learning model using evolutionary connectionist approach . In certain applications, the number of available data increases over time. The optimization process determines the number of the input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer. The corresponding globally optimized neural network structure will be iteratively and dynamically reconfigured and updated as new data arrives to improve the prediction accuracy. Improving generalization capability using recurrent neural network and Bayesian regularization. Recurrent neural network has the inherent capability of developing an internal memory, which may naturally extend beyond the externally provided lag spaces. Moreover, by adding a penalty term of sum of connection weights, Bayesian regularization approach is applied to the network training scheme to improve the generalization performance and lower the susceptibility of overfitting. Adaptive prediction model using support vector machines . The learning process of support vector machines is focused on minimizing an upper bound of the generalization error that includes the sum of the empirical training error and a regularized confidence interval, which eventually results in better generalization performance. Further, this learning process is iteratively and dynamically updated after every occurrence of new data in order to capture the most current feature hidden inside the data sequence.;All the proposed approaches have been successfully applied and validated on applications related to software reliability prediction and electric power load forecasting. Quantitative results show that the proposed approaches achieve better prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches