A Continuous-Time Microsimulation and First Steps Towards a Multi-Level Approach in Demography

Microsimulation is a methodology that closely mimics life-course dynamics. In this thesis, we describe the development of the demographic microsimulation with a continuous time scale that we have realized in the context of the project MicMac - Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting. Furthermore, we detail extensions that we have added to the initial version of the MicMac microsimulation.Mikrosimulation ist eine Prognosetechnik, die sich hervorragend eignet, um Bevölkerungsdynamik realitätsnah abzubilden. In dieser Dissertation beschreiben wir die Entwicklung einer demografischen Mikrosimulation, die wir im Rahmen des Projektes MicMac - Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting erstellt haben. Zudem erläutern wir Erweiterungen, die wir an der ursprünglichen MicMac- Mikrosimulation vorgenommen haben

Multi-level agent-based modeling - A literature survey

During last decade, multi-level agent-based modeling has received significant and dramatically increasing interest. In this article we present a comprehensive and structured review of literature on the subject. We present the main theoretical contributions and application domains of this concept, with an emphasis on social, flow, biological and biomedical models.Comment: v2. Ref 102 added. v3-4 Many refs and text added v5-6 bibliographic statistics updated. v7 Change of the name of the paper to reflect what it became, many refs and text added, bibliographic statistics update

Toward composing variable structure models and their interfaces: a case of intensional coupling definitions

In this thesis, we investigate a combination of traditional component-based and variable structure modeling. The focus is on a structural consistent specification of couplings in modular, hierarchical models with a variable structure. For this, we exploitintensional definitions, as known from logic, and introduce a novel intensional coupling definition, which allows a concise yet expressive specification of complex communication and interaction patterns in static as well as variable structure models, without the need to worryabout structural consistency.In der Arbeit untersuchen wir ein Zusammenbringen von klassischer komponenten-basierter und variabler Strukturmodellierung. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der Spezifikation von strukturkonsistenten Kopplungen in modular-hierarchischen Modellen mit einer variablen Struktur. Dafür nutzen wir intensionale Definitionen, wie sie aus der Logik bekannt sind, und führen ein neuartiges Konzept von intensionalen Kopplungen ein, welches kompakte gleichzeitig ausdrucksstarke Spezifikationen von komplexen Kommunikations- und Interaktionsmuster in statischen und variablen Strukturmodellen erlaubt

Second Generation General System Theory: Perspectives in Philosophy and Approaches in Complex Systems

Following the classical work of Norbert Wiener, Ross Ashby, Ludwig von Bertalanffy and many others, the concept of System has been elaborated in different disciplinary fields, allowing interdisciplinary approaches in areas such as Physics, Biology, Chemistry, Cognitive Science, Economics, Engineering, Social Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine, Artificial Intelligence, and Philosophy. The new challenge of Complexity and Emergence has made the concept of System even more relevant to the study of problems with high contextuality. This Special Issue focuses on the nature of new problems arising from the study and modelling of complexity, their eventual common aspects, properties and approaches—already partially considered by different disciplines—as well as focusing on new, possibly unitary, theoretical frameworks. This Special Issue aims to introduce fresh impetus into systems research when the possible detection and correction of mistakes require the development of new knowledge. This book contains contributions presenting new approaches and results, problems and proposals. The context is an interdisciplinary framework dealing, in order, with electronic engineering problems; the problem of the observer; transdisciplinarity; problems of organised complexity; theoretical incompleteness; design of digital systems in a user-centred way; reaction networks as a framework for systems modelling; emergence of a stable system in reaction networks; emergence at the fundamental systems level; behavioural realization of memoryless functions

A model-based approach to System of Systems risk management

The failure of many System of Systems (SoS) enterprises can be attributed to the inappropriate application of traditional Systems Engineering (SE) processes within the SoS domain, because of the mistaken belief that a SoS can be regarded as a single large, or complex, system. SoS Engineering (SoSE) is a sub-discipline of SE; Risk Management and Modelling and Simulation (M&S) are key areas within SoSE, both of which also lie within the traditional SE domain. Risk Management of SoS requires a different approach to that currently taken for individual systems; if risk is managed for each component system then it cannot be assumed that the aggregated affect will be to mitigate risk at the SoS level. A literature review was undertaken examining three themes: (1) SoS Engineering (SoSE), (2) M&S and (3) Risk. Theme 1 of the literature provided insight into the activities comprising SoSE and its difference from traditional SE with risk management identified as a key activity. The second theme discussed the application of M&S to SoS, providing an output, which supported the identification of appropriate techniques and concluding that, the inherent complexity of a SoS required the use of M&S in order to support SoSE activities. Current risk management approaches were reviewed in theme 3 as well as the management of SoS risk. Although some specific examples of the management of SoS risk were found, no mature, general approach was identified, indicating a gap in current knowledge. However, it was noted most of these examples were underpinned by M&S approaches. It was therefore concluded a general approach SoS risk management utilising M&S methods would be of benefit. In order to fill the gap identified in current knowledge, this research proposed a new model based approach to Risk Management where risk identification was supported by a framework, which combined SoS system of interest dimensions with holistic risk types, where the resulting risks and contributing factors are captured in a causal network. Analysis of the causal network using a model technique selection tool, developed as part of this research, allowed the causal network to be simplified through the replacement of groups of elements within the network by appropriate supporting models. The Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was identified as a suitable method to represent SoS risk. Supporting models run in Monte Carlo Simulations allowed data to be generated from which the risk BBNs could learn, thereby providing a more quantitative approach to SoS risk management. A method was developed which provided context to the BBN risk output through comparison with worst and best-case risk probabilities. The model based approach to Risk Management was applied to two very different case studies: Close Air Support mission planning and the Wheat Supply Chain, UK National Food Security risks, demonstrating its effectiveness and adaptability. The research established that the SoS SoI is essential for effective SoS risk identification and analysis of risk transfer, effective SoS modelling requires a range of techniques where suitability is determined by the problem context, the responsibility for SoS Risk Management is related to the overall SoS classification and the model based approach to SoS risk management was effective for both application case studies

Arquitectura de un sistema integrado para diseño dirigido por modelos en el contexto de internet de las cosas con aplicaciones en medicina

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Informática, Departamento de Arquitectura de Computadores y Automática, leída el 14-10-20222Over the past few years, we have seen how processing and storage architectures become cheaper and more efficient, communication infrastructures become faster and more scalable, and many new ways of interacting with the world around us are being developed. Every day more devices are connected to the network, and the generation of data worldwide is growing exponentially. In this context, the Internet of Things promises to be the new technological revolution, as was the introduction of the network of networks or universal mobile accessibility in tis day...A lo largo de los últimos años hemos visto cómo las arquitecturas de procesamiento y almacenamiento se vuelven más baratas y eficientes, las infraestructuras de comunicación se hacen más rápidas y escalables, y se desarrollan multitud de nuevas formas de interactuar con el mundo que nos rodea. Cada día más dispositivos se conectan a la red, y la generación de datos a nivel mundal está creciendo exponencialmente. En este contexto, el Internet de las cosas promete ser la nueva revolución tecnológica, como en su día lo fue la introducción de la red de redes o la accesibilidad móvil universal...Fac. de InformáticaTRUEunpu

A Review of Platforms for the Development of Agent Systems

Agent-based computing is an active field of research with the goal of building autonomous software of hardware entities. This task is often facilitated by the use of dedicated, specialized frameworks. For almost thirty years, many such agent platforms have been developed. Meanwhile, some of them have been abandoned, others continue their development and new platforms are released. This paper presents a up-to-date review of the existing agent platforms and also a historical perspective of this domain. It aims to serve as a reference point for people interested in developing agent systems. This work details the main characteristics of the included agent platforms, together with links to specific projects where they have been used. It distinguishes between the active platforms and those no longer under development or with unclear status. It also classifies the agent platforms as general purpose ones, free or commercial, and specialized ones, which can be used for particular types of applications.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures, 9 tables, 83 reference

Toward Accessible Multilevel Modeling in Systems Biology: A Rule-based Language Concept

Promoted by advanced experimental techniques for obtaining high-quality data and the steadily accumulating knowledge about the complexity of life, modeling biological systems at multiple interrelated levels of organization attracts more and more attention recently. Current approaches for modeling multilevel systems typically lack an accessible formal modeling language or have major limitations with respect to expressiveness. The aim of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive discussion on associated problems and needs and to propose a concrete solution addressing them