A proposed psychological model of driving automation

This paper considers psychological variables pertinent to driver automation. It is anticipated that driving with automated systems is likely to have a major impact on the drivers and a multiplicity of factors needs to be taken into account. A systems analysis of the driver, vehicle and automation served as the basis for eliciting psychological factors. The main variables to be considered were: feed-back, locus of control, mental workload, driver stress, situational awareness and mental representations. It is expected that anticipating the effects on the driver brought about by vehicle automation could lead to improved design strategies. Based on research evidence in the literature, the psychological factors were assembled into a model for further investigation

Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight

This study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial services—Charles Merrill’s financial supermarket business model—through three well-known and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight. Our study, whose purpose, business historical focus, and structure mirrors Graham Allison’s famous “Conceptual Models of the Cuban Missile Crisis,” allows us to make three contributions. First, it sharpens our understanding of the models we used in the study. Second, it provides the foundations of an integrated view and model of strategic foresight that suggests disciplined strategic foresight is possible, understandable, and replicable within some precise boundaries. Finally, it suggests directions for future behavioral strategy work

Part 3: Systemic risk in ecology and engineering

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. ; This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. ; The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.Financial risk management ; Financial markets ; Financial stability ; Financial crises

Integrated Solution Support System for Water Management

Solving water management problems involves technical, social, economic, political and legal challenges and thus requires an integrated approach involving people from different backgrounds and roles. The integrated approach has been given a prominent role within the European Union¿s Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD requires an integrated approach in water management to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. It consists amongst others of the following main planning stages: describing objectives, assessing present state, identifying gaps between objectives and present state, developing management plan, implementing measures and evaluating their impacts. The directive prescribes broad participation and consultation to achieve its objectives. Besides the obvious desktop software, such an integrated approach can benefit from using a variety of support tools. In addition to tools for specific tasks such as numerical models and questionnaires, knowledge bases on options and process support tools may be utilized. Water stress, defined as the lack of water of appropriate quality is one issue related to, but not specifically addressed by the WFD. However, like in the WFD, a participatory approach could be used to mitigate water stress. Similarly various tools can or need to be used in such a complex process. In the AquaStress Integrated project the Integrated Solution Support System (I3S ¿ I-triple-S) is developed. One of the cornerstones of the approach taken in AquaStress is that organizing available knowledge provides sufficient information to improve the possibility to make a water stress mitigation process truly end-user driven, meaning that dedicated local information is only collected after specific need is expressed by the stakeholders in the process. The novelty of the I3S lies in the combination of such knowledge stored in knowledge-bases, with adaptable workflow management facilities and with specific task-oriented tools ¿ all originating from different sources. This paper describes the I3S

Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation

The Impact of Decision Style on Decision Quality

This thesis focuses on the study of decision style and the effects each styles characteristics has on decision quality. Each personality style exhibits specific characteristics unique to t hat particular style . These characteristics in conjunction with the decision makers cognitive abilities form a unique problem solving or decision style. Characteristics of each style have been operationalized by the Myers-Biggs Type Indicator. Decision quality is measured, for purposes of this paper, in terms of the impact the decision maker\u27s style has on the decision outcome . Decision quality is measured separately from decision success since successful decisions require more than good decisions. This paper evaluates current research in the areas of personality type, decision making styles and their effects on various aspects of the decision process. Results of this evaluation provide considerable evidence to suggest that the hypothesis be accepted and conclude that decision makers have within their decision style unique biases that affect their decision outcome