Assessing the potential for beneficial diversification in rain-fed agricultural enterprises

Climate change and climate variability induce uncertainty in yields, and thus threaten long term economic viability of rain-fed agricultural enterprises. Enterprise mix diversification is the most common, and is widely regarded as the most effective, strategy for mitigating multiple sources of farm business risk. We assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification in mitigating climate induced variability in long term net returns from rain-fed agriculture. We build on APSIM modelling and apply Monte Carlo simulation, probability theory, and finance techniques, to assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification to mitigate climate-induced variability in long term economic returns from rain-fed agriculture. We consider four alternative farm enterprise types consisting of three non-diversified farm enterprises and one diversified farm enterprise consisting of a correlated mix of rain-fed agricultural activities. We analyse a decision to switch from a non-diversified agricultural enterprise with the highest expected return to a diversified agricultural enterprise consisting of a mix of agricultural enterprises. Correlation analysis showed that yields were not perfectly correlated (i.e. are less than 1) indicating that changes in climate variables cause non-proportional impacts on yield production. We conclude that at best, diversification can reduce the standard deviation of net returns by up to about A$110 Ha-1, or 52$54/ha. At worst, diversification can reduce the mean of net returns by up to about A$95 Ha-1, or 46%.climate variability, yield uncertainty, economic returns, rain-fed agricultural enterprise, risk, Monte Carlo, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Air transport in Africa: toward sustainable business models for African airlines

Although there is a vast amount of literature on airline business models and their evolution in changing global landscapes, there is a general lack of research into the applicability of those models, traditionally defined in European and North American contexts, to the African scene. Implicit in this study is the hypothesis that the African environment is unique enough to warrant its own host of strategies, which may be distinctive enough to form part of a new strategic template, or business model. Initially, a review of existing literature is undertaken to profile the African aviation environment and evaluate existing airline business models and their evolution, both globally and in Africa. The methodology consists firstly of a cluster exercise, whereby 57 African airlines are analysed in terms of their network and size, to yield a number of heterogeneous groups which serve to identify the current business models of airlines on the continent. Following this, eight airlines (representative of the groups outlined in the cluster analysis) were subsequently selected for analysis in terms of the Product and Organisational Architecture framework. While it was evident that the traditional models are followed in Africa, in some instances variations were apparent. Full-service network carriers and regional carriers were concluded as being the most prominent and stable in the African market. The applicability of the low-cost carrier model in Africa was also examined at length, with mixed results. The analysis also raised network density and connectivity as essential components of business models for delivering profits in an African context

Economic Factors Contributing to Time-Varying Conditional Correlations in Stock Returns

This paper attempts to find economic and financial factors contributing to the changing correlations of stock returns. Time-varying correlations were documented in previous studies, but a few attempts have been made to investigate their evolution. Using daily data from the Asia-Pacific region, this paper provides evidence that return correlations are negatively correlated with the distance between the markets. Furthermore, correlations tend to be higher in advanced countries and increase at times of the active trading (e.g., around the Lehman shock). Instead, the level of correlations declines among pairs of countries with less financial integration.Conditional correlations, DCC

The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research

The New Basel Accord for bank capital regulation is designed to better align regulatory capital to the underlying risks by encouraging better and more systematic risk management practices, especially in the area of credit risk. We provide an overview of the objectives, analytical foundations and main features of the Accord and then open the door to some research questions provoked by the Accord. We see these questions falling into three groups: what is the impact of the proposal on the global banking system through possible changes in bank behavior; a set of issues around risk analytics such as model validation, correlations and portfolio aggregation, operational risk metrics and relevant summary statistics of a bank’s risk profile; issues brought about by Pillar 2 (supervisory review) and Pillar 3 (public disclosure).Bank capital regulation, risk management, credit risk, operational risk

The multiplex structure of interbank networks

The interbank market has a natural multiplex network representation. We employ a unique database of supervisory reports of Italian banks to the Banca d'Italia that includes all bilateral exposures broken down by maturity and by the secured and unsecured nature of the contract. We find that layers have different topological properties and persistence over time. The presence of a link in a layer is not a good predictor of the presence of the same link in other layers. Maximum entropy models reveal different unexpected substructures, such as network motifs, in different layers. Using the total interbank network or focusing on a specific layer as representative of the other layers provides a poor representation of interlinkages in the interbank market and could lead to biased estimation of systemic risk.Comment: 41 pages, 8 figures, 10 table

Loan maturity aggregation in interbank lending networks obscures mesoscale structure and economic functions

Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan maturities. We employ a complete interbank loan contract dataset to investigate whether maturity details are informative of the network structure. Applying the layered stochastic block model of Peixoto (2015) and other tools from network science on a time series of bilateral loans with multiple maturity layers in the Russian ILN, we find that collapsing all such layers consistently obscures mesoscale structure. The optimal maturity granularity lies between completely collapsing and completely separating the maturity layers and depends on the development phase of the interbank market, with a more developed market requiring more layers for optimal description. Closer inspection of the inferred maturity bins associated with the optimal maturity granularity reveals specific economic functions, from liquidity intermediation to financing. Collapsing a network with multiple underlying maturity layers or extracting one such layer, common in economic research, is therefore not only an incomplete representation of the ILN's mesoscale structure, but also conceals existing economic functions. This holds important insights and opportunities for theoretical and empirical studies on interbank market functioning, contagion, stability, and on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure

The Structure of Intra-Group Ties: Innovation in Taiwanese Business Groups

Business groups are a network form of multi-business firm that play central economic and technological roles in many emerging economies. We draw from the technology studies literature, complemented by concepts from studies of organizational networks, to investigate how equity, director, and operating ties between firms within groups shape their innovation opportunities. Technology studies suggest that such ties create both opportunities and constraints that influence innovative activity by affiliates and, in aggregate, by a group as a whole - opportunities that arise from access to information, people, money, and other resources, but also constraints that arise from entrenched relationships among different actors. The network literature, in turn, suggests that centrality and density of ties between firms within a group will shape the benefits and constraints. We find that the overall density and individual centrality of the three types of ties affects affiliate and group innovativeness among about 2,000 firms within 263 business groups in Taiwan between 1982 and 2000. Groups that offer affiliates focused access to financial resources and operating knowledge, coupled with autonomy from intra-group competition and strategic interference, often generate fertile opportunities for innovative activity by some of their members. The results also offer implications for multi-business firm innovativeness.

Risk Management of Precious Metals

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. Different risk management strategies are suggested, and the best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs. The risk-minimizing portfolio weights and dynamic hedge ratios between different metal groups are also analyzed.Precious metals; conditional volatility; risk management; value-at-risk

Risk management of precious metals

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. Different risk management strategies are suggested, and the best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs. The risk-minimizing portfolio weights and dynamic hedge ratios between different metal groups are also analyzed.risk management;value-at-risk;conditional volatility;precious metals