Use of Markov Chains to Design an Agent Bidding Strategy for Continuous Double Auctions

As computational agents are developed for increasingly complicated e-commerce applications, the complexity of the decisions they face demands advances in artificial intelligence techniques. For example, an agent representing a seller in an auction should try to maximize the seller's profit by reasoning about a variety of possibly uncertain pieces of information, such as the maximum prices various buyers might be willing to pay, the possible prices being offered by competing sellers, the rules by which the auction operates, the dynamic arrival and matching of offers to buy and sell, and so on. A naive application of multiagent reasoning techniques would require the seller's agent to explicitly model all of the other agents through an extended time horizon, rendering the problem intractable for many realistically-sized problems. We have instead devised a new strategy that an agent can use to determine its bid price based on a more tractable Markov chain model of the auction process. We have experimentally identified the conditions under which our new strategy works well, as well as how well it works in comparison to the optimal performance the agent could have achieved had it known the future. Our results show that our new strategy in general performs well, outperforming other tractable heuristic strategies in a majority of experiments, and is particularly effective in a 'seller?s market', where many buy offers are available

Evolutionary Optimization of ZIP60: A Controlled Explosion in Hyperspace

The “ZIP” adaptive trading algorithm has been demonstrated to out-perform human traders in experimental studies of continuous double auction (CDA) markets. The original ZIP algorithm requires the values of eight control parameters to be set correctly. A new extension of the ZIP algorithm, called ZIP60, requires the values of 60 parameters to be set correctly. ZIP60 is shown here to produce significantly better results than the original ZIP (called “ZIP8” hereafter), for negligable additional computational costs. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to search the 60-dimensional ZIP60 parameter space, and it finds parameter vectors that yield ZIP60 traders with mean scores significantly better than those of ZIP8s. This paper shows that the optimizing evolutionary search works best when the GA itself controls the dimensionality of the search-space, so that the search commences in an 8-d space and thereafter the dimensionality of the search-space is gradually increased by the GA until it is exploring a 60-d space. Furthermore, the results from ZIP60 cast some doubt on prior ZIP8 results concerning the evolution of new ‘hybrid’ auction mechanisms that appeared to be better than the CDA

Use of Markov Chains to Design an Agent Bidding Strategy for Continuous Double Auctions

As computational agents are developed for increasingly complicated e-commerce applications, the complexity of the decisions they face demands advances in artificial intelligence techniques. For example, an agent representing a seller in an auction should try to maximize the seller’s profit by reasoning about a variety of possibly uncertain pieces of information, such as the maximum prices various buyers might be willing to pay, the possible prices being offered by competing sellers, the rules by which the auction operates, the dynamic arrival and matching of offers to buy and sell, and so on. A naïve application of multiagent reasoning techniques would require the seller’s agent to explicitly model all of the other agents through an extended time horizon, rendering the problem intractable for many realistically-sized problems. We have instead devised a new strategy that an agent can use to determine its bid price based on a more tractable Markov chain model of the auction process. We have experimentally identified the conditions under which our new strategy works well, as well as how well it works in comparison to the optimal performance the agent could have achieved had it known the future. Our results show that our new strategy in general performs well, outperforming other tractable heuristic strategies in a majority of experiments, and is particularly effective in a “seller’s market, ” where many buy offers are available. 1

Automated Bidding in Computing Service Markets. Strategies, Architectures, Protocols

This dissertation contributes to the research on Computational Mechanism Design by providing novel theoretical and software models - a novel bidding strategy called Q-Strategy, which automates bidding processes in imperfect information markets, a software framework for realizing agents and bidding strategies called BidGenerator and a communication protocol called MX/CS, for expressing and exchanging economic and technical information in a market-based scheduling system

Using Transfer Learning in Network Markets

Mechanism design is the sub-field of microeconomics and game theory, which considers agents have their own private information and are self-interested and tries to design systems that can produce desirable outcomes. In recent years, with the development of internet and electronic markets, mechanism design has become an important research field in computer science. This work has largely focused on single markets. In the real world, individual markets tend to connect to other markets and form a big “network market”, where each market occupies a node in the network and connections between markets reflect constraints on traders in the markets. So, it is interesting to find out how the structure of connected network markets impacts the performance of the resulting network markets and how we can optimize performance by varying the things that one could control in a network market. In this dissertation, I aim to find out whether we can apply transfer learning to other machine learning techniques like reinforcement learning in the design of network markets to help optimize the performance of the network markets. I applied transfer learning on both machine learning trading strategies and machine learning strategies for selecting which market to trade in. I found that, in most cases, by applying transfer learning to machine learning trading strategies or machine learning market selection strategies, we can improve the performance of the network market significantly