Unsupervised Sampling Promoting for Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction

The indeterminate nature of human motion requires trajectory prediction systems to use a probabilistic model to formulate the multi-modality phenomenon and infer a finite set of future trajectories. However, the inference processes of most existing methods rely on Monte Carlo random sampling, which is insufficient to cover the realistic paths with finite samples, due to the long tail effect of the predicted distribution. To promote the sampling process of stochastic prediction, we propose a novel method, called BOsampler, to adaptively mine potential paths with Bayesian optimization in an unsupervised manner, as a sequential design strategy in which new prediction is dependent on the previously drawn samples. Specifically, we model the trajectory sampling as a Gaussian process and construct an acquisition function to measure the potential sampling value. This acquisition function applies the original distribution as prior and encourages exploring paths in the long-tail region. This sampling method can be integrated with existing stochastic predictive models without retraining. Experimental results on various baseline methods demonstrate the effectiveness of our method

The path inference filter: model-based low-latency map matching of probe vehicle data

We consider the problem of reconstructing vehicle trajectories from sparse sequences of GPS points, for which the sampling interval is between 10 seconds and 2 minutes. We introduce a new class of algorithms, called altogether path inference filter (PIF), that maps GPS data in real time, for a variety of trade-offs and scenarios, and with a high throughput. Numerous prior approaches in map-matching can be shown to be special cases of the path inference filter presented in this article. We present an efficient procedure for automatically training the filter on new data, with or without ground truth observations. The framework is evaluated on a large San Francisco taxi dataset and is shown to improve upon the current state of the art. This filter also provides insights about driving patterns of drivers. The path inference filter has been deployed at an industrial scale inside the Mobile Millennium traffic information system, and is used to map fleets of data in San Francisco, Sacramento, Stockholm and Porto.Comment: Preprint, 23 pages and 23 figure

Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm

Intrinsically Motivated Goal Exploration Processes with Automatic Curriculum Learning

Intrinsically motivated spontaneous exploration is a key enabler of autonomous lifelong learning in human children. It enables the discovery and acquisition of large repertoires of skills through self-generation, self-selection, self-ordering and self-experimentation of learning goals. We present an algorithmic approach called Intrinsically Motivated Goal Exploration Processes (IMGEP) to enable similar properties of autonomous or self-supervised learning in machines. The IMGEP algorithmic architecture relies on several principles: 1) self-generation of goals, generalized as fitness functions; 2) selection of goals based on intrinsic rewards; 3) exploration with incremental goal-parameterized policy search and exploitation of the gathered data with a batch learning algorithm; 4) systematic reuse of information acquired when targeting a goal for improving towards other goals. We present a particularly efficient form of IMGEP, called Modular Population-Based IMGEP, that uses a population-based policy and an object-centered modularity in goals and mutations. We provide several implementations of this architecture and demonstrate their ability to automatically generate a learning curriculum within several experimental setups including a real humanoid robot that can explore multiple spaces of goals with several hundred continuous dimensions. While no particular target goal is provided to the system, this curriculum allows the discovery of skills that act as stepping stone for learning more complex skills, e.g. nested tool use. We show that learning diverse spaces of goals with intrinsic motivations is more efficient for learning complex skills than only trying to directly learn these complex skills