Probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation using extreme learning machine.

Accurate and reliable forecast of wind power is essential to power system operation and control. However, due to the nonstationarity of wind power series, traditional point forecasting can hardly be accurate, leading to increased uncertainties and risks for system operation. This paper proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM)-based probabilistic forecasting method for wind power generation. To account for the uncertainties in the forecasting results, several bootstrap methods have been compared for modeling the regression uncertainty, based on which the pairs bootstrap method is identified with the best performance. Consequently, a new method for prediction intervals formulation based on the ELM and the pairs bootstrap is developed. Wind power forecasting has been conducted in different seasons using the proposed approach with the historical wind power time series as the inputs alone. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective for probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation with a high potential for practical applications in power systems

Experimental Results of Concurrent Learning Adaptive Controllers

Commonly used Proportional-Integral-Derivative based UAV flight controllers are often seen to provide adequate trajectory-tracking performance only after extensive tuning. The gains of these controllers are tuned to particular platforms, which makes transferring controllers from one UAV to other time-intensive. This paper suggests the use of adaptive controllers in speeding up the process of extracting good control performance from new UAVs. In particular, it is shown that a concurrent learning adaptive controller improves the trajectory tracking performance of a quadrotor with baseline linear controller directly imported from another quadrotors whose inertial characteristics and throttle mapping are very di fferent. Concurrent learning adaptive control uses specifi cally selected and online recorded data concurrently with instantaneous data and is capable of guaranteeing tracking error and weight error convergence without requiring persistency of excitation. Flight-test results are presented on indoor quadrotor platforms operated in MIT's RAVEN environment. These results indicate the feasibility of rapidly developing high-performance UAV controllers by using adaptive control to augment a controller transferred from another UAV with similar control assignment structure.United States. Office of Naval Research. Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (Grant N000141110688)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Graduate Research Fellowship Program (Grant 0645960)Boeing Scientific Research Laboratorie

Probabilistic analysis of the human transcriptome with side information

Understanding functional organization of genetic information is a major challenge in modern biology. Following the initial publication of the human genome sequence in 2001, advances in high-throughput measurement technologies and efficient sharing of research material through community databases have opened up new views to the study of living organisms and the structure of life. In this thesis, novel computational strategies have been developed to investigate a key functional layer of genetic information, the human transcriptome, which regulates the function of living cells through protein synthesis. The key contributions of the thesis are general exploratory tools for high-throughput data analysis that have provided new insights to cell-biological networks, cancer mechanisms and other aspects of genome function. A central challenge in functional genomics is that high-dimensional genomic observations are associated with high levels of complex and largely unknown sources of variation. By combining statistical evidence across multiple measurement sources and the wealth of background information in genomic data repositories it has been possible to solve some the uncertainties associated with individual observations and to identify functional mechanisms that could not be detected based on individual measurement sources. Statistical learning and probabilistic models provide a natural framework for such modeling tasks. Open source implementations of the key methodological contributions have been released to facilitate further adoption of the developed methods by the research community.Comment: Doctoral thesis. 103 pages, 11 figure

On evolutionary system identification with applications to nonlinear benchmarks

This paper presents a record of the participation of the authors in a workshop on nonlinear system identification held in 2016. It provides a summary of a keynote lecture by one of the authors and also gives an account of how the authors developed identification strategies and methods for a number of benchmark nonlinear systems presented as challenges, before and during the workshop. It is argued here that more general frameworks are now emerging for nonlinear system identification, which are capable of addressing substantial ranges of problems. One of these frameworks is based on evolutionary optimisation (EO); it is a framework developed by the authors in previous papers and extended here. As one might expect from the ‘no-free-lunch’ theorem for optimisation, the methodology is not particularly sensitive to the particular (EO) algorithm used, and a number of different variants are presented in this paper, some used for the first time in system identification problems, which show equal capability. In fact, the EO approach advocated in this paper succeeded in finding the best solutions to two of the three benchmark problems which motivated the workshop. The paper provides considerable discussion on the approaches used and makes a number of suggestions regarding best practice; one of the major new opportunities identified here concerns the application of grey-box models which combine the insight of any prior physical-law based models (white box) with the power of machine learners with universal approximation properties (black box)