Modeling Terrorist Radicalization

Recent high-profile terrorism arrests and litigation in New York, Colorado, and Detroit have brought public attention to the question of how the government should respond to the possibility of domestic-origin terrorism linked to al Qaeda. This symposium essay identifies and discussing one emerging approach in the United States and Europe which attends to the process of terrorist “radicalization.” States on both sides of the Atlantic are investing increasingly in developing an epistemology of terrorist violence. The results have implications for how policing resources are allocated, whether privacy rights are respected, and how religious liberty may be exercised. This essay traces the development of state discourses on “radicalization” in the United States and the United Kingdom. It argues that understanding this new “radicalization” discourse entails attention to interactions between nations and between the federal government and states as well as to the political economy of counter-terrorism

The Rise of Mono-Ethnic Religious Nationalism in Myanmar and Its Impacts on the Security Situation of the South Asian Region

In spite of the technological advancement and progress of liberalism, religion has remained an essential aspect of individual and national life in many countries. In many societies, religion has manifested elements of extremism, which ultimately perpetuates violence and destruction. This radical religious phenomenon is much predominant in the Southeast and South Asian region, including the country known as Myanmar. Myanmar has become a classic example of the religious fusion of politics and social life. The hybrid form of emerging democratic tenets, albeit under military sponsorship in Myanmar, provides a breeding ground for religious nationalism, with dire consequences for religious minorities. Buddhist nationalism in Myanmar has adopted a virulent anti-Muslim narrative in particular and intolerance and hate towards the Muslim minority Rohingyas living in Rakhine state in particular. From August 2017, communal violence to date approximately 600,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar and became refugees in neighboring Bangladesh. The catastrophic humanitarian disaster that emanates through the Rohingya crisis poses a threat to regional security and therefore requires the immediate attention of the global community to stop further loss of lives and destruction. The impacts of the Rohingya conflict are not confined within the boundaries of Myanmar, but the conflict also impacts its neighboring Southeast Asian countries. This thesis emphasizes on the dangers of religious xenophobia as well as the use and explanation of faith for political and nationalistic causes. The paper also evaluates the role of Myanmar military in the socio-political and economic context to determine their involvement in setting the platform for the rise of Buddhist nationalism. The thesis argues that the culture of minority oppression and systemic discrimination against religious minority groups such as the Rohingya not only jeopardizes the county\u27s democratic credentials and vision but also carries grave implications for Southeast Asia, one of the most volatile regions in the world

Predicting Domestic Extremism and Targeted Violence: A Machine Learning Approach

The report applies machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast where domestic extremist groups and active shooter incidents are most likely to occur in the United States. Identifying high-risk areas for these emerging threats is important for effective counterterrorism and conflict prevention, but complicated by the fact that policymakers often need to detect these threats at a stage when there might not be overt warning signs of violence. This report addresses this gap and directly supports Strategic Goals 1.1 and 1.2 in the June 2021 National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism by providing “data-driven guidance on how to recognize potential indicators of mobilization to domestic terrorism.”1 We develop and test two prototype machine learning models based on existing research about the causes of radicalization, ideologically-motivated violent extremism (IMVE), and targeted violence. First, we input information about these potential risk indicators as well as data about extremist actors and violent incidents to map patterns between 2017-2020. We then use this information to forecast which areas are at highest risk for extremism and active shooter incidents. As an extension, we also identify which areas in the 1 “National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism.” White House. June 2021. p. 17. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/ uploads/2021/06/National-Strategy-for-Countering-Domestic-Terrorism.pdf 2 “Homeland Threat Assessment.” Department of Homeland Security. October 2020. p. 18. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2020_10_06_homeland-threat-assessment.pdf maritime domain are most likely to experience active shooter incidents. The model’s high level of accuracy suggests that these risk indicators are highly predictive of extremist operations and incidents. Overall, these models provide guidance for practitioners about where extremist actors and violent incidents are most likely to emerge moving forward

EXAMINING ASEAN OUR EYES DEALING WITH REGIONAL CONTEXT IN COUNTER TERRORISM, RADICALISM, AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM

ASEAN currently contends with the global context emerging dynamically which brings about multidimensional challenges and threats. Dealing with this circumstances, ASEAN member states strengthen its capacity by enhancing regional cooperation and strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states so-called ASEAN Our Eyes. This initiative adopted for the sake of forestalling any possible threat posed by terrorism, radicalism, and violent extremism through timely strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states. This study will be analyzed with Regional Security Complex and International Cooperation theories to examine ASEAN Our Eyes based on its Terms of Reference (TOR). By using a qualitative method, the result of this study portrays that ASEAN Our Eyes is able to undermine the gaps in the realm of strategic information exchange in monitoring the movement of foreign terrorist fighters, violent extremists, radicals, and crime-terror nexus. However, it remains premature as a strategic measure to encounter those threats in the upcoming years. &nbsp

The Use of Counter Narratives as a Prevention and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) Communications-Based Measure: A Study of Muslim-American Undergraduate Students in Universities and Colleges in California

The purpose of this study is to contribute to efforts on countering violent extremism and radicalization. This research study measured attitudes towards violent extremist groups and the appeal of violent extremist ideologies among Muslim-American undergraduate students in universities and colleges in California. The target sample group for the study was drawn from Muslim-American undergraduate students from a university and community college within the state. The sample constituted 20 participants, comprised of four focus groups with 5 student respondents each. The researcher used the nomination process to identify participants from the target population. As part of the study’s methodology, a counter-narrative video from The International Center for the Studies of Violent Extremism (ICSVE) was given to the study participants and their responses recorded. The study findings show that the participants had little knowledge of terror organizations, appreciated the dangers of radicalization, and saw the necessity of counternarratives in countering radicalization. After watching the counternarrative video, the participants identified its effectiveness in portraying the negativity of the VE group in question. The findings demonstrate use of counternarratives could be effective in combating radicalization and sensitizing young people against VE involvement

Falling Through the Cracks: Black and South Asian Muslim Survival and Solidarity

Within the fractured systems and institutions that plague the US, two groups in particular have fallen through the cracks: Black and South Asian Muslims. According to a 2015 report published by human rights organization Muslim Anti Racism Collaborative, over 3.4 million Muslims currently live in the United States. Black Muslims and South Asian Muslims constitute about 20% and 60% of that population, respectively; however, both groups are disregarded and misrepresented in US discourse and media. In 1619, Black Muslim slaves were the first to bring Islam to the US and played a foundational role in the development of Islam in the Americas; yet, they are erased from Islamic and US historical memory. Similarly, South Asian Muslims have resided in the US since the 1700s, but it was not until 9/11 that they entered mainstream discourse as hostile terrorists who were criminalized and subjugated to state-sanctioned harassment and surveillance. Today, both groups are targets of counter-terrorism iniatives which shape their racial formations, racialized narratives, and intra-Muslim interactions. White supremacy and Islamophobia additionally serve as opportunities for connection as both groups come to understand their specific contexts of racism, xenophobia, citizenship, state violence, and criminalization. While overcoming their individual and distinct issues regarding racism, discrimination, and injustice, both groups have found pathways towards solidarity and allyship. This research paper examines the relationship between Black and South Asian Muslims, analyzes the differential impact of societal and state violence and hyper surveillance, and explores strategies for cross-racial solidarity