A review of physics-based models in prognostics: application to gears and bearings of rotating machinery

Health condition monitoring for rotating machinery has been developed for many years due to its potential to reduce the cost of the maintenance operations and increase availability. Covering aspects include sensors, signal processing, health assessment and decision-making. This article focuses on prognostics based on physics-based models. While the majority of the research in health condition monitoring focuses on data-driven techniques, physics-based techniques are particularly important if accuracy is a critical factor and testing is restricted. Moreover, the benefits of both approaches can be combined when data-driven and physics-based techniques are integrated. This article reviews the concept of physics-based models for prognostics. An overview of common failure modes of rotating machinery is provided along with the most relevant degradation mechanisms. The models available to represent these degradation mechanisms and their application for prognostics are discussed. Models that have not been applied to health condition monitoring, for example, wear due to metal–metal contact in hydrodynamic bearings, are also included due to its potential for health condition monitoring. The main contribution of this article is the identification of potential physics-based models for prognostics in rotating machinery

Major challenges in prognostics: study on benchmarking prognostic datasets

Even though prognostics has been defined to be one of the most difficult tasks in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM), many studies have reported promising results in recent years. The nature of the prognostics problem is different from diagnostics with its own challenges. There exist two major approaches to prognostics: data-driven and physics-based models. This paper aims to present the major challenges in both of these approaches by examining a number of published datasets for their suitability for analysis. Data-driven methods require sufficient samples that were run until failure whereas physics-based methods need physics of failure progression

Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review

With the privatization and intense competition that characterize the volatile energy sector, the gas turbine industry currently faces new challenges of increasing operational flexibility, reducing operating costs, improving reliability and availability while mitigating the environmental impact. In this complex, changing sector, the gas turbine community could address a set of these challenges by further development of high fidelity, more accurate and computationally efficient engine health assessment, diagnostic and prognostic systems. Recent studies have shown that engine gas-path performance monitoring still remains the cornerstone for making informed decisions in operation and maintenance of gas turbines. This paper offers a systematic review of recently developed engine performance monitoring, diagnostic and prognostic techniques. The inception of performance monitoring and its evolution over time, techniques used to establish a high-quality dataset using engine model performance adaptation, and effects of computationally intelligent techniques on promoting the implementation of engine fault diagnosis are reviewed. Moreover, recent developments in prognostics techniques designed to enhance the maintenance decision-making scheme and main causes of gas turbine performance deterioration are discussed to facilitate the fault identification module. The article aims to organize, evaluate and identify patterns and trends in the literature as well as recognize research gaps and recommend new research areas in the field of gas turbine performance-based monitoring. The presented insightful concepts provide experts, students or novice researchers and decision-makers working in the area of gas turbine engines with the state of the art for performance-based condition monitoring

Methodology for the Diagnosis of Hydromechanical Actuation Loops in Aircraft Engines

This document provides a method for on-board monitoring and on-ground diagnosis of a hydromechanical actuation loop such as those found in aircraft engines. First, a complete system analysis is performed to understand its behaviour and determine the main degradation modes. Then, system health indicators are defined and a method for their real time on-board extraction is addressed. Diagnosis is performed on-ground through classification of degradation signatures. To parameterize on-ground treatment, both a reference healthy state of indicators and degradations signatures are needed. The healthy distribution of indicators is obtained from data and a physics-based model is used to simulate degradations, quantify indicators sensibility and construct the signatures database. At last, algorithms are deployed and a statistical validation of the performances is conducted

Methodology for the Diagnosis of Hydromechanical Actuation Loops in Aircraft Engines

This document provides a method for on-board monitoring and on-ground diagnosis of a hydromechanical actuation loop such as those found in aircraft engines. First, a complete system analysis is performed to understand its behaviour and determine the main degradation modes. Then, system health indicators are defined and a method for their real time on-board extraction is addressed. Diagnosis is performed on-ground through classification of degradation signatures. To parameterize on-ground treatment, both a reference healthy state of indicators and degradations signatures are needed. The healthy distribution of indicators is obtained from data and a physics-based model is used to simulate degradations, quantify indicators sensibility and construct the signatures database. At last, algorithms are deployed and a statistical validation of the performances is conducted

A Smart Modular Wireless System for Condition Monitoring Data Acquisition

Smart sensors, big data, the cloud and distributed data processing are some of the most interning changes in the way we collect, manage and treat data in recent years. These changes have not significantly influenced the common practices in condition monitoring for shipping. In part this is due to the reduced trust in data security, data ownership issues, lack of technological integration and obscurity of direct benefit. This paper presents a method of incorporating smart sensor techniques and distributed processing in data acquisition for condition monitoring to assist decision support for maintenance actions addressing these inhibitors

An Approach to the Health Monitoring of the Fuel System of a Turbofan

This paper focuses on the monitoring of the fuel system of a turbofan which is the core organ of an aircraft engine control system. The paper provides a method for real time on-board monitoring and on-ground diagnosis of one of its subsystems: the hydromechanical actuation loop. First, a system analysis is performed to highlight the main degradation modes and potential failures. Then, an approach for a real-time extraction of salient features named indicators is addressed. On-ground diagnosis is performed through a learning algorithm and a classification method. Parameterization of the on-ground part needs a reference healthy state of the indicators and the signatures of the degradations. The healthy distribution of the indicators is measured on field data whereas a physical model of the system is utilized to simulate degradations, quantify indicators sensibility and construct the signatures. Eventually, algorithms are deployed and statistical validation is performed by the computation of key performance indicators (KPI)