a cross-entropy based multiagent approach for multiclass activity chain modeling and simulation

This paper attempts to model complex destination-chain, departure time and route choices based on activity plan implementation and proposes an arc-based cross entropy method for solving approximately the dynamic user equilibrium in multiagent-based multiclass network context. A multiagent-based dynamic activity chain model is developed, combining travelers' day-to-day learning process in the presence of both traffic flow and activity supply dynamics. The learning process towards user equilibrium in multiagent systems is based on the framework of Bellman's principle of optimality, and iteratively solved by the cross entropy method. A numerical example is implemented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method on a multiclass queuing network.dynamic traffic assignment, cross entropy method, activity chain, multiagent, Bellman equation

a cross-entropy based multiagent approach for multiclass activity chain modeling and simulation

This paper attempts to model complex destination-chain, departure time and route choices based on activity plan implementation and proposes an arc-based cross entropy method for solving approximately the dynamic user equilibrium in multiagent-based multiclass network context. A multiagent-based dynamic activity chain model is developed, combining travelers' day-to-day learning process in the presence of both traffic flow and activity supply dynamics. The learning process towards user equilibrium in multiagent systems is based on the framework of Bellman's principle of optimality, and iteratively solved by the cross entropy method. A numerical example is implemented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method on a multiclass queuing network

Modeling and optimizing network infrastructure for autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has matured sufficiently to be in testing on public roads. However, traffic models of AVs are still in development. Most previous work has studied AV technologies in micro-simulation. The purpose of this dissertation is to model and optimize AV technologies for large city networks to predict how AVs might affect city traffic patterns and travel behaviors. To accomplish these goals, we construct a dynamic network loading model for AVs, consisting of link and node models of AV technologies, which is used to calculate time-dependent travel times in dynamic traffic assignment. We then study several applications of the dynamic network loading to predict how AVs might affect travel demand and traffic congestion. AVs admit reduced perception-reaction times through technologies such as (cooperative) adaptive cruise control, which can reduce following headways and increase capacity. Previous work has studied these in micro-simulation, but we construct a mesoscopic simulation model for analyses on large networks. To study scenarios with both autonomous and conventional vehicles, we modify the kinematic wave theory to include multiple classes of flow. The flow-density relationship also changes in space and time with the class proportions. We present multiclass cell transmission model and prove that it is a Godunov approximation to the multiclass kinematic wave theory. We also develop a car-following model to predict the fundamental diagram at arbitrary proportions of AVs. Complete market penetration scenarios admit dynamic lane reversal -- changing lane direction at high frequencies to more optimally allocate road capacity. We develop a kinematic wave theory in which the number of lanes changes in space and time, and approximately solve it with a cell transmission model. We study two methods of determining lane direction. First, we present a mixed integer linear program for system optimal dynamic traffic assignment. Since this program is computationally difficult to solve, we also study dynamic lane reversal on a single link with deterministic and stochastic demands. The resulting policy is shown to significantly reduce travel times on a city network. AVs also admit reservation-based intersection control, which can make greater use of intersection capacity than traffic signals. AVs communicate with the intersection manager to reserve space-time paths through the intersection. We create a mesoscopic node model by starting with the conflict point variant of reservations and aggregating conflict points into capacity-constrained conflict regions. This model yields an integer program that can be adapted to arbitrary objective functions. To motivate optimization, we present several examples on theoretical and realistic networks demonstrating that naïve reservation policies can perform worse than traffic signals. These occur due to asymmetric intersections affecting optimal capacity allocation and/or user equilibrium route choice behavior. To improve reservations, we adapt the decentralized backpressure wireless packet routing and P0 traffic signal policies for reservations. Results show significant reductions in travel times on a city network. Having developed link and node models, we explore how AVs might affect travel demand and congestion. First, we study how capacity increases and reservations might affect freeway, arterial, and city networks. Capacity increases consistently reduced congestion on all networks, but reservations were not always beneficial. Then, we use dynamic traffic assignment within a four-step planning model, adding the mode choice of empty repositioning trips to avoid parking costs. Results show that allowing empty repositioning to encourage adoption of AVs could reduce congestion. Also, once all vehicles are AVs, congestion will still be significantly reduced. Finally, we present a framework to use the dynamic network loading model to study shared AVs. Results show that shared AVs could reduce congestion if used in certain ways, such as with dynamic ride-sharing. However, shared AVs also cause significant congestion. To summarize, this dissertation presents a complete mesoscopic simulation model of AVs that could be used for a variety of studies of AVs by planners and practitioners. This mesoscopic model includes new node and link technologies that significantly improve travel times over existing infrastructure. In addition, we motivate and present more optimal policies for these AV technologies. Finally, we study several travel behavior scenarios to provide insights about how AV technologies might affect future traffic congestion. The models in this dissertation will provide a basis for future network analyses of AV technologies.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Dynamic traffic assignment: model classifications and recent advances in travel choice principles

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) has been studied for more than four decades and numerous reviews of this research area have been conducted. This review focuses on the travel choice principle and the classification of DTA models, and is supplementary to the existing reviews. The implications of the travel choice principle for the existence and uniqueness of DTA solutions are discussed, and the interrelation between the travel choice principle and the traffic flow component is explained using the nonlinear complementarity problem, the variational inequality problem, the mathematical programming problem, and the fixed point problem formulations. This paper also points out that all of the reviewed travel choice principles are extended from those used in static traffic assignment. There are also many classifications of DTA models, in which each classification addresses one aspect of DTA modeling. Finally, some future research directions are identified.postprin

Network Maintenance and Capacity Management with Applications in Transportation

abstract: This research develops heuristics to manage both mandatory and optional network capacity reductions to better serve the network flows. The main application discussed relates to transportation networks, and flow cost relates to travel cost of users of the network. Temporary mandatory capacity reductions are required by maintenance activities. The objective of managing maintenance activities and the attendant temporary network capacity reductions is to schedule the required segment closures so that all maintenance work can be completed on time, and the total flow cost over the maintenance period is minimized for different types of flows. The goal of optional network capacity reduction is to selectively reduce the capacity of some links to improve the overall efficiency of user-optimized flows, where each traveler takes the route that minimizes the traveler’s trip cost. In this dissertation, both managing mandatory and optional network capacity reductions are addressed with the consideration of network-wide flow diversions due to changed link capacities. This research first investigates the maintenance scheduling in transportation networks with service vehicles (e.g., truck fleets and passenger transport fleets), where these vehicles are assumed to take the system-optimized routes that minimize the total travel cost of the fleet. This problem is solved with the randomized fixed-and-optimize heuristic developed. This research also investigates the maintenance scheduling in networks with multi-modal traffic that consists of (1) regular human-driven cars with user-optimized routing and (2) self-driving vehicles with system-optimized routing. An iterative mixed flow assignment algorithm is developed to obtain the multi-modal traffic assignment resulting from a maintenance schedule. The genetic algorithm with multi-point crossover is applied to obtain a good schedule. Based on the Braess’ paradox that removing some links may alleviate the congestion of user-optimized flows, this research generalizes the Braess’ paradox to reduce the capacity of selected links to improve the efficiency of the resultant user-optimized flows. A heuristic is developed to identify links to reduce capacity, and the corresponding capacity reduction amounts, to get more efficient total flows. Experiments on real networks demonstrate the generalized Braess’ paradox exists in reality, and the heuristic developed solves real-world test cases even when commercial solvers fail.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Industrial Engineering 201

Congestion pricing in a world of self-driving vehicles: An analysis of different strategies in alternative future scenarios

The introduction of autonomous (self-driving) and shared autonomous vehicles (AVs and SAVs) will affect travel destinations and distances, mode choice, and congestion. From a traffic perspective, although some congestion reduction may be achieved (thanks to fewer crashes and tighter headways), car-trip frequencies and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are likely to rise significantly, reducing the benefits of driverless vehicles. Congestion pricing (CP) and road tolls are key tools for moderating demand and incentivizing more socially and environmentally optimal travel choices. This work develops multiple CP and tolling strategies in alternative future scenarios, and investigates their effects on the Austin, Texas network conditions and traveler welfare, using the agent-based simulation model MATSim. Results suggest that, while all pricing strategies reduce congestion, their social welfare impacts differ in meaningful ways. More complex and advanced strategies perform better in terms of traffic conditions and traveler welfare, depending on the development of the mobility landscape of autonomous driving. The possibility to refund users by reinvesting toll revenues as traveler budgets plays a salient role in the overall efficiency of each CP strategy as well as in the public acceptability

Evaluation of traffic assignment models through simulation

Assignment methodologies attempt to determine the traffic flow over each network arc based on its characteristics and the total flow over the entire area. There are several methodologies—some fast and others that are more complex and require more time to complete the calculation. In this study, we evaluated different assignment methodologies using a computer simulation and tested the results in a specific case study. The results showed that the “all-or-nothing” methods and the incremental assignment methods generally yield results with an unacceptable level of error unless the traffic is divided into four or more equal parts. The method of successive averages (MSA) was valid starting from a relatively low number of iterations, while the user equilibrium methodologies (approximated using the Frank and Wolfe algorithm) were valid starting from an even lower number of iterations. These results may be useful to researchers in the field of computer simulation and planners who apply these methodologies in similar cases.Research Contract entitled “Simulación y Análisis de Tráfico dentro del Estudio Informativo de la Autovía Orbital B-40” (Simulation and Traffic Analysis within the Study Report of the B-40 Orbital Highway) between GPYO Innova, S.L. and the University of Burgos (Spain) with reference number W24T06