Structural and topological phase transitions on the German Stock Exchange

We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two transitions of the topology of a complex network representing FSE were found. First transition is from a hierarchical scale-free MST representing the stock market before the recent worldwide financial crash, to a superstar-like MST decorated by a scale-free hierarchy of trees representing the market's state for the period containing the crash. Subsequently, a transition is observed from this transient, (meta)stable state of the crash, to a hierarchical scale-free MST decorated by several star-like trees after the worldwide financial crash. The phase transitions observed are analogous to the ones we obtained earlier for the Warsaw Stock Exchange and more pronounced than those found by Onnela-Chakraborti-Kaski-Kert\'esz for S&P 500 index in the vicinity of Black Monday (October 19, 1987) and also in the vicinity of January 1, 1998. Our results provide an empirical foundation for the future theory of dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on financial markets

Regimes of heating and dynamical response in driven many-body localized systems

We explore the response of many-body localized (MBL) systems to periodic driving of arbitrary amplitude, focusing on the rate at which they exchange energy with the drive. To this end, we introduce an infinite-temperature generalization of the effective "heating rate" in terms of the spread of a random walk in energy space. We compute this heating rate numerically and estimate it analytically in various regimes. When the drive amplitude is much smaller than the frequency, this effective heating rate is given by linear response theory with a coefficient that is proportional to the optical conductivity; in the opposite limit, the response is nonlinear and the heating rate is a nontrivial power-law of time. We discuss the mechanisms underlying this crossover in the MBL phase, and comment on its implications for the subdiffusive thermal phase near the MBL transition.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figure

Output-Feedback Control of Nonlinear Systems using Control Contraction Metrics and Convex Optimization

Control contraction metrics (CCMs) are a new approach to nonlinear control design based on contraction theory. The resulting design problems are expressed as pointwise linear matrix inequalities and are and well-suited to solution via convex optimization. In this paper, we extend the theory on CCMs by showing that a pair of "dual" observer and controller problems can be solved using pointwise linear matrix inequalities, and that when a solution exists a separation principle holds. That is, a stabilizing output-feedback controller can be found. The procedure is demonstrated using a benchmark problem of nonlinear control: the Moore-Greitzer jet engine compressor model.Comment: Conference submissio

A survey of random processes with reinforcement

The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are discussed in statistics, biology, economics and a number of other areas.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-PS094 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Statistical-Mechanical Measure of Stochastic Spiking Coherence in A Population of Inhibitory Subthreshold Neurons

By varying the noise intensity, we study stochastic spiking coherence (i.e., collective coherence between noise-induced neural spikings) in an inhibitory population of subthreshold neurons (which cannot fire spontaneously without noise). This stochastic spiking coherence may be well visualized in the raster plot of neural spikes. For a coherent case, partially-occupied "stripes" (composed of spikes and indicating collective coherence) are formed in the raster plot. This partial occupation occurs due to "stochastic spike skipping" which is well shown in the multi-peaked interspike interval histogram. The main purpose of our work is to quantitatively measure the degree of stochastic spiking coherence seen in the raster plot. We introduce a new spike-based coherence measure $M_s$ by considering the occupation pattern and the pacing pattern of spikes in the stripes. In particular, the pacing degree between spikes is determined in a statistical-mechanical way by quantifying the average contribution of (microscopic) individual spikes to the (macroscopic) ensemble-averaged global potential. This "statistical-mechanical" measure $M_s$ is in contrast to the conventional measures such as the "thermodynamic" order parameter (which concerns the time-averaged fluctuations of the macroscopic global potential), the "microscopic" correlation-based measure (based on the cross-correlation between the microscopic individual potentials), and the measures of precise spike timing (based on the peri-stimulus time histogram). In terms of $M_s$, we quantitatively characterize the stochastic spiking coherence, and find that $M_s$ reflects the degree of collective spiking coherence seen in the raster plot very well. Hence, the "statistical-mechanical" spike-based measure $M_s$ may be used usefully to quantify the degree of stochastic spiking coherence in a statistical-mechanical way.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, to appear in the J. Comput. Neurosc

How stochasticity and emergencies disrupt the surgical schedule

In health care system, the operating theatre is recognized as having an important role, notably in terms of generated income and cost. Its management, and in particular its scheduling, is thus a critical activity, and has been the sub ject of many studies. However, the stochasticity of the operating theatre environment is rarely considered while it has considerable effect on the actual working of a surgical unit. In practice, the planners keep a safety margin, let’s say 15% of the capacity, in order to absorb the effect of unpredictable events. However, this safety margin is most often chosen sub jectively, from experience. In this paper, our goal is to rationalize this process. We want to give insights to managers in order to deal with the stochasticity of their environment, at a tactical–strategic decision level. For this, we propose an analytical approach that takes account of the stochastic operating times as well as the disruptions caused by emergency arrivals. From our model, various performance measures can be computed: the emergency disruption rate, the waiting time for an emergency, the distribution of the working time, the probability of overtime, the average overtime, etc. In particular, our tool is able to tell how many operations can be scheduled per day in order to keep the overtime limited.health care, surgical schedule, emergencies, Markov chain.