47,379 research outputs found
Risk-Averse Model Predictive Operation Control of Islanded Microgrids
In this paper we present a risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) scheme
for the operation of islanded microgrids with very high share of renewable
energy sources. The proposed scheme mitigates the effect of errors in the
determination of the probability distribution of renewable infeed and load.
This allows to use less complex and less accurate forecasting methods and to
formulate low-dimensional scenario-based optimisation problems which are
suitable for control applications. Additionally, the designer may trade
performance for safety by interpolating between the conventional stochastic and
worst-case MPC formulations. The presented risk-averse MPC problem is
formulated as a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained quadratic problem and
its favourable characteristics are demonstrated in a case study. This includes
a sensitivity analysis that illustrates the robustness to load and renewable
power prediction errors
A Grey-Box Approach to Automated Mechanism Design
Auctions play an important role in electronic commerce, and have been used to
solve problems in distributed computing. Automated approaches to designing
effective auction mechanisms are helpful in reducing the burden of traditional
game theoretic, analytic approaches and in searching through the large space of
possible auction mechanisms. This paper presents an approach to automated
mechanism design (AMD) in the domain of double auctions. We describe a novel
parametrized space of double auctions, and then introduce an evolutionary
search method that searches this space of parameters. The approach evaluates
auction mechanisms using the framework of the TAC Market Design Game and
relates the performance of the markets in that game to their constituent parts
using reinforcement learning. Experiments show that the strongest mechanisms we
found using this approach not only win the Market Design Game against known,
strong opponents, but also exhibit desirable economic properties when they run
in isolation.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables, and 1 algorithm. Extended abstract to
appear in the proceedings of AAMAS'201
Technical note: Bias and the quantification of stability
Research on bias in machine learning algorithms has generally been concerned with the
impact of bias on predictive accuracy. We believe that there are other factors that should
also play a role in the evaluation of bias. One such factor is the stability of the algorithm;
in other words, the repeatability of the results. If we obtain two sets of data from the same
phenomenon, with the same underlying probability distribution, then we would like our
learning algorithm to induce approximately the same concepts from both sets of data. This
paper introduces a method for quantifying stability, based on a measure of the agreement
between concepts. We also discuss the relationships among stability, predictive accuracy,
and bias
Auto-WEKA: Combined Selection and Hyperparameter Optimization of Classification Algorithms
Many different machine learning algorithms exist; taking into account each
algorithm's hyperparameters, there is a staggeringly large number of possible
alternatives overall. We consider the problem of simultaneously selecting a
learning algorithm and setting its hyperparameters, going beyond previous work
that addresses these issues in isolation. We show that this problem can be
addressed by a fully automated approach, leveraging recent innovations in
Bayesian optimization. Specifically, we consider a wide range of feature
selection techniques (combining 3 search and 8 evaluator methods) and all
classification approaches implemented in WEKA, spanning 2 ensemble methods, 10
meta-methods, 27 base classifiers, and hyperparameter settings for each
classifier. On each of 21 popular datasets from the UCI repository, the KDD Cup
09, variants of the MNIST dataset and CIFAR-10, we show classification
performance often much better than using standard selection/hyperparameter
optimization methods. We hope that our approach will help non-expert users to
more effectively identify machine learning algorithms and hyperparameter
settings appropriate to their applications, and hence to achieve improved
performance.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure
A stochastic programming model for dynamic portfolio management with financial derivatives
Stochastic optimization models have been extensively applied to financial portfolios and have proven their effectiveness in asset and asset-liability management. Occasionally, however, they have been applied to dynamic portfolio problems including not only assets traded in secondary markets but also derivative contracts such as options or futures with their dedicated payoff functions. Such extension allows the construction of asymmetric payoffs for hedging or speculative purposes but also leads to several mathematical issues. Derivatives-based nonlinear portfolios in a discrete multistage stochastic programming (MSP) framework can be potentially very beneficial to shape dynamically a portfolio return distribution and attain superior performance. In this article we present a portfolio model with equity options, which extends significantly previous efforts in this area, and analyse the potential of such extension from a modeling and methodological viewpoints. We consider an asset universe and model portfolio set-up including equity, bonds, money market, a volatility-based exchange-traded-fund (ETF) and over-the-counter (OTC) option contracts on the equity. Relying on this market structure we formulate and analyse, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, a comprehensive set of optimal option strategies in a discrete framework, including canonical protective puts, covered calls and straddles, as well as more advanced combined strategies based on equity options and the volatility index. The problem formulation relies on a data-driven scenario generation method for asset returns and option prices consistent with arbitrage-free conditions and incomplete market assumptions. The joint inclusion of option contracts and the VIX as asset class in a dynamic portfolio problem extends previous efforts in the domain of volatility-driven optimal policies. By introducing an optimal trade-off problem based on expected wealth and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), we formulate the problem as a stochastic linear program and present an extended set of numerical results across different market phases, to discuss the interplay among asset classes and options, relevant to financial engineers and fund managers. We find that options’ portfolios and trading in options strengthen an effective tail risk control, and help shaping portfolios returns’ distributions, consistently with an investor's risk attitude. Furthermore the introduction of a volatility index in the asset universe, jointly with equity options, leads to superior risk-adjusted returns, both in- and out-of-sample, as shown in the final case-study
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