Understanding, Modeling and Managing Longevity Risk: Key Issues and Main Challenges

This article investigates the latest developments in longevity risk modelling, and explores the key risk management challenges for both the financial and insurance industries. The article discusses key definitions that are crucial for the enhancement of the way longevity risk is understood; providing a global view of the practical issues for longevity-linked insurance and pension products that have evolved concurrently with the steady increase in life expectancy since 1960s. In addition, the article frames the recent and forthcoming developments that are expected to action industry-wide changes as more effective regulation, designed to better assess and efficiently manage inherited risks, is adopted. Simultaneously, the evolution of longevity is intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through what are known as Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). Thus, the article will examine the emerging scenarios, and will finally highlight some important potential developments for longevity risk management from a financial perspective with reference to the most relevant modelling and pricing practices in the banking industry.Longevity Risk ; securitization ; risk transfer ; incomplete market ; life insurance ; stochastic mortality ; pensions ; long term interest rate ; regulation ; population dynamics

Understanding, Modeling and Managing Longevity Risk: Key Issues and Main Challenges

International audienceThis article investigates the latest developments in longevity risk modelling, and explores the key risk management challenges for both the financial and insurance industries. The article discusses key definitions that are crucial for the enhancement of the way longevity risk is understood; providing a global view of the practical issues for longevity-linked insurance and pension products that have evolved concurrently with the steady increase in life expectancy since 1960s. In addition, the article frames the recent and forthcoming developments that are expected to action industry-wide changes as more effective regulation, designed to better assess and efficiently manage inherited risks, is adopted. Simultaneously, the evolution of longevity is intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through what are known as Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). Thus, the article will examine the emerging scenarios, and will finally highlight some important potential developments for longevity risk management from a financial perspective with reference to the most relevant modelling and pricing practices in the banking industry

Migratory equilibria with invested remittances

L'article étudie la migration économique dans le cadre d'un modèle où les migrants peuvent investir une partie de leur épargne dans le pays d'origine. En particulier, un équilibre avec migration partielle est faisable. Dans ce cas, on démontre et teste empiriquement une relation positive entre nombre de migrants et le montant du transfert par migrant.Migration ; Motif d'investissement ; Politique migrante ; Transfert des migrants

Migratory equilibria with invested remittances

This paper analyzes international migrations when migrants invest part of their income in their origin country. This investment contributes to increase capital intensity and wages in the origin country, thus reducing the scope for migrating. We show that a non-total migratory equilibrium can exist if the foreign wage is not too high, and/or migratory and transfer costs are not too low. Exogenous shocks, such as an increase in the foreign wage, lead to an increase in optimal remittances per migrant, and a higher wage in the origin country. Yet the net effect on the equilibrium number of migrants is positive. Hence, in equilibrium, optimal remittances and number of migrants are positively related. We use data from twenty five countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia in 2000 in order to test for this implication of our model. OLS and bootstrap estimates put forward a positive elasticity of the number of migrants with respect to remittances per migrant. Policy implications follow.Investment motive; Migration; Migratory policy; Remittances

Modeling and Numerical Simulations of Two-Phase Ignition in Gas Turbine

In order to meet the new international environmental regulations while maintaining a strong economic competitiveness, innovative technologies of aeronautical combustion chambers are developed. These technologies must guarantee fast relight in case of extinction, which is one of the most critical and complex aspects of engine design. Control of this phase involves a thorough understanding of the physical phenomena involved. In this thesis the full two-phase ignition sequence of an aeronautical engine has been studied, from the breakdown of the spark plug to thepropagation of the flame in the complete engine. For this purpose, Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) using a detailed description of the liquid phase (Euler-Lagrange formalism) and of the combustion process (Analytically Reduced Chemistry) were performed. The results also led to the development of a simplified model for the prediction of ignition probability map, which is particularly useful for the design of combustion chambers

Assessing the suitability of ship design for human factors issues associated with evacuation and normal operations

Evaluating ship layout for human factors (HF) issues using simulation software such as maritimeEXODUS can be a long and complex process. The analysis requires the identification of relevant evaluation scenarios; encompassing evacuation and normal operations; the development of appropriate measures which can be used to gauge the performance of crew and vessel and finally; the interpretation of considerable simulation data. In this paper we present a systematic and transparent methodology for assessing the HF performance of ship design which is both discriminating and diagnostic. The methodology is demonstrated using two variants of a hypothetical naval ship

From Pollution to Solution: A global assessment of marine litter and plastic pollution

This assessment describes the far-reaching impacts of plastics in our oceans and across the planet. Plastics are a marker of the current geological era, the Anthropocene (Zalasiewicz et al. 2016). They have given their name to a new microbial habitat known as the plastisphere (Amaral-Zettler et al. 2020; see Glossary). Increased awareness of the negative impacts of microplastics on marine ecosystems and human health has led them to be referred to as a type of "Ocean PM2.5" akin to air pollution (i.e. particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometres [?m] in diameter) (Shu 2018). With cumulative global production of primary plastic between 1950 and 2017 estimated at 9,200 million metric tons and forecast to reach 34 billion metric tons by 2050 (Geyer 2020) (Figure i), the most urgent issues now to be addressed are how to reduce the volume of uncontrolled or mismanaged waste streams going into the oceans (Andrades et al. 2018) and how to increase the level of recycling. Of the 7 billion tons of plastic waste generated globally so far, less than 10 per cent has been recycled (Geyer 2020)