Validating Variational Bayes Linear Regression Method With Multi-Central Datasets.

PurposeTo validate the prediction accuracy of variational Bayes linear regression (VBLR) with two datasets external to the training dataset.MethodThe training dataset consisted of 7268 eyes of 4278 subjects from the University of Tokyo Hospital. The Japanese Archive of Multicentral Databases in Glaucoma (JAMDIG) dataset consisted of 271 eyes of 177 patients, and the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) dataset includes 248 eyes of 173 patients, which were used for validation. Prediction accuracy was compared between the VBLR and ordinary least squared linear regression (OLSLR). First, OLSLR and VBLR were carried out using total deviation (TD) values at each of the 52 test points from the second to fourth visual fields (VFs) (VF2-4) to 2nd to 10th VF (VF2-10) of each patient in JAMDIG and DIGS datasets, and the TD values of the 11th VF test were predicted every time. The predictive accuracy of each method was compared through the root mean squared error (RMSE) statistic.ResultsOLSLR RMSEs with the JAMDIG and DIGS datasets were between 31 and 4.3 dB, and between 19.5 and 3.9 dB. On the other hand, VBLR RMSEs with JAMDIG and DIGS datasets were between 5.0 and 3.7, and between 4.6 and 3.6 dB. There was statistically significant difference between VBLR and OLSLR for both datasets at every series (VF2-4 to VF2-10) (P < 0.01 for all tests). However, there was no statistically significant difference in VBLR RMSEs between JAMDIG and DIGS datasets at any series of VFs (VF2-2 to VF2-10) (P > 0.05).ConclusionsVBLR outperformed OLSLR to predict future VF progression, and the VBLR has a potential to be a helpful tool at clinical settings

Investigating Trend in Defined Pension Contribution Based on Trend Projection Model

Forecast is simply predicting the future based on current information. Pension forecast help to predict the future with respect to some expected or proposed changes. This short note is designed to investigate trend in defined contribution (DC)/ defined benefit (DB) with regard to age falsification. The causes and effects of trends are investigated using trend projection model. The analysis is based on time series data to build and validate the model. SAS/IML software is used to program the projection model and the MATLAB software is used for the graphical analysis. Statistical summary and margin of error are computed to advice management on strategic future plans and expenditure. The duty of the analyst is to advice management based on the output of the simulation.

Predicting Human Cooperation

The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection), when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The computational model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is extremely successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.Comment: Added references. New inline citation style. Added small portions of text. Re-compiled Rmarkdown file with updated ggplot2 so small aesthetic changes to plot

Improved method for SNR prediction in machine-learning-based test

This paper applies an improved method for testing the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of Analogue-to-Digital Converters (ADC). In previous work, a noisy and nonlinear pulse signal is exploited as the input stimulus to obtain the signature results of ADC. By applying a machine-learning-based approach, the dynamic parameters can be predicted by using the signature results. However, it can only estimate the SNR accurately within a certain range. In order to overcome this limitation, an improved method based on work is applied in this work. It is validated on the Labview model of a 12-bit 80 Ms/s pipelined ADC with a pulse- wave input signal of 3 LSB noise and 7-bit nonlinear rising and falling edges

Memory-full context-aware predictive mobility management in dual connectivity 5G networks

Network densification with small cell deployment is being considered as one of the dominant themes in the fifth generation (5G) cellular system. Despite the capacity gains, such deployment scenarios raise several challenges from mobility management perspective. The small cell size, which implies a small cell residence time, will increase the handover (HO) rate dramatically. Consequently, the HO latency will become a critical consideration in the 5G era. The latter requires an intelligent, fast and light-weight HO procedure with minimal signalling overhead. In this direction, we propose a memory-full context-aware HO scheme with mobility prediction to achieve the aforementioned objectives. We consider a dual connectivity radio access network architecture with logical separation between control and data planes because it offers relaxed constraints in implementing the predictive approaches. The proposed scheme predicts future HO events along with the expected HO time by combining radio frequency performance to physical proximity along with the user context in terms of speed, direction and HO history. To minimise the processing and the storage requirements whilst improving the prediction performance, a user-specific prediction triggering threshold is proposed. The prediction outcome is utilised to perform advance HO signalling whilst suspending the periodic transmission of measurement reports. Analytical and simulation results show that the proposed scheme provides promising gains over the conventional approach

Tensor Representation in High-Frequency Financial Data for Price Change Prediction

Nowadays, with the availability of massive amount of trade data collected, the dynamics of the financial markets pose both a challenge and an opportunity for high frequency traders. In order to take advantage of the rapid, subtle movement of assets in High Frequency Trading (HFT), an automatic algorithm to analyze and detect patterns of price change based on transaction records must be available. The multichannel, time-series representation of financial data naturally suggests tensor-based learning algorithms. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of two multilinear methods for the mid-price prediction problem against other existing methods. The experiments in a large scale dataset which contains more than 4 millions limit orders show that by utilizing tensor representation, multilinear models outperform vector-based approaches and other competing ones.Comment: accepted in SSCI 2017, typos fixe