2,208 research outputs found
Statistical Traffic State Analysis in Large-scale Transportation Networks Using Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization
Statistical traffic data analysis is a hot topic in traffic management and
control. In this field, current research progresses focus on analyzing traffic
flows of individual links or local regions in a transportation network. Less
attention are paid to the global view of traffic states over the entire
network, which is important for modeling large-scale traffic scenes. Our aim is
precisely to propose a new methodology for extracting spatio-temporal traffic
patterns, ultimately for modeling large-scale traffic dynamics, and long-term
traffic forecasting. We attack this issue by utilizing Locality-Preserving
Non-negative Matrix Factorization (LPNMF) to derive low-dimensional
representation of network-level traffic states. Clustering is performed on the
compact LPNMF projections to unveil typical spatial patterns and temporal
dynamics of network-level traffic states. We have tested the proposed method on
simulated traffic data generated for a large-scale road network, and reported
experimental results validate the ability of our approach for extracting
meaningful large-scale space-time traffic patterns. Furthermore, the derived
clustering results provide an intuitive understanding of spatial-temporal
characteristics of traffic flows in the large-scale network, and a basis for
potential long-term forecasting.Comment: IET Intelligent Transport Systems (2013
Modeling Relational Data via Latent Factor Blockmodel
In this paper we address the problem of modeling relational data, which
appear in many applications such as social network analysis, recommender
systems and bioinformatics. Previous studies either consider latent feature
based models but disregarding local structure in the network, or focus
exclusively on capturing local structure of objects based on latent blockmodels
without coupling with latent characteristics of objects. To combine the
benefits of the previous work, we propose a novel model that can simultaneously
incorporate the effect of latent features and covariates if any, as well as the
effect of latent structure that may exist in the data. To achieve this, we
model the relation graph as a function of both latent feature factors and
latent cluster memberships of objects to collectively discover globally
predictive intrinsic properties of objects and capture latent block structure
in the network to improve prediction performance. We also develop an
optimization transfer algorithm based on the generalized EM-style strategy to
learn the latent factors. We prove the efficacy of our proposed model through
the link prediction task and cluster analysis task, and extensive experiments
on the synthetic data and several real world datasets suggest that our proposed
LFBM model outperforms the other state of the art approaches in the evaluated
tasks.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figure
Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators
(EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained
from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional
representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017
using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used
to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a
non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those
obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin
transaction volume
MOOCs Meet Measurement Theory: A Topic-Modelling Approach
This paper adapts topic models to the psychometric testing of MOOC students
based on their online forum postings. Measurement theory from education and
psychology provides statistical models for quantifying a person's attainment of
intangible attributes such as attitudes, abilities or intelligence. Such models
infer latent skill levels by relating them to individuals' observed responses
on a series of items such as quiz questions. The set of items can be used to
measure a latent skill if individuals' responses on them conform to a Guttman
scale. Such well-scaled items differentiate between individuals and inferred
levels span the entire range from most basic to the advanced. In practice,
education researchers manually devise items (quiz questions) while optimising
well-scaled conformance. Due to the costly nature and expert requirements of
this process, psychometric testing has found limited use in everyday teaching.
We aim to develop usable measurement models for highly-instrumented MOOC
delivery platforms, by using participation in automatically-extracted online
forum topics as items. The challenge is to formalise the Guttman scale
educational constraint and incorporate it into topic models. To favour topics
that automatically conform to a Guttman scale, we introduce a novel
regularisation into non-negative matrix factorisation-based topic modelling. We
demonstrate the suitability of our approach with both quantitative experiments
on three Coursera MOOCs, and with a qualitative survey of topic
interpretability on two MOOCs by domain expert interviews.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; accepted into AAAI'201
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