Early hospital mortality prediction using vital signals

Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the ICU, achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, preprint of accepted paper in IEEE&ACM CHASE 2018 and published in Smart Health journa

Benchmarking machine learning models on multi-centre eICU critical care dataset

Progress of machine learning in critical care has been difficult to track, in part due to absence of public benchmarks. Other fields of research (such as computer vision and natural language processing) have established various competitions and public benchmarks. Recent availability of large clinical datasets has enabled the possibility of establishing public benchmarks. Taking advantage of this opportunity, we propose a public benchmark suite to address four areas of critical care, namely mortality prediction, estimation of length of stay, patient phenotyping and risk of decompensation. We define each task and compare the performance of both clinical models as well as baseline and deep learning models using eICU critical care dataset of around 73,000 patients. This is the first public benchmark on a multi-centre critical care dataset, comparing the performance of clinical gold standard with our predictive model. We also investigate the impact of numerical variables as well as handling of categorical variables on each of the defined tasks. The source code, detailing our methods and experiments is publicly available such that anyone can replicate our results and build upon our work.Comment: Source code to replicate the results https://github.com/mostafaalishahi/eICU_Benchmar