Bayes\u27 Law, Sequential Uncertainties, and Evidence of Causation in Toxic Tort Cases

Judges are the gatekeepers of evidence. Arguably, the most difficult duty for a judicial gatekeeper is to screen the reliability of expert opinions in scientific fields such as medicine that are beyond the ken of most judges. Yet, judges have a duty to scrutinize such expert opinion evidence to determine its reliability and admissibility. In toxic tort cases, the issue of causation-whether the alleged exposures actually caused the plaintiffs injury-is nearly always the central dispute, and determining admissibility of expert causation opinion is a daunting challenge for most judges. We present a comprehensive review of the courts\u27 struggles with the screening of scientific evidence in such cases. In addition, we propose an approach to the screening of causation opinions based on probability science and logic. Central to this approach is Bayes\u27 Law, a statistical tool that courts can use to analyze the extrinsic reliability of proffered causation testimony. We explain Bayes\u27 Law and illustrate its potential application for evaluating the reliability of medical and scientific causation testimony. All evidence is probabilistic. There are uncertainties attending all testimony, not only because the honesty or objectivity of witnesses may be doubtful, but also because even honest and unbiased witnesses may be mistaken in their perceptions. Reliability of causation evidence depends on both sensitivity and specificity of the tests used to determine causation. Highly sensitive tests of causation reflect an ability to identify a high percentage of those with the agent-induced disease, whereas highly specific tests of causation reflect an ability to reject a high percentage of those who have the disease, but not induced by the agent at issue. According to Bayes\u27 Law, the reliability of causation opinion depends not only on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests employed by the causation expert, but also on the base rate of the agent-induced disease in the population. Bayes\u27 Law dictates that the lower the rate of the agent-induced disease in the population, the less reliable the opinion that the agent at issue in fact caused the plaintiffs disease given certain levels of sensitivity and specificity. The base-rate problem and its effect on reliability of causation opinions are overlooked by judges when scrutinizing the reliability of proffered causation evidence. In this Article, we encourage courts to consider a Bayes\u27 Law approach to screen out, at an early stage, those claims of injury lacking reliable evidence that an injury was more likely than not caused by exposures to toxic agents. The goal of our Article is to provide a framework that helps the gatekeeper to screen out toxic tort claims insufficiently substantiated by the underlying scientific and medical data, and allow the factfinder to decide only those toxic tort claims for which there is reliable and relevant scientific support for each link of the causal chain, from subject exposure to the injury Scientific substantiation of each causal link determines the reliability of an experts opinion that the exposure more likely than not caused the plaintiffs injury

Design Methods Movement, 1944-1967

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 259-282).In the mythic construct of the West, nature, for a considerable era, has served as a seminal broker in basal underpinning discourse. This is despite nature's commutative, convertible and contradictory disclosures. As the antithesis of socio-culture, nature has been the arena of the given, of necessity and compulsion, and a zone of constraint. As "Nature" it has worked as the precipitate of humanity and ministered as the model for human activity. To violate the norms of nature, to be unnatural, has been considered unhealthy, amoral and illegal.Following the Second World War, constructs of nature, socio-culture and norms were altered in design education and practice. Postwar, an emerging discourse of computer-related technologies contributed to reconfiguring representations of architecture, engineering, product and urban planning in the US and UK. The collective driving these changes became known as the Design Methods movement. Together with trajectories of thought in psychology and psychiatry, discourses materializing from such fields as cybernetics, operations research, information theory and computers altered design processes and education.This dissertation ranges from examining the politics of funding surrounding an urban planning research center in Cambridge, Massachusetts to elucidating conferences concerning, architecture, engineering, urban planning and product design in the UK. Taking from media theorist Friedrich Kittler that technologically possible manipulations condition what can become a discourse, this dissertation is structured around two threads.(cont.) One thread concerns how computer-related technologies configured a re-conceptualization of nature and socio-culture in design practice and education. A second thread examines how psychology and psychoanalytic concerns were reworked for design through a lens of computer related technologies. A line between the natural and the normative is questioned concerning concepts of abnormality and deviation.by Alise Upitis.Ph.D

Exploring accident causation in the construction industry

The construction industry has a longstanding reputation for offering dangerous work and has above average rates of occupational injuries and fatalities. Although fatalities have more than halved in the last 20 years, there continues to be more than one construction worker death on average per week. Earlier construction research has generated a wealth of data portraying a clear profile of accident types, but has failed to reveal what happened - the causal factors. In response to this lack of information the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) sponsored this research, the main component of which has been to undertake detailed examination of construction industry accidents. Lacking any precedent of earlier or related work, an important precursor to data collection was a review of the resources that might inform development of the methodology. The path of progress in accident research was explored through evaluation of accident causation models. The need to identify active and latent factors using a systems approach was identified. Desirable features of the systems approach were isolated and, against these criteria, construction accident models were evaluated. Construction accident models were found to be too technically orientated and focused upon human failings to fulfil the criteria for the systems approach. Nevertheless some gave good representation of failure potential through the project lifecycle, and these features were isolated for later inclusion during development of the data collection methods. To complement the theoretical development, perceptions of accident causation were gathered from groups of construction industry practitioners', by the use of focus groups. Appraisal of the accident investigation processes used in industry identified numerous problems with reporting and interpretation, and it was concluded that they are not efficient ways to explore latent conditions. Recommendations for improvements include the development of `performance assessments'; a supplementary system (to synchronise with the risk assessment process) for assessment of factors that affect performance and which are contributory in accident causations, the latent conditions. Benchmarking with industries that have moved away from the traditional organisational and safety management approaches is also advised. It will be an additional challenge to devise changes that are compatible with the unique construction management and contracting methods - any interventions will need careful management, leadership, participatory processes and cross-disciplinary development.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Human-Computer Interaction

In this book the reader will find a collection of 31 papers presenting different facets of Human Computer Interaction, the result of research projects and experiments as well as new approaches to design user interfaces. The book is organized according to the following main topics in a sequential order: new interaction paradigms, multimodality, usability studies on several interaction mechanisms, human factors, universal design and development methodologies and tools

An investigation of contemporary public building design with particular reference to disabled peoples' design needs and designer awareness.

The hypothesis presented in this study is to test the theory that designers do not give adequate consideration to the needs of people with disabilities and that they perceive of people with disabilities as a separate minority who require 'special' provision. Within this context it is suggested that building designers would be more able to serve the needs of people with disabilities if building design education incorporated a more holistic and user-responsive syllabus. The research project, designed to test the above proposition, falls into two principal Sections. Section 1, developed as an inter-disciplinary study, drew documentary and research evidence from a wide variety of fields. The evidence, culled from fields that are largely considered disparate and unconnected, was then examined in the light of the relationships which became apparent from the adoption of a broad, sociological and epistemological approach. The etiology of building design as it relates to the needs of people with disabilities, once developed, informed the methodology of the second, empirical Section, Section 2, which was three-tiered. The first stage of Section 2, comprising a base-line survey, was conceived with a view to gauging not only the degree of congruence between designers' perceptions of need and actual need as expressed by disabled building users, but current demands in terms of patterns of building use, accessibility and expectations, and likely trends in the future. The survey was designed to operate within a holistic framework that, by means of stages two and three of Section 2, examined the access awareness of architecture schools, and the effectiveness of a series of incremental educational techniques formulated to familiarise design students with the design requirements of a heterogeneous public. Functioning as a bridge and conduit between the user and building designer, the broader contextual approach, comprising the sum of the three stages, thereby facilitated the participation of both parties, with the initial building user survey informing the later surveys of designer awareness. The overall findings and recommendations thus arise from the fusion of the epistemological and empirical evidence derived from the two Sections

Use of Human Reliability Analysis to evaluate surgical technique for rectal cancer

Outcomes from surgery are dependent upon technical performance, as demonstrated by the variability that exists in outcomes achieved by different surgeons following surgery for rectal cancer. It is possible to improve such outcomes by focused training and the adoption of specific surgical techniques, such as the total mesorectal excision (TME) training programme in Stockholm which reduced local recurrence rates of cancer by 50%. It is generally accepted that good surgical technique is the enactment of a series of positive surgical actions, and the avoidance of errors. However, the constituents of good surgical technique for rectal cancer have not yet been studied in sufficient detail to identify the specific associations between individual steps and their consequences. In this study the ergonomic principles of human reliability analysis (HRA) were applied to video recordings of rectal cancer surgery. A system of error definition and identification was developed, utilising a bespoke software solution designed for the project. Calculation of optimal camera angles and position was determined in a virtual operating theatre. Analysis of synchronised footage from multiple camera views was performed, through which over 6,000 errors were identified across 14 procedural tasks. The sequences of events contributing to these errors are reported, and a series of error reduction mechanisms formulated for rectal cancer surgery.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceChief Scientist Office (grant number 802181)GBUnited Kingdo

Use of Human Reliability Analysis to evaluate surgical technique for rectal cancer

Outcomes from surgery are dependent upon technical performance, as demonstrated by the variability that exists in outcomes achieved by different surgeons following surgery for rectal cancer. It is possible to improve such outcomes by focused training and the adoption of specific surgical techniques, such as the total mesorectal excision (TME) training programme in Stockholm which reduced local recurrence rates of cancer by 50%. It is generally accepted that good surgical technique is the enactment of a series of positive surgical actions, and the avoidance of errors. However, the constituents of good surgical technique for rectal cancer have not yet been studied in sufficient detail to identify the specific associations between individual steps and their consequences. In this study the ergonomic principles of human reliability analysis (HRA) were applied to video recordings of rectal cancer surgery. A system of error definition and identification was developed, utilising a bespoke software solution designed for the project. Calculation of optimal camera angles and position was determined in a virtual operating theatre. Analysis of synchronised footage from multiple camera views was performed, through which over 6,000 errors were identified across 14 procedural tasks. The sequences of events contributing to these errors are reported, and a series of error reduction mechanisms formulated for rectal cancer surgery.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceChief Scientist Office (grant number 802181)GBUnited Kingdo

Environmental Health

Environmental health practitioners worldwide are frequently presented with issues that require further investigating and acting upon so that exposed populations can be protected from ill-health consequences. These environmental factors can be broadly classified according to their relation to air, water or food contamination. However, there are also work-related, occupational health exposures that need to be considered as a subset of this dynamic academic field. This book presents a review of the current practice and emerging research in the three broadly defined domains, but also provides reference for new emerging technologies, health effects associated with particular exposures and environmental justice issues. The contributing authors themselves display a range of backgrounds and they present a developing as well as a developed world perspective. This book will assist environmental health professionals to develop best practice protocols for monitoring a range of environmental exposure scenarios