The role of cognitive biases in reactions to bushfires

International audienceHuman behaviour is influenced by many psychological factors such as emotions, whose role is already widely recog-nised. Another important factor, and all the more so during disasters where time pressure and stress constrain reasoning, are cognitive biases. In this paper, we present a short overview of the literature on cognitive biases and show how some of these biases are relevant in a particular disaster, the 2009 bushfires in the SouthEast of Australia. We provide a preliminary formalisation of these cognitive biases in BDI (beliefs, desires, intentions) agents, with the goal of integrating such agents into agent-based models to get more realistic behaviour. We argue that taking such "irrational" behaviours into account in simulation is crucial in order to produce valid results that can be used by emergency managers to better understand the behaviour of the population in future bushfires

Child Protection Employees observations of Foster Children s experiences of loss following Bushfires

This item is only available electronically.Due to the common occurrence of bushfires in Australia, research has previously been conducted on this natural disaster and its long term consequences on individuals, families and communities. Children are particularly vulnerable and can experi ence side effects such as depression, anxiety and self destructive behaviours. Despite there being a large existing body of research on the consequences of this natural disaster, research has not been conducted on foster children and their experiences of l oss following bushfires. Foster children are not exempt from the adverse side effects of bushfires and may be at an added risk for psychological distress due to their previous experiences of trauma. This growing and vulnerable population should be represented in the literature. The present study aimed to explore the views of Child Protection employees on foster children s experiences of loss following bushfires. An interview guide was developed and the observations of seven Child Protection employees were obtained. Participants were questioned about foster children s behaviour and mental health during the evacuation and re covery periods of the 2019 Adelaide Hills and Kangaroo Island Bushfires. A thematic analysis was used to generate six themes from the data, which were organisation concern for loved ones and irreplaceable possessions sense of adventure re living the bushfire event anxiety and resilience'. The results suggest that whilst foster children did exhibit concern and some symptom s of anxiety, overall they demonstrated resilience and benefited from their carers organisation. The findings may have implications on the procedures undertaken by Child Protection agencies following bushfires.Thesis (B.PsychSc(Hons)) -- University of Adelaide, School of Psychology, 202

Citizens’ behaviours related to smoke in bushfires and their implications for computational models of evacuation

The behaviours of citizens during bushfires may determine whether they live or die. Using 100 citizen witness statements from the 2009 Australian bushfires, we show how people react to bushfire smoke. Eighty-nine witnesses expressly mention smoke, not necessarily in combination with fire. This prompted behaviours including: seeking further information, monitoring the situation, effecting a fire plan (including evacuation), alerting people to danger and fire risk, and going home. Computational simulators have been used to assess civilians’ risk and to help with evacuation efforts. Despite works that accurately model fire spread and people’s behaviours in response to perceiving fire, the issue of how people react to seeing smoke from a bushfire is rarely considered. We discuss how the identified behaviours may be incorporated into an agent-based simulator of bushfire

Gender-specific symptomatology in depression: implications for assessment and treatment

A growing body of research suggests that depressed men are more likely to express alternative symptoms that are currently not included in standard diagnostic depression criteria. Findings on this topic, however, have been inconclusive and it remains unclear which symptoms accurately identify depression in men. Without a sufficient and thorough understanding of gender-specific symptomatology in depression, depressed men might not receive appropriate treatment and support. Consequently, the overall aim of this thesis is to clarify whether men and women express different symptoms associated with depression and potential implications for assessment and treatment. This aim is addressed by critically reviewing existing evidence in the research literature of gender differences in depression and conducting empirical research in different community populations and contexts. Results are presented in a sequence of four PhD studies that were developed to systematically investigate and test whether gender-specific symptomatology exists. To the author’s knowledge this was the first time that a systematic research program on the genderspecific symptomatology was developed and conducted

“Of Gods and Men” : selected print media coverage of natural disasters and industrial failures in three Westminster countries

This article examines selected print media coverage of a domestic natural disaster and domestic industrial failure in each of three Westminster countries: Australia, Canada, and the UK. It studies this coverage from several perspectives: the volume of coverage; the rate at which the articles were published; the tone of the headlines; and a content analysis of the perceived performance of key public and private institutions during and following the events. Its initial findings reveal that the natural disasters received more coverage than the industrial failures in each of the newspapers considered. There was also no significant difference in the publication rate across event type or newspaper. In each case, government was assessed at least as frequently and negatively as non-government actors, particularly during and following industrial failures. The manner in which government and non-government actors were assessed following these events suggests that, contrary to government claims that owners and operators of critical infrastructure (CI) are responsible for its successful operation, government in fact is “in the frame” as frequently as the industry owners and operators are. In addition, the negative assessments of governments following industrial failures in particular may prompt over-reaction by policy makers to industrial failures and under-reaction to natural disasters. This inconsistency is indeed ironic because the latter occur more often and cost more, both financially and socially. We reviewed 340 newspaper articles from three different newspapers: The Australian’s coverage of the Canberra bushfires and the Waterfall train accident, The Globe and Mail’s (Canada) coverage of Hurricane Juan and the de la Concorde overpass collapse, and The Daily Telegraph’s (UK) coverage of the 2007 floods and the Potters Bar train wreck. Our sample size is small; our ability to compare across newspapers and countries limited. Further research is warranted

An Issue of Scale: The Challenge of Time, Space and Multitude in Sustainability and Geography Education

Article is also published in: Geography Education Promoting Sustainability. ISBN 978-3-03928-500-6 (Pbk); ISBN 978-3-03928-501-3 (PDF) DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/books978-3-03928-501-3 https://www.mdpi.com/books/pdfview/book/2184The field of geography is important for any sustainability education. The aim of geography education is to enable students to understand the environment, its influence on human activity, and how humans influence the environment. In this article we present a study on how the interplay between the three pillars of sustainability thinking (environment, society and economy) play out on smaller and larger scales of time, space and multitude in geography education. In this paper, we argue that central issues in high quality sustainability education in geography relates to students’ deeper grasp of how to shift between magnitudes of time, space and multitude patterns. We show how an appreciation of many core issues in sustainability education require students to understand and traverse different magnitudes of the scalable concepts of time, space and multitude. Furthermore, we argue and exemplify how common sustainability misconceptions arise due to an inability to make the cognitive shift between relevant magnitudes on these scalable concepts. Finally, we briefly discuss useful educational approaches to mediating this problem, including the use of digital tools in order to allow geography teachers to facilitate the students’ better understanding of different magnitudes of slow, fast, small and large scale entities and processes.Peer reviewe

Essays on Understanding Consumer Decision Making: Mortgage Choice and Consumption and Investment Behaviour

Consumer decision making impacts short-term and long-term financial welfare. We study two important aspects of consumer financial behaviour by using both revealed and stated preference data. The first is mortgage decision making which is inherently complex. The second is consumption and investment behaviour in response to a large shock in the form of a natural disaster. Many people find mortgage choice decisions daunting and confusing because mortgage products have many attributes that can be hard to understand and difficult to compare. We provide an overview of the conditions in the Australian mortgage market and present preliminary evidence on complexity and sources of consumer confusion in mortgage choice. We then conduct focus groups followed by a two-part choice experiment. We collect stated preference data via a best-worst task and a discrete choice experiment based on our preliminary focus group study. We find that Australian consumers express highly variable relative confusion about common mortgage attributes and that they tend to place less importance on attributes that they find most confusing. Borrowers generally prefer mortgages from major banks, shorter loan terms, variable and fixed interest rates over hybrid rates, lower establishment fees, principal and interest repayment schedules over interest-only repayments, and the flexibility of early repayments, and these preferences transmit into willingness-to-pay for preferred attributes. However, compared with non-advised consumers, mortgage-broker-advised consumers express preferences that align with broker incentives to tilt consumers to high-volume and longer-term home loans. We next use individual revealed preference data from a FinTech app (Raiz) to investigate the effects of increasingly common major Australian natural disasters on consumer spending, saving and investment. We measure responses to disasters in 2017-19 in terms of immediate and subsequent spending and in terms of usage of automated saving and investment features. Our findings are consistent with life-cycle theory that an increase in anticipated risks encourages many consumers to increase precautionary savings as a buffer stock against future disasters and that consumers tend to return to normal spending patterns after a transitory shock

Future-proofing the state: managing risks, responding to crises and building resilience

Summary: This book focuses on the challenges facing governments and communities in preparing for and responding to major crises — especially the hard to predict yet unavoidable natural disasters ranging from earthquakes and tsunamis to floods and bushfires, as well as pandemics and global economic crises. Future-proofing the state and our societies involves decision-makers developing capacities to learn from recent ‘disaster’ experiences in order to be better placed to anticipate and prepare for foreseeable challenges. To undertake such futureproofing means taking long-term (and often recurring) problems seriously, managing risks appropriately, investing in preparedness, prevention and mitigation, reducing future vulnerability, building resilience in communities and institutions, and cultivating astute leadership. In the past we have often heard calls for ‘better future-proofing’ in the aftermath of disasters, but then neglected the imperatives of the message. Future-Proofing the State is organised around four key themes: how can we better predict and manage the future; how can we transform the short-term thinking shaped by our political cycles into more effective long-term planning; how can we build learning into our preparations for future policies and management; and how can we successfully build trust and community resilience to meet future challenges more adequately

Adapting the community sector for climate extremes

Abstract People experiencing poverty and inequality will be affected first and worst by the impacts of climate change to infrastructure and human settlements, including those caused by increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events and natural disasters. They have the least capacity to cope, to adapt, to move and to recover. Community service organisations (CSOs) play a critical role in supporting individuals, families and communities experiencing poverty and inequality to build resilience and respond to adverse changes in circumstances. As such, the services they provide comprise a critical component of social infrastructure in human settlements. However, very little is understood about CSOs own vulnerability to – or their role in managing and mitigating risks to their clients and the community from – climate change impacts to physical infrastructure. The Extreme Weather, Climate Change and the Community Sector – Risks and Adaptations project examined the relationship between physical and social infrastructure (in the form of CSO service provision). Specifically, the ways in which the climate-driven failure of CSO service delivery worsens risks to the individuals and communities they serve and, on the other hand, how preparedness may reduce vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather impacts to human settlements and infrastructure.The research comprised a comprehensive and critical scoping, examination and review of existing research findings and an audit, examination and judgment-based evaluation of the current vulnerabilities and capacities of CSOs under projected climate change scenarios. It employed three key methods of consultation and data collection. A literature review examined research conducted to date in Australia and comparative countries internationally on the vulnerability and climate change adaptation needs of CSOs. A program of 10 Community Sector Professional Climate Workshops consulted over 150 CSO representatives to develop a qualitative record of extreme event and climate change risks and corresponding adaptation strategies specific to CSOs. A national survey of CSOs, which resulted in the participation of approximately 500 organisations, produced a quantitative data set about the nature of CSO vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather impacts to infrastructure, whether and how CSOs are approaching the adaptation task and key barriers to adaptation.While the methods employed and the absence of empirical data sets quantifying CSO vulnerability to climate change impacts create limitations to the evidence-base produced, findings from the research suggest that CSOs are highly vulnerable and not well prepared to respond to climate change and extreme weather impacts to physical infrastructure and that this underlying organisational vulnerability worsens the vulnerability of people experiencing poverty and inequality to climate change. However, the project results indicate that if well adapted, CSOs have the willingness, specialist skills, assets and capacity to make a major contribution to the resilience and adaptive capacity of their clients and the community more broadly (sections of which will be plunged into adversity by extreme events). Despite this willingness, the evidence presented shows that few CSOs have undertaken significant action to prepare for climate change and worsening extreme weather events. Key barriers to adaptation identified through the research are inadequate financial resources, lack of institutionalised knowledge and skills for adaptation and the belief that climate change adaptation is beyond the scope of CSOs core business. On the other hand, key indicators of organisational resilience to climate change and extreme weather impacts include: level of knowledge about extreme weather risks, past experience of an extreme weather event and organisational size.Given its size, scope and the critical role the Australian community sector plays in building client and community resilience and in assisting communities to respond to and recover from the devastating impacts of extreme weather events and natural disasters, the research identifies serious gaps in both the policy frameworks and the research base required to ensure the sector’s resilience and adaptive capacity – gaps which appear to have already had serious consequences. To address these gaps, a series of recommendations has been prepared to enable the development and implementation of a comprehensive, sector-specific adaptation and preparedness program, which includes mechanisms to institutionalise knowledge and skills, streamlined tools appropriate to the needs and capacity of a diverse range of organisations and a benchmarking system to allow progress towards resilience and preparedness to be monitored. Future research priorities for adaptation in this sector have also been identified

Network Effects on Learning during Disasters: The Case of Australian Bushfires

Understanding factors that enhance or diminish learning levels of individuals and teams is significant for achieving both individual (low level) and organisational (high level) goals. In this study, the effect of social network factors at all levels of analysis (actor level, dyadic level and network level) on learning attitudes of emergency personnel in emergency events is investigated. Based on social network concepts of structural holes and strength of weak ties, and the social influence model of learning, a conceptual model is developed. To test and validate the model, data was collected from the transcripts of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission reports in conjunction with the 2008 Australian Inter-Service Incident Management System (AIIMS) survey. Secondly, network measures were applied for exploring the association with learning from a sample of people working within Incident Management Teams, combat roles and coordination centres across Australia and New Zealand. Empirical results suggest that social network factors at all levels of analysis (actor, dyadic and network levels) of emergency personnel play a crucial role in individual and team learning. The contextual implication from the quantitative and qualitative findings of this research is that when approaches for improving the emergency response at an interpersonal level are contemplated, the importance of social structure, position and relations in the networks of emergency personnel needs to be considered carefully as part of the overall individual and organisation-level goals. With this model of learning-related work activity, based on network connectedness, emergency staff members can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable. The findings of this study may be appreciated by emergency managers or administrators for developing an emergency practice culture to optimise individual and team learning and adaptability within an emergency management context