Construction of Equilibria in Strategic Stackelberg Games in Multi-Period Supply Chain Contracts

Almost every supplier faces uncertain and time-varying demand. E-commerce and online shopping have given suppliers unprecedented access to data on customers’ behavior, which sheds light on demand uncertainty. The main purpose of this research project is to provide an analytic tool for decentralized supply channel members to devise optimal long-term (multi-period) supply, pricing, and timing strategies while catering to stochastic demand in a diverse set of market scenarios. Despite its ubiquity in potential applications, the time-dependent channel optimization problem in its general form has received limited attention in the literature due to its complexity and the highly nested structure of its ensuing equilibrium problems. However, there are many scenarios where a single-period channel optimization solution may turn out to be myopic as it does not consider the after-effects of current pricing on future demand. To remedy this typical shortcoming, using general memory functions, we include the strategic customers’ cognitive bias toward pricing history in the supply channel equilibrium problem. In the form of two constructive theorems, we provide explicit solution algorithms for the ensuing Nash–Stackelberg equilibrium problems. In particular, we prove that our recursive solution algorithm can find equilibria in the multi-periodic variation of many standard supply channel contracts such as wholesale, buyback, and revenue-sharing contracts.publishedVersio

(WP 2017-01) The Continuing Relevance of Keynes\u27s Philosophical Thinking: Reflexivity, Complexity, and Uncertainty

This paper explains the continuing relevance of Keynes’s philosophical thinking in terms of his anticipation of complexity thinking in economics. It argues that that reflexivity is a central feature of the philosophical foundations of complexity theory, and shows that Keynes employed an understanding of reflexivity in both his philosophical and economic thinking. This argument is first developed in terms of his moral science conception of economics and General Theory beauty contest analysis. The paper advances a causal model that distinguishes direct causal relationships and reflexive feedback channels, uses this to distinguish Say’s Law economics and Keynes’s economics, and explains the economy as non-ergodic in these terms. Keynes’s policy activism is explained as a complexity view of economic policy that works like self-fulfilling and self-defeating prophecies. The paper closes with a discussion of the ontological foundations of uncertainty in Keynes’s thinking, and comments briefly on what a complexity-reflexivity framework implies regarding his thinking about time

Channel strategy: Formulation and adaptation

Inspired by open systems theories like the structural contingency theory (Lawrence and Lorsch 1967), population ecology theory (Hannan and Freeman 1977), and resource dependence theory (Pfeffer and Salancik 1978), several marketing scholars have investigated how channels adapt and organize themselves to cope with their environments. Curiously, however, the implication of such adaptive behaviour (i.e., the better adapted firms are more profitable) has not been investigated in the marketing literature. This paper aims to probe that question. Moreover, unlike previous marketing studies, we articulate the manufacturer's rather than the distributor's point-of-view, because channel strategy decisions are usually in the manufacturer's domain. We scrutinize firms' adaptive responses from a channel structure and channel task perspective. Results show that the better adapted firms deliver superior performance, and that the adaptive responses often occur subtly at the specific channel task level even when the channel structure itself may appear seemingly unaltered.structural contingency theory; population ecology theory; resource dependence theory;

The boomerang returns? Accounting for the impact of uncertainties on the dynamics of remanufacturing systems

Recent years have witnessed companies abandon traditional open-loop supply chain structures in favour of closed-loop variants, in a bid to mitigate environmental impacts and exploit economic opportunities. Central to the closed-loop paradigm is remanufacturing: the restoration of used products to useful life. While this operational model has huge potential to extend product life-cycles, the collection and recovery processes diminish the effectiveness of existing control mechanisms for open-loop systems. We systematically review the literature in the field of closed-loop supply chain dynamics, which explores the time-varying interactions of material and information flows in the different elements of remanufacturing supply chains. We supplement this with further reviews of what we call the three ‘pillars’ of such systems, i.e. forecasting, collection, and inventory and production control. This provides us with an interdisciplinary lens to investigate how a ‘boomerang’ effect (i.e. sale, consumption, and return processes) impacts on the behaviour of the closed-loop system and to understand how it can be controlled. To facilitate this, we contrast closed-loop supply chain dynamics research to the well-developed research in each pillar; explore how different disciplines have accommodated the supply, process, demand, and control uncertainties; and provide insights for future research on the dynamics of remanufacturing systems

Design of robust service operations using cybernetic principles and simulation

Information flows in a service organisation allow business units to co-ordinate their response to changes in the operating environment. Processes and interactions can be designed so that the right information flows to the right people, at the right time to make effective decisions regarding job priorities and allocation of limited resource. This paper develops an analysis framework and simulation approach to identify the internal information flows an organisation needs to “tune itself” for changing conditions, thus making itself more robust to uncertainties. The ideas are developed and illustrated through a case study with a major telecoms company.International Design Conference - DESIGN 201

Channel strategy adaptation

Using transaction cost theory, considerable research in marketing has focused on the conditions under which firms would use direct or vertically integrated versus indirect or arms length channels of distribution. Data from the field, however, indicate that channel configurations are more varied and complex, with multiple channels and composite channels being just as common as direct and indirect channels. In an attempt to explain this variety, this paper revisits the influence on channel structure of another contending variable, namely environmental complexity. We explore the role and influence of its two components, namely volatility (stability) and heterogeneity (homogeneity). Our study of 139 firms in the healthcare industry reveals that firms facing highly volatile and customer concentrated environments tend to use direct channels, and firms facing highly stable and heterogeneous environments tend to use distribution channels. Intermediate forms such as composite channels and multiple channels were favored by firms facing combinations of the environment where the intensity of one component was high and the other low. In general, firms seem to first choose a business strategy to address their external environment, and then choose a channel strategy to support that business strategy. Firms did not always adapt by making structural changes. Under certain conditions, they simply reallocated channel functions within the same structure, thus virtually deriving all the benefits of a new structure without having to create one.marketing; channels of distribution;

Changing Agricultural Marketing Channel Structures: Interdependences & Risk Preferences

We propose a conceptual model that integrates transaction cost and risk behavior theories in an interdependence framework. Hypotheses are offered that relate the concepts that are central to the proposed model to the three dimensions of channel structures: the allocations of uncertainty, decision rights, and gains. An empirical research design is proposed to test the validity of the conceptual model within the context of the broiler and grain industries. The conceptual model will be validated in a structural equation modeling framework.Marketing,

Caution or activism? Monetary policy strategies in an open economy

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks