Mining Linguistic Associations for Emergent Flood Prediction Adjustment

Floods belong to the most hazardous natural disasters and their disaster management heavily relies on precise forecasts. These forecasts are provided by physical models based on differential equations. However, these models do depend on unreliable inputs such as measurements or parameter estimations which causes undesirable inaccuracies. Thus, an appropriate data-mining analysis of the physical model and its precision based on features that determine distinct situations seems to be helpful in adjusting the physical model. An application of fuzzy GUHA method in flood peak prediction is presented. Measured water flow rate data from a system for flood predictions were used in order to mine fuzzy association rules expressed in natural language. The provided data was firstly extended by a generation of artificial variables (features). The resulting variables were later on translated into fuzzy GUHA tables with help of Evaluative Linguistic Expressions in order to mine associations. The found associations were interpreted as fuzzy IF-THEN rules and used jointly with the Perception-based Logical Deduction inference method to predict expected time shift of flow rate peaks forecasted by the given physical model. Results obtained from this adjusted model were statistically evaluated and the improvement in the forecasting accuracy was confirmed

Rethinking the risk matrix

So far risk has been mostly defined as the expected value of a loss, mathematically PL (being P the probability of an adverse event and L the loss incurred as a consequence of the adverse event). The so called risk matrix follows from such definition. This definition of risk is justified in a long term “managerial” perspective, in which it is conceivable to distribute the effects of an adverse event on a large number of subjects or a large number of recurrences. In other words, this definition is mostly justified on frequentist terms. Moreover, according to this definition, in two extreme situations (high-probability/low-consequence and low-probability/high-consequence), the estimated risk is low. This logic is against the principles of sustainability and continuous improvement, which should impose instead both a continuous search for lower probabilities of adverse events (higher and higher reliability) and a continuous search for lower impact of adverse events (in accordance with the fail-safe principle). In this work a different definition of risk is proposed, which stems from the idea of safeguard: (1Risk)=(1P)(1L). According to this definition, the risk levels can be considered low only when both the probability of the adverse event and the loss are small. Such perspective, in which the calculation of safeguard is privileged to the calculation of risk, would possibly avoid exposing the Society to catastrophic consequences, sometimes due to wrong or oversimplified use of probabilistic models. Therefore, it can be seen as the citizen’s perspective to the definition of risk

European Union Timber Regulation Impact on International Timber Markets

The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and economic consequences. The EU’s response to this problem came with the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. In March 2013, an additional step was taken by implementing the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR). The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of sustainable forest management will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In the first year of the EUTR there are positive impacts, of which the most important is awareness of the disastrous situation with illegal logging, driven by exports of illegal timber. Another positive development is tropical timber exporters documenting the legality of their wood exports. Yet another positive feature is establishment of due diligence systems by EU importers. However, there are considerable problems for ensuring legal trade; for example the lack of comprehensive documentation of origin and legality. Analysis of recent trends establishes changes in the European timber trade in terms of sourcing, substitution, diversion to less-demanding countries. Short-term forecasts of market trends and changes will enable further policy assessment to achieve the objectives of improved legality in international timber markets.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

15th Annual Legal Issues for Financial Institutions Conference

Program and materials from the 15th Annual Legal Issues for Financial Institutions Conference held by UK/CLE on March 10-11, 1995