The Variety of Variables in Automated Real-Time Refinement

The refinement calculus is a well-established theory for deriving program code from specifications. Recent research has extended the theory to handle timing requirements, as well as functional ones, and we have developed an interactive programming tool based on these extensions. Through a number of case studies completed using the tool, this paper explains how the tool helps the programmer by supporting the many forms of variables needed in the theory. These include simple state variables as in the untimed calculus, trace variables that model the evolution of properties over time, auxiliary variables that exist only to support formal reasoning, subroutine parameters, and variables shared between parallel processes

On Repairing Reasoning Reversals via Representational Refinements

Representation is a fluent. A mismatch between the real world and an agent’s representation of it can be signalled by unexpected failures (or successes) of the agent’s reasoning. The ‘real world ’ may include the ontologies of other agents. Such mismatches can be repaired by refining or abstracting an agent’s ontology. These refinements or abstractions may not be limited to changes of belief, but may also change the signature of the agent’s ontology. We describe the implementation and successful evaluation of these ideas in the ORS system. ORS diagnoses failures in plan execution and then repairs the faulty ontologies. Our automated approach to dynamic ontology repair has been designed specifically to address real issues in multi-agent systems, for instance, as envisaged in the Semantic Web

An Extensible Timing Infrastructure for Adaptive Large-scale Applications

Real-time access to accurate and reliable timing information is necessary to profile scientific applications, and crucial as simulations become increasingly complex, adaptive, and large-scale. The Cactus Framework provides flexible and extensible capabilities for timing information through a well designed infrastructure and timing API. Applications built with Cactus automatically gain access to built-in timers, such as gettimeofday and getrusage, system-specific hardware clocks, and high-level interfaces such as PAPI. We describe the Cactus timer interface, its motivation, and its implementation. We then demonstrate how this timing information can be used by an example scientific application to profile itself, and to dynamically adapt itself to a changing environment at run time

Bayesian Synthesis: Combining subjective analyses, with an application to ozone data

Bayesian model averaging enables one to combine the disparate predictions of a number of models in a coherent fashion, leading to superior predictive performance. The improvement in performance arises from averaging models that make different predictions. In this work, we tap into perhaps the biggest driver of different predictions---different analysts---in order to gain the full benefits of model averaging. In a standard implementation of our method, several data analysts work independently on portions of a data set, eliciting separate models which are eventually updated and combined through a specific weighting method. We call this modeling procedure Bayesian Synthesis. The methodology helps to alleviate concerns about the sizable gap between the foundational underpinnings of the Bayesian paradigm and the practice of Bayesian statistics. In experimental work we show that human modeling has predictive performance superior to that of many automatic modeling techniques, including AIC, BIC, Smoothing Splines, CART, Bagged CART, Bayes CART, BMA and LARS, and only slightly inferior to that of BART. We also show that Bayesian Synthesis further improves predictive performance. Additionally, we examine the predictive performance of a simple average across analysts, which we dub Convex Synthesis, and find that it also produces an improvement.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS444 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org