Development of a Short-Term Forecast System for Solar Surface Irradiance Based on Satellite Imagery and NWP Data

The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has lead to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on its load flows and associated with this economic effects. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time periods (0-4 h) has grown. In this study, a novel approach for forecasting solar surface irradiance is developed which is based on the optical flow of the effective cloud albedo and SPECMAGIC NOW. This short-term forecast is combined seamlessly with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) to expand the forecast horizon up to 12 h. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L1 from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced by extrapolating the optical flow into the future, the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW, which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements, the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h with a resolution of 0.05°. The combination of the displacement of clouds by TV-L1 and the calculation of solar surface irradiance by SPECMAGIC NOW is innovative and promising. Finally, a procedure for a seamless blending between a NWP model and the presented nowcasting is developed. For this purpose the software tool ANAKLIM++ is utilized which was originally designed for the efficient assimilation of two-dimensional data sets using variational approach. ANAKLIM++ blends the nowcasting, ICON and IFS between 1-5 h in such a way that the combined forecast delivers a smaller forecast error than the individual forecasts for each lead time

A solar irradiance estimation technique via curve fitting based on dual-mode Jaya optimization

Solar irradiance is a crucial environmental parameter for optimal control of photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, precise measurements of the solar irradiance are difficult since the irradiation sensors (i.e., pyranometer or pyrheliometer) are expensive and hard to calibrate. This paper proposes a cost-effective and accurate method for estimating the solar irradiance with a PV module via curve fitting. A dual-mode Jaya (DM-Jaya) optimization algorithm is introduced to extract the real-time value of solar irradiance from the measured PV characteristics data by using two search strategies. The step sizes of a random walk are taken from even and Lévy distribution distributions in different searching phases. Compared with the traditional irradiance sensors, the proposed estimator does not require additional circuit and obtains relatively lower error rates. A comparative study of seven population-based optimization algorithms for the optimal design of the estimator is presented. These algorithms include particle swarm optimization (PSO), cuckoo search (CS), Jaya, simulated annealing (SA), genetic algorithm (GA), supply-demand-based optimization (SDO), and the proposed DM-Jaya algorithm. Simulations and experimental results reveal that DM-Jaya outperforms the other optimization algorithms in terms of the estimation speed and accuracy

Impact of tropical convective conditions on solar irradiance forecasting based on cloud motion vectors

Intra-day forecasts of global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) are widely produced by displacing existing clouds on a geo-stationary satellite image to their future locations with cloud motion vectors (CMVs) derived from preceding images. The CMV estimation methods assume rigid cloud bodies with advective motion, which performs reasonably well in mid-latitudes but can be strained for tropical and sub-tropical climatic zones during prolonged periods of seasonal convection. We study the impact of the South Asian monsoon time convection on the accuracy of CMV based forecasts by analysing 2 years of forecasts from three commonly used CMV methods—Block-match, Farnebäck (Optical flow) and TV-L1 (Optical flow). Forecasted cloud index (CI) maps of the entire image section are validated against analysis CI maps for the period 2018–2019 for forecast lead times from 0 to 5.5 h. Site-level GHI forecasts are validated against ground measured data from two Baseline Surface Radiation Network stations—Gurgaon (GUR) and Tiruvallur (TIR), located in hot semi-arid and tropical savanna climatic zones respectively. The inter-seasonal variation of forecast accuracy is prominent and a clear link is found between the increase in convection, represented by a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the decrease in forecast accuracy. The GUR site shows the highest forecast error in the southwest monsoon period and exhibits a steep rise of forecast error with the increase in convection. The highest forecast error occurs in the northeast monsoon period of December in TIR. The impact of convection on the number of erroneous time blocks of predicted photovoltaic production is also studied. Our results provide insights into the contribution of convection to errors in CMV based forecasts and shows that OLR can be used as a feature in future forecasting methods to consider the impact of convection on forecast accuracy

The Seamless Solar Radiation (SESORA) Forecast for Solar Surface Irradiance—Method and Validation

Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid, the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless solar radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation is calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW (Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradiance Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05 ∘ . An extensive validation of this short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on either area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of this study equals 59 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 42 W/m 2 ) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 97 W/m 2 ) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun. After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be presented and discussed