Expo 2015: an impact analysis on international trade.

In the last decades an increasing number of countries candidates to host a mega-event. This paper analyze (in the light of Expo Milan will host in 2015) if an exposition impacts in a significant manner on interna-tional trade, justifying countries’ interest in their organization. Based on performed analysis using gravity model, we conclude that a permanent and significant exposition effect exists on host country international trade flows; it involve both an increase of exports and an increase of imports, pointing out a commercial openness of host country; this effect exists also for candidates countries. So, we propose an hypothesis about the nature of exposition impact on international trade: it’s interpretable as a true and proper political and in-stitutional signal with which host country sends a signal to general public of a liberalisation process of its commerce in progress, showing own competences, abilities, means and resources. In the light of results, we point out potentialities and risks of Expo Milan 2015.

On the Origins of the Fleming-Mundell Model

Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fleming-Mundell model? Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Asset Prices and Time-Varying Risk

Observers have often characterized asset markets as being subject to periods of tranquility and periods of turbulence. Until recently, however, researchers were unable to produce closed-form asset pricing formulas in a model environment of time-varying risk. Some work by Abel provided us with the insights needed to produce such formulas. This paper gives an exposition of how to develop the formulas in an, environment where the formulas may be obtained using a simple extension of standard tools. While the paper is intended mainly as an exposition of new work, it also contains a report on the asset market effect of fiscal reform. IC is found that entering a period of week coordination between government spending end taxing (tax rate) policy is good for stock prices.

Land Management of the Areas of High Landscape Values: An Economic Model

This paper presents selected results of the research entitled Planning the Space of High Landscape Values, Using Digital Land Analysis, with Economic Appraisal, supervised by Dr. Paweł Ozimek, Cracow Technical University, conducted since 2009. Usually, we do not pay attention to surrounding landscapes in our everyday life. However, for the persons who deal with spatial planning, geography, natural environment, or cultural heritage, the validity and value of landscape are the terms which do not have to be defined. The first part of the paper is dedicated to the landscape features that decide about its value. The author discusses whether those features are the same as those we want to protect and how we can appraise landscape values. The next part contains an analysis of the economic bases of development. In reference to space, the analysis and opinion on land use in the context of the development of usable functions are essential. Consequently, the identification of the limitations connected with the protection of landscape and delimitation of the areas on which such limitations exist are required. Another component consists in the determination of the land requirements associated with existential and economic needs of the local population. Such a general balance of needs and requirements is the starting point of the adoption of development policies and action programmes. The programmes should include the location of individual projects and capital investments on land, as well as their proper timing co-ordination. Owing to the complexity of the tasks, the option analysis is the preferred method of search for the best possible solution. The reconciliation of individual land use (title to land), public and business land uses, with the protection of environmental and cultural values, can be difficult or next to impossible to attain. Therefore, we need some mechanisms to compensate the losses occurring in individual interests and in local, regional, or national development. The choice of options for local or regional development is based on balancing the costs and benefits that depend on the sizes of both protected and non-protected areas. In conclusion, the author attempts at answering the questions whether the landscape and landscape values can be saved owing to their economic assets, and what instruments should be implemented to utilize economic mechanisms of protection.Artykuł przedstawia wybrane rezultaty pracy Planowanie przestrzeni o wysokich walorach krajobrazowych przy użyciu cyfrowych analiz terenu wraz z ocena ekonomiczną (kierownik dr Paweł Ozimek, Politechnika Krakowska). W codziennym życiu zwykle na krajobraz nie zwracamy uwagi. Ale dla osób zajmujących się planowaniem przestrzennym, geografią, środowiskiem naturalnym i dobrami kultury ważność i wartość krajobrazu jest tezą nie wymagającą dowodu. Pierwszą część artykułu poświęcono zagadnieniu cech krajobrazu, które decydują o jego wartości. Także - czy są to te cechy krajobrazu, które chcemy chronić oraz jak możemy ocenić wartość krajobrazu. Kolejna część to analiza gospodarczych podstaw rozwoju. W odniesieniu do przestrzeni istotnym elementem jest ocena przydatności poszczególnych terenów dla rozwoju funkcji użytkowych. W konsekwencji określenie ograniczeń wynikających z ochrony krajobrazu oraz wskazanie obszarów, na których ograniczenia te występują. Drugim elementem jest określenie potrzeb terenowych związanych z bytowymi i ekonomicznymi potrzebami ludności. Tak opracowany ogólny bilans potrzeb i możliwości służy za punkt wyjścia do określenia polityki rozwoju i programów działania. Programy winny zawierać lokalizację przedsięwzięć i inwestycji w przestrzeni oraz odpowiednią ich koordynację w czasie. Ze względu na złożoność preferowaną metodą poszukiwania możliwie najlepszego rozwiązania jest analiza wariantów. Pogodzenie indywidualnego (prawo własności), społecznego i ekonomicznego użytkowania przestrzeni z ochroną jej walorów środowiskowych i kulturowych może być trudne lub wręcz niemożliwe. Konieczne są więc mechanizmy rekompensujące straty zarówno w sprawach indywidualnych, jak i w kontekście rozwoju lokalnego, regionalnego czy krajowego. Wybór wariantu rozwoju opiera się na bilansowaniu kosztów i korzyści zależnych od wielkości chronionego i niechronionego obszaru. Podsumowaniem artykułu jest próba odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy krajobraz i walory krajobrazu ocaleją dzięki swojej ekonomicznej wartości oraz jakie instrumenty winno się wdrożyć w celu wykorzystania mechanizmów ekonomicznych do jego ochrony

Inflation, Tariffs and Tax Enforcement Costs

This paper derives the dependency of optimal tariff and inflation tax on tax collection and enforcement costs. The analysis is done for a small, open economy. The existence of such costs can justify tariff and inflation tax policies as optimal revenue-raising devices. This paper suggests that greater government demand for revenue will increase the use of inflation and tariffs as revenue devices. The analysis derives elasticity rules that tie optimal tariff and inflation rates to the costs of tax collection.

"A Contribution to the Theory of Financial Fragility and Crisis"

The paper examines three aspects of a financial crisis of domestic origin. The first section studies the evolution of a debt-financed consumption boom supported by rising asset prices, leading to a credit crunch and fluctuations in the real economy, and, ultimately, to debt deflation. The next section extends the analysis to trace gradual evolution toward Ponzi finance and its consequences. The final section explains the link between the financial and the real sector of the economy, pointing to an inherent liquidity problem. The paper concludes with comments on the interactions between the three aspects.Capital Gains; Consumer Debt; Debt-driven Fluctuations; Effective Demand; Financial Fragility; Liquidity Preference