Robustness and Adaptiveness Analysis of Future Fleets

Making decisions about the structure of a future military fleet is a challenging task. Several issues need to be considered such as the existence of multiple competing objectives and the complexity of the operating environment. A particular challenge is posed by the various types of uncertainty that the future might hold. It is uncertain what future events might be encountered; how fleet design decisions will influence and shape the future; and how present and future decision makers will act based on available information, their personal biases regarding the importance of different objectives, and their economic preferences. In order to assist strategic decision-making, an analysis of future fleet options needs to account for conditions in which these different classes of uncertainty are exposed. It is important to understand what assumptions a particular fleet is robust to, what the fleet can readily adapt to, and what conditions present clear risks to the fleet. We call this the analysis of a fleet's strategic positioning. This paper introduces how strategic positioning can be evaluated using computer simulations. Our main aim is to introduce a framework for capturing information that can be useful to a decision maker and for defining the concepts of robustness and adaptiveness in the context of future fleet design. We demonstrate our conceptual framework using simulation studies of an air transportation fleet. We capture uncertainty by employing an explorative scenario-based approach. Each scenario represents a sampling of different future conditions, different model assumptions, and different economic preferences. Proposed changes to a fleet are then analysed based on their influence on the fleet's robustness, adaptiveness, and risk to different scenarios

Robustness and Adaptability Analysis of Future Military Air Transportation Fleets

Making decisions about the structure of a future military fleet is challenging. Several issues need to be considered, including multiple competing objectives and the complexity of the operating environment. A particular challenge is posed by the various types of uncertainty that the future holds. It is uncertain what future events might be encountered and how fleet design decisions will influence these events. In order to assist strategic decision-making, an analysis of future fleet options needs to account for conditions in which these different uncertainties are exposed. It is important to understand what assumptions a particular fleet is robust to, what the fleet can readily adapt to, and what conditions present risks to the fleet. We call this the analysis of a fleet’s strategic positioning. Our main aim is to introduce a framework that captures information useful to a decision maker and defines the concepts of robustness and adaptability in the context of future fleet design. We demonstrate our conceptual framework by simulating an air transportation fleet problem. We account for uncertainty by employing an explorative scenario-based approach. Each scenario represents a sampling of different future conditions and different model assumptions. Proposed changes to a fleet are then analysed based on their influence on the fleet’s robustness, adaptability, and risk to different scenarios

An analysis of pilot error-related aircraft accidents

A multidisciplinary team approach to pilot error-related U.S. air carrier jet aircraft accident investigation records successfully reclaimed hidden human error information not shown in statistical studies. New analytic techniques were developed and applied to the data to discover and identify multiple elements of commonality and shared characteristics within this group of accidents. Three techniques of analysis were used: Critical element analysis, which demonstrated the importance of a subjective qualitative approach to raw accident data and surfaced information heretofore unavailable. Cluster analysis, which was an exploratory research tool that will lead to increased understanding and improved organization of facts, the discovery of new meaning in large data sets, and the generation of explanatory hypotheses. Pattern recognition, by which accidents can be categorized by pattern conformity after critical element identification by cluster analysis

Probabilistic Reachability Analysis for Large Scale Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This paper studies probabilistic reachability analysis for large scale stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) as a problem of rare event estimation. In literature, advanced rare event estimation theory has recently been embedded within a stochastic analysis framework, and this has led to significant novel results in rare event estimation for a diffusion process using sequential MC simulation. This paper presents this rare event estimation theory directly in terms of probabilistic reachability analysis of an SHS, and develops novel theory which allows to extend the novel results for application to a large scale SHS where a very huge number of rare discrete modes may contribute significantly to the reach probability. Essentially, the approach taken is to introduce an aggregation of the discrete modes, and to develop importance sampling relative to the rare switching between the aggregation modes. The practical working of this approach is demonstrated for the safety verification of an advanced air traffic control example

Summary Proceedings of a Wind Shear Workshop

A number of recent program results and current issues were addressed: the data collection phase of the highly successful Joint Airport Weather Study (JAWS) Project and the NASA-B5f7B Gust Gradient Program, the use of these data for flight crew training through educational programs (e.g., films) and with manned flight training simulators, methods for post-accident determination of wind conditions from flight data recorders, the microburst wind shear phenomenon which was positively measured and described the ring vortex as a possible generating mechanism, the optimum flight procedure for use during an unexpected wind shear encounter, evaluation of the low-level wind shear alert system (LLWSAS), and assessment of the demonstrated and viable application of Doppler radar as an operational wind shear warning and detection system

Terrorist Attacks On Public Bus Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, MTI Report WP 09-01

This report provides data on terrorist attacks against public bus transportation targets and serious crimes committed against such targets throughout the world. The data are drawn from the MTI database of attacks on public surface transportation, which is expanded and updated as information becomes available. This analysis is based on the database as of December 17, 2009. Data include the frequency and lethality with which buses, bus stations, and bus stops are attacked; the relationship between fatalities and attacks against bus targets and the relationship between injuries and attacks against those targets; how often, relative to other surface transportation targets, buses are attacked, first with all weapons and then with only explosive and incendiary devices; the relative lethality of attacks; and the distribution of attacks. It then presents some preliminary observations drawn from those data that can help stakeholders governments, transit managers, and employees to focus on the ways the most frequent and/or most lethal attacks are carried out as they consider measures to prevent or mitigate attacks that may be considered likely to happen in the United States

Planning and evaluation parameters for offshore complexes

Issues are presented for consideration in the planning and design of offshore artificial complexes. The construction of such complexes, their social, economic, and ecological impacts, and the legal-political-institutional environments within which their development could occur, are discussed. Planning, design, and construction of near-shore complexes located off the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States is emphasized

Run-time risk management in adaptive ICT systems

We will present results of the SERSCIS project related to risk management and mitigation strategies in adaptive multi-stakeholder ICT systems. The SERSCIS approach involves using semantic threat models to support automated design-time threat identification and mitigation analysis. The focus of this paper is the use of these models at run-time for automated threat detection and diagnosis. This is based on a combination of semantic reasoning and Bayesian inference applied to run-time system monitoring data. The resulting dynamic risk management approach is compared to a conventional ISO 27000 type approach, and validation test results presented from an Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) scenario involving data exchange between multiple airport service providers

Towards a Smart World: Hazard Levels for Monitoring of Autonomous Vehicles’ Swarms

This work explores the creation of quantifiable indices to monitor the safe operations and movement of families of autonomous vehicles (AV) in restricted highway-like environments. Specifically, this work will explore the creation of ad-hoc rules for monitoring lateral and longitudinal movement of multiple AVs based on behavior that mimics swarm and flock movement (or particle swarm motion). This exploratory work is sponsored by the Emerging Leader Seed grant program of the Mineta Transportation Institute and aims at investigating feasibility of adaptation of particle swarm motion to control families of autonomous vehicles. Specifically, it explores how particle swarm approaches can be augmented by setting safety thresholds and fail-safe mechanisms to avoid collisions in off-nominal situations. This concept leverages the integration of the notion of hazard and danger levels (i.e., measures of the “closeness” to a given accident scenario, typically used in robotics) with the concept of safety distance and separation/collision avoidance for ground vehicles. A draft of implementation of four hazard level functions indicates that safety thresholds can be set up to autonomously trigger lateral and longitudinal motion control based on three main rules respectively based on speed, heading, and braking distance to steer the vehicle and maintain separation/avoid collisions in families of autonomous vehicles. The concepts here presented can be used to set up a high-level framework for developing artificial intelligence algorithms that can serve as back-up to standard machine learning approaches for control and steering of autonomous vehicles. Although there are no constraints on the concept’s implementation, it is expected that this work would be most relevant for highly-automated Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles, capable of communicating with each other and in the presence of a monitoring ground control center for the operations of the swarm