Modeling of Structural Adjustment Processes of Farming Enterprises: The Need for Implementation of Cooperation and Collaboration Strategies

The research objective is to shed light on the structural adjustment process of farming enterprises in Switzerland. To this end, an analytical tool is developed which allows us to identify the most important influencing factors and to estimate in advance their effects on the structural adjustment process. The resulting structures will be compared with the relevant goals of the (agricultural) policy in order to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the adjustment process. Using scenario techniques combined with an agent-based simulation, the influencing factors are varied to investigate alternative options like cooperation and collaboration strategies for improving the effectiveness with respect to the social, ecological and economic goals.Agent-based simulation, structural change, cooperation strategies, collaboration, Agricultural Finance, C61, Q12, Q15,

Dialogues Concerning a (Possibly) New Science

The paper relates virtual dialogues about social simulation, with the implicit reference to Galieo\'s \'dialogues concerning two new sciences\'.Social Simulations, Epistemology, Validation, Simulation Methods

An Agent Operationalization Approach for Context Specific Agent-Based Modeling

The potential of agent-based modeling (ABM) has been demonstrated in various research fields. However, three major concerns limit the full exploitation of ABM; (i) agents are too simple and behave unrealistically without any empirical basis, (ii) \'proof of concept\' applications are too theoretical and (iii) too much value placed on operational validity instead of conceptual validity. This paper presents an operationalization approach to determine the key system agents, their interaction, decision-making and behavior for context specific ABM, thus addressing the above-mentioned shortcomings. The approach is embedded in the framework of Giddens\' structuration theory and the structural agent analysis (SAA). The agents\' individual decision-making (i.e. reflected decisions) is operationalized by adapting the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The approach is supported by empirical system knowledge, allowing us to test empirically the presumed decision-making and behavioral assumptions. The output is an array of sample agents with realistic (i.e. empirically quantified) decision-making and behavior. Results from a Swiss mineral construction material case study illustrate the information which can be derived by applying the proposed approach and demonstrate its practicability for context specific agent-based model development.Agent Operationalization, Decision-Making, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Agent-Based Modeling, Conceptual Validation

Psychologically Plausible Models in Agent-Based Simulations of Sustainable Behavior

Agent-based modelling (ABM) proves successful as a methodology for the social sciences. To continue bridging the micro-macro link in social simulations and applying ABM in real-world conditions, conventional and often simplified models of decision-making have to be utilized and extended into psychologically plausible models. We demonstrate the contribution of such models to enhance validation and forecasts in social simulations with two examples concerned with sustainable behavior. We start with the Consumat framework to demonstrate the contribution of an established psychological plausible decision-making model in various scenarios of sustainable behavior. Then we use the SiMA-C model to explain how different psychological factors generate social behavior and show how a detailed model of decision-making supports realistic empirical validation and experimentation. A scenario of social media prompting of environmental-friendly behavior exemplifies the details of how individual decision-making is influenced by the social context. Both examples, Consumat and SiMA-C, emphasize the importance of psychological realism in modelling behavioral dynamics for simulations of sustainable behavior and provide explanations on the psychological level that enable the development of social policies on the individual level

Human Simulation and Sustainability: Ontological, Epistemological, and Ethical Reflections

publishedVersio

Human Simulation and Sustainability : Ontological, Epistemological, and Ethical Reflections

publishedVersio

Eliciting Agents’ Behaviour using Scenario-Based Questionnaire in Agent-Based Dairy Supply Chain Simulation

A scenario-based questionnaire is a survey method that aims to identify the respondents’ decision rules using their responses to a series of scenarios. It is rarely used in agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) with most researchers preferring a survey with closed questions as the data collection method. This is particularly true for ABMS studies in agri-food supply chains. In our paper, we design a scenario-based questionnaire to elicit the behaviour of agents in ABMS and apply it in a dairy supply chain case. Our findings suggest that respondents respond well to a scenario-based questionnaire as it relates more closely to their actual decision-making process. Furthermore, our experiment shows that the decision rules extracted using a scenario-based questionnaire improve ABMS validity