The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.Recessions ; Economic indicators ; Index numbers (Economics) ; Business cycles

When Things Matter: A Data-Centric View of the Internet of Things

With the recent advances in radio-frequency identification (RFID), low-cost wireless sensor devices, and Web technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT) approach has gained momentum in connecting everyday objects to the Internet and facilitating machine-to-human and machine-to-machine communication with the physical world. While IoT offers the capability to connect and integrate both digital and physical entities, enabling a whole new class of applications and services, several significant challenges need to be addressed before these applications and services can be fully realized. A fundamental challenge centers around managing IoT data, typically produced in dynamic and volatile environments, which is not only extremely large in scale and volume, but also noisy, and continuous. This article surveys the main techniques and state-of-the-art research efforts in IoT from data-centric perspectives, including data stream processing, data storage models, complex event processing, and searching in IoT. Open research issues for IoT data management are also discussed

Past, Present, and Future of Simultaneous Localization And Mapping: Towards the Robust-Perception Age

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM)consists in the concurrent construction of a model of the environment (the map), and the estimation of the state of the robot moving within it. The SLAM community has made astonishing progress over the last 30 years, enabling large-scale real-world applications, and witnessing a steady transition of this technology to industry. We survey the current state of SLAM. We start by presenting what is now the de-facto standard formulation for SLAM. We then review related work, covering a broad set of topics including robustness and scalability in long-term mapping, metric and semantic representations for mapping, theoretical performance guarantees, active SLAM and exploration, and other new frontiers. This paper simultaneously serves as a position paper and tutorial to those who are users of SLAM. By looking at the published research with a critical eye, we delineate open challenges and new research issues, that still deserve careful scientific investigation. The paper also contains the authors' take on two questions that often animate discussions during robotics conferences: Do robots need SLAM? and Is SLAM solved

Promotional Campaigns in the Era of Social Platforms

The rise of social media has facilitated the diffusion of information to more easily reach millions of users. While some users connect with friends and organically share information and opinions on social media, others have exploited these platforms to gain influence and profit through promotional campaigns and advertising. The existence of promotional campaigns contributes to the spread of misleading information, spam, and fake news. Thus, these campaigns affect the trustworthiness and reliability of social media and render it as a crowd advertising platform. This dissertation studies the existence of promotional campaigns in social media and explores different ways users and bots (i.e. automated accounts) engage in such campaigns. In this dissertation, we design a suite of detection, ranking, and mining techniques. We study user-generated reviews in online e-commerce sites, such as Google Play, to extract campaigns. We identify cooperating sets of bots and classify their interactions in social networks such as Twitter, and rank the bots based on the degree of their malevolence. Our study shows that modern online social interactions are largely modulated by promotional campaigns such as political campaigns, advertisement campaigns, and incentive-driven campaigns. We measure how these campaigns can potentially impact information consumption of millions of social media users