Ecologically-Based Management of Rodent Pests

Farm Management,

Connecting climate information with health outcomes

In this chapter we consider a range of factors that need to be taken into account when seeking to use climate information to improve health decision-making. Identifying causal mechanisms that link climate drivers with specific health issues is an important starting point for policy-makers. Matching decision time-horizons to climate information in a way that takes account of scale issues, uncertainties in the underlying data and modelling approaches as well as institutional barriers to knowledge and data sharing is also critical. And of course, all of this is dependent on a solid understanding of the climate information (including its limitations) that is available to health decision-makers. A researcher may be satisfied with a simple times-series of climate data from an authoritative source; a decision-maker needs to know that the climate information is robust, available for routine use and scalable (i.e., can be used over the entire region of interest)

Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs—with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places—and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts

The Chittagong story: studies on the ecology of rat floods and bamboo masting

Rodent population outbreaks due to the 50-year cycle of gregarious flowering and seed masting of Melocanna baccifera were first noted in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh during the crop production cycle of 2008. The wave of flowering has steadily moved southward through the region each year, with seed masting still occurring in some areas of the CHT during 2010. Because of a lack of surveillance, it is not yet known whether all Melocanna bamboo forests across the region have now initiated flowering. Ecological surveys carried out during the masting event have provided some preliminary evidence that nearly all rodent species are able to exploit Melocanna bamboo seeds as a food resource, with nearly 30% of the seed fallen in forests damaged by rodents. Breeding potential of the predominant species found, Rattus rattus, appears to confirm that aseasonal breeding occurs due to the abundant supply of bamboo seed during masting events. These preliminary results obtained from ongoing research surveys are discussed in the context of the management response to the regional famine triggered by the severe crop damage caused by rodent population outbreaks

Plague and Climate: Scales Matter

Plague is enzootic in wildlife populations of small mammals in central and eastern Asia, Africa, South and North America, and has been recognized recently as a reemerging threat to humans. Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e., bacteria, vectors, and hosts) of the plague system and is a likely factor to explain some of plague's variability from small and regional to large scales. Here, we review effects of climate variables on plague hosts and vectors from individual or population scales to studies on the whole plague system at a large scale. Upscaled versions of small-scale processes are often invoked to explain plague variability in time and space at larger scales, presumably because similar scale-independent mechanisms underlie these relationships. This linearity assumption is discussed in the light of recent research that suggests some of its limitations

Shortgrass Steppe LTER VI: examining ecosystem persistence and responses to global change, 2010-2014 proposal

Includes bibliographical references.The SGS-LTER research site was established in 1980 by researchers at Colorado State University as part of a network of long-term research sites within the US LTER Network, supported by the National Science Foundation. Scientists within the Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, and Biology Department at CSU, California State Fullerton, USDA Agricultural Research Service, University of Northern Colorado, and the University of Wyoming, among others, have contributed to our understanding of the structure and functions of the shortgrass steppe and other diverse ecosystems across the network while maintaining a common mission and sharing expertise, data and infrastructure.The Shortgrass Steppe Long-term Ecological Research (SGS-LTER) program focuses on how grassland ecosystems function and persist or change in the face of global change. Our conceptual framework asserts that climate, physiography, grazing, fire and landuse, operating over different spatial and temporal scales, are the dominant determinants of the structure, function, and persistence of the SGS. Using the shortgrass steppe (SGS) ecosystem of the North American Great Plains as a model, we seek to (1) identify the ecological attributes of grasslands that historically have resulted in their persistence and (2) understand these attributes in ways that will allow us to identify area of vulnerability and better forecast the future of grasslands in the face of global change. Given its geographic extent and history, the SGS encapsulates many of the features of a system driven by social-ecological interactions and the vulnerabilities of semiarid grasslands to global change. Our overarching question is: How will structure and function of the SGS respond to expected changes in climate, management, and land-use, and what will be the consequences