Applying autonomy to distributed satellite systems: Trends, challenges, and future prospects

While monolithic satellite missions still pose significant advantages in terms of accuracy and operations, novel distributed architectures are promising improved flexibility, responsiveness, and adaptability to structural and functional changes. Large satellite swarms, opportunistic satellite networks or heterogeneous constellations hybridizing small-spacecraft nodes with highperformance satellites are becoming feasible and advantageous alternatives requiring the adoption of new operation paradigms that enhance their autonomy. While autonomy is a notion that is gaining acceptance in monolithic satellite missions, it can also be deemed an integral characteristic in Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS). In this context, this paper focuses on the motivations for system-level autonomy in DSS and justifies its need as an enabler of system qualities. Autonomy is also presented as a necessary feature to bring new distributed Earth observation functions (which require coordination and collaboration mechanisms) and to allow for novel structural functions (e.g., opportunistic coalitions, exchange of resources, or in-orbit data services). Mission Planning and Scheduling (MPS) frameworks are then presented as a key component to implement autonomous operations in satellite missions. An exhaustive knowledge classification explores the design aspects of MPS for DSS, and conceptually groups them into: components and organizational paradigms; problem modeling and representation; optimization techniques and metaheuristics; execution and runtime characteristics and the notions of tasks, resources, and constraints. This paper concludes by proposing future strands of work devoted to study the trade-offs of autonomy in large-scale, highly dynamic and heterogeneous networks through frameworks that consider some of the limitations of small spacecraft technologies.Postprint (author's final draft

TRAVOS: Trust and Reputation in the Context of Inaccurate Information Sources

In many dynamic open systems, agents have to interact with one another to achieve their goals. Here, agents may be self-interested, and when trusted to perform an action for another, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. In addition, due to the size of such systems, agents will often interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. There is therefore a need to develop a model of trust and reputation that will ensure good interactions among software agents in large scale open systems. Against this background, we have developed TRAVOS (Trust and Reputation model for Agent-based Virtual OrganisationS) which models an agent's trust in an interaction partner. Specifically, trust is calculated using probability theory taking account of past interactions between agents, and when there is a lack of personal experience between agents, the model draws upon reputation information gathered from third parties. In this latter case, we pay particular attention to handling the possibility that reputation information may be inaccurate

Interactive Restless Multi-armed Bandit Game and Swarm Intelligence Effect

We obtain the conditions for the emergence of the swarm intelligence effect in an interactive game of restless multi-armed bandit (rMAB). A player competes with multiple agents. Each bandit has a payoff that changes with a probability $p_{c}$ per round. The agents and player choose one of three options: (1) Exploit (a good bandit), (2) Innovate (asocial learning for a good bandit among $n_{I}$ randomly chosen bandits), and (3) Observe (social learning for a good bandit). Each agent has two parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ to specify the decision: (i) $c$, the threshold value for Exploit, and (ii) $p_{obs}$, the probability for Observe in learning. The parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ are uniformly distributed. We determine the optimal strategies for the player using complete knowledge about the rMAB. We show whether or not social or asocial learning is more optimal in the $(p_{c},n_{I})$ space and define the swarm intelligence effect. We conduct a laboratory experiment (67 subjects) and observe the swarm intelligence effect only if $(p_{c},n_{I})$ are chosen so that social learning is far more optimal than asocial learning.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure

Distributed stabilization control of rigid formations with prescribed orientation

Most rigid formation controllers reported in the literature aim to only stabilize a rigid formation shape, while the formation orientation is not controlled. This paper studies the problem of controlling rigid formations with prescribed orientations in both 2-D and 3-D spaces. The proposed controllers involve the commonly-used gradient descent control for shape stabilization, and an additional term to control the directions of certain relative position vectors associated with certain chosen agents. In this control framework, we show the minimal number of agents which should have knowledge of a global coordinate system (2 agents for a 2-D rigid formation and 3 agents for a 3-D rigid formation), while all other agents do not require any global coordinate knowledge or any coordinate frame alignment to implement the proposed control. The exponential convergence to the desired rigid shape and formation orientation is also proved. Typical simulation examples are shown to support the analysis and performance of the proposed formation controllers.Comment: This paper was submitted to Automatica for publication. Compared to the submitted version, this arXiv version contains complete proofs, examples and remarks (some of them are removed in the submitted version due to space limit.

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Multi-Agent Automated Exchanges

We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict future market trends. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix and production planning. We develop methods to learn dominant market conditions, such as over-supply or scarcity, from historical data using Gaussian mixture models to construct price density functions. We discuss how this model can be combined with real-time observable information to identify the current dominant market condition and to forecast market changes over a planning horizon. We forecast market changes via both a Markov correction-prediction process and an exponential smoother. Empirical analysis shows that the exponential smoother yields more accurate predictions for the current and the next day (supporting tactical decisions), while the Markov correction-prediction process is better for longer term predictions (supporting strategic decisions). Our approach offers more flexibility than traditional regression based approaches, since it does not assume a fixed functional relationship between dependent and independent variables. We validate our methods by presenting experimental results in a case study, the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management.dynamic pricing;machine learning;market forecasting;Trading agents

Game Theory Models for the Verification of the Collective Behaviour of Autonomous Cars

The collective of autonomous cars is expected to generate almost optimal traffic. In this position paper we discuss the multi-agent models and the verification results of the collective behaviour of autonomous cars. We argue that non-cooperative autonomous adaptation cannot guarantee optimal behaviour. The conjecture is that intention aware adaptation with a constraint on simultaneous decision making has the potential to avoid unwanted behaviour. The online routing game model is expected to be the basis to formally prove this conjecture.Comment: In Proceedings FVAV 2017, arXiv:1709.0212