Models Needed to Assist in the Development of a National Fiber Supply Strategy for the 21st Century: Report of a Workshop

This discussion paper reports on a Workshop on Wood Fiber Supply Modeling held October 3-4, 1996 in Washington, DC. The purpose of this discussion paper is to provide an overview of some of the modeling work being done related to timber supply modeling and some of the issues related to the more useful application of wood fiber supply and projections models. This paper includes brief presentations of three commonly used long-term timber projections and forecasting models: the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) of the Forest Service; the Cintrafor Global Trade Model (CGTM) of the University of Washington; and the Timber Supply Model (TSM) of Resources for the Future. Also, issues related to the useful of the models are addressed as well as a discussion of some applications of other timber or fiber projection models. The usefulness of the models are addressed from both a technical perspective and also from the perspective of their usefulness to various model users.

The interdependencies between food and biofuel production in European agriculture - an application of EUFASOM

In the continuous quest to reduce anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, the production and use of organically grown fuels in Europe has increased in importance in the recent past. However, the production of so-called biofuels is a direct competitor of agricultural food production for land, labor, water resources etc. with both land use options influencing each other depending on the respective boundary conditions defined by political regulations and economic considerations. In this study we will explore the economic and technical potentials of biofuels in Europe as well as the interdependencies between these two land use options for different economic incentives for biofuels using the European Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM). Key data on biodiesel and ethanol production have been gathered and are used for calibration of the model. The simulations extend until the year 2030, for which results are presented. Results indicate that moderate production targets of biofuels lead to an expansion of mainly the biodiesel production while more ambitious targets call for a focus on bioethanol. This has to do with the different levels of production efficiency depending on the production output. Growth of bioethanol feedstock is spread over entire Europe while the production of biodiesel feedstock occurs mainly in Central Europe.biodiesel, bioethanol, Europe, EUFASOM, modeling

Review of environmental, economic and policy aspects of biofuels

The world is witnessing a sudden growth in production of biofuels, especially those suited for replacing oil like ethanol and biodiesel. This paper synthesizes what the environmental, economic, and policy literature predicts about the possible effects of these types of biofuels. Another motivation is to identify gaps in understanding and recommend areas for future work. The analysis finds three key conclusions. First, the current generation of biofuels, which is derived from food crops, is intensive in land, water, energy, and chemical inputs. Second, the environmental literature is dominated by a discussion of net carbon offset and net energy gain, while indicators relating to impact on human health, soil quality, biodiversity, water depletion, etc., have received much less attention. Third, there is a fast expanding economic and policy literature that analyzes the various effects of biofuels from both micro and macro perspectives, but there are several gaps. A bewildering array of policies - including energy, transportation, agricultural, trade, and environmental policies - is influencing the evolution of biofuels. But the policies and the level of subsidies do not reflect the marginal impact on welfare or the environment. In summary, all biofuels are not created equal. They exhibit considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production. The impact of biofuels will also be heterogeneous, creating winners and losers. The findings of the paper suggest the importance of the role biomass plays in rural areas of developing countries. Furthermore, the use of biomass for producing fuel for cars can affect access to energy and fodder and not just access to food.Energy Production and Transportation,Environmental Economics&Policies,RenewableEnergy,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Energy and Environment

Modellering av virkninger på skogsektoren av økt bruk av skogbasert bioenergi i Europa og syd-østlige USA

The European Union (henceforth, EU) is now well on track to meet the 2020 targets for renewable energy production and consumption, and recently a new 2030 Framework for climate and energy has been proposed. The forest sector is supposed to make a significant contribution towards meeting green economy objectives. Moreover, it is of high interest to analyze the potential impacts of EU’s renewable energy directive (RED 1 and the ongoing RED 2) on the forest sector in Europe and overseas. In order to examine global challenges regarding energy, climate change, ecological impacts, technology developments and sustainable use of land and natural resources in the upcoming circular bioeconomy era (EEA 2018), improved analysis tools are required. The utilization of Forest Sector Models (henceforth, FSMs), linking forestry and forest industry activities, has been found useful for assessing the interplay between forest resources and forest commodity markets, accounting for competition and synergies between different uses of wood. This thesis investigates the impacts of increased use of wood-based bioenergy on forest resources and markets of forest and wood products, and explores the strengths and weaknesses of FSMs.Unia Europejska (odtąd UE) jest na dobrej drodze, aby osiągnąć wyznaczone na 2020 rok cele w zakresie produkcji i zużycia energii odnawialnej. Także ostatnio, nowe ramy klimatyczne i energetyczne zostały zaproponowane na rok 2030. Zakłada się, że sektor leśny1 ma znacząco przyczynić się do osiągnięcia celów zielonej gospodarki. Ponadto niezwykle istotne jest przeanalizowanie potencjalnych skutków unijnej dyrektywy w sprawie energii odnawialnej (RED 1 i trwająca RED 2) na sektor leśny w Europie i za granicą. Aby zbadać globalne wyzwania dotyczące energii, zmian klimatu, skutków ekologicznych, rozwoju technologii oraz zrównoważonego użytkowania zasobów lądowych i naturalnych w nadchodzącej erze biogospodarki o obiegu zamkniętym (EEA 2018), potrzebne są ulepszone narzędzia analityczne. Wykorzystanie modeli sektora leśnego (odtąd MSL), łączących działalność w zakresie leśnictwa i przemysłu drzewnego, okazało się przydatne do oceny wzajemnych zależności między zasobami leśnymi a rynkami surowca drzewnego, z uwzględnieniem konkurencji i synergii między różnymi zastosowaniami drewna. Niniejsza praca dotyczy wpływu zwiększonego wykorzystania bioenergii, opartej na drewnie, na zasoby leśne i rynki surowca drzewnego oraz analizuje mocne i słabe strony MSL

Economic impacts of changes in fish population dynamics: the role of the fishermen’s harvesting strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a profit-maximizing harvesting strategy over a given number of fishing periods. The scenarios assessed cover a time period of 100 years with sudden changes of the productivity of both species occurring at the midpoint of each simulation. Stock sizes and landings of fish are determined for each fishing period, and the net present values of profits over periods of interest prior to and following the change in population dynamics are calculated. Results show that if the profit-maximizing harvesting strategy is based on a short optimization period, the fleets with the higher efficiency are generally favored. If the strategy is based on an optimization over two or more fishing periods, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth. In such cases, smaller and less cost-intensive vessels are preferred. A reduction of either the productivity or the carrying capacities of the two species has little impact on the fisheries if the change is fairly small. A substantial reduction of either quantity has a lasting negative economic impact which mainly manifests itself in a severely reduced profitability of mainly the cod fishery.bioeconomic modeling, Barents Sea, cod, capelin, population dynamics, harvesting strategy

National and international policies for tropical rain forest conservation: a quantitative analysis for Cameroon

This paper provides a numerical general equilibrium assessment of policies to reduce tropical deforestation in Cameroon. Market failure - mainly in the form of national and international externalities - and policy failures - such as highly distorted product markets - are identified as major sources of overexploitation. The ecological effects of deforestation control are shown to depend crucially upon its impact on land use patterns whereas its efficiency effects hinge on the manner in which a specified set-aside target is achieved. If the international community wants to ensure a higher level of protection of these forests, and to do so within a market-based system, the provision of conditional financial resources is necessary.

The World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund and China

As the first global carbon fund, the World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) aims to catalyze the market for project-based greenhouse gas emission reductions while promoting sustainable development and offering a learning-by-doing opportunity to its stakeholders. Since the inception in 2000, the PCF has engaged in a dialogue with China to get it to sign up as a host country, because the World Bank and other international and bilateral donors expect great potential of the clean development mechanism (CDM) in China and feel the significant need for building CDM capacity in China to enable it to gain more insight into the CDM and increase its capacity to initiate and undertake CDM projects. This paper first discusses why China had hesitated to sign up as a host country of PCF projects until September 2003. Then the paper explains what has led China to endorse the PCF projects. The paper ends with discussions on the implications of the PCF’s offering prices for the emerging global carbon market.Carbon prices, Carbon market, China, Prototype Carbon Fund, The World Bank

Individuals Time Preference and Social Discounting: A Survey and a Meta-Analysis

The choice of an appropriate social rate of discount is critical in the decision-making process on public investments. In this paper we review concisely the literature on social discounting and refer explicitly to a recently growing field of related research, that is, individual time preference. The consideration and analysis of behavioural factors of individuals in the definition and use of an appropriate social discount rate are critical for balanced decision-making, for example, in the field of environmental policy. The empirical literature shows quite some variation in the estimated values of individual discount rates. Therefore, we present results from a meta-analysis conducted over more than 40 experimental and field studies reporting individual discount rate estimates. We find that the experimental design of a study has a great impact on these estimates and conclude that our meta-regression function has a low transfer value.

Network Capital and Social Trust: Pre-Conditions for ‘Good’ Diversity?

This paper unpicks the assumption that because social networks underpin social capital, they directly create it – more of one inevitably making more of the other. If it were that simple, the sheer quantity of networks criss-crossing a defined urban space would be a proxy measure for the local stock of social capital. Of course the interrelationships are more complex. Two kinds of complication stand out. The first is specific: networks have both quantitative and qualitative dimensions, but the two elements have no necessary bearing on each other. The shape and extent of a network says nothing about the content of the links between its nodes. Certainly the line we draw between any two of them indicates contact and potential connection, but what kind of contact, how often, how trusting, in what circumstances, to what end…? Reliable answers to these questions need more than surface maps or bird’s eye accounts of who goes where, who speaks to whom. The second complication is a general, not to say universal, difficulty. We are stuck with the fact that sociological concepts - networks, social capital and trust included - are ‘only’ abstractions. They are ways of thinking about the apparent chaos of people behaving all over the place – here, to make it worse, in multi-cultural urban environments - but none of them is visible to be measured, weighed or quantified. This does not make the concepts ‘untrue’, and it should not stop them being useful. My hope is that we can find a nuanced perspective which will at least make the complications intelligible. At best, a multi-layered model will account for diversity in the nature of trust; and for variations in the way social capital is hoarded or distributed within and across ethnic boundaries. It would be contribution enough if we were able to specify the conditions which cause social capital, as Puttnam formulates it, to be exclusionary or inclusionary in its effect.Network capital, Social trust, ‘Good’ diversity