Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking

Recent measurements in the North Atlantic confirm that the thermohaline circulation driving the Gulf Stream has come to a stand. Oceanographic monitoring over the last 50 years already showed that the circulation was weakening. Under the influence of the large inflow of melting water in Northern Atlantic waters during last summer, it has now virtually stopped. Consequently, the KNMI and the RIVM estimate the average . In this essay we will explore how such a new risk profile affects the distribution of risks among societal groups, and the way in which governing institutions need to adapt in order to be prepared for situations of rapid but unknown change. The next section will first introduce an analytical perspective, building upon the Risk Society thesis and a proposed model of ‘institutional flocking’.temperature to decrease by 3°C in the next 15 years

THE MEGACRISIS UNKNOWN TERRITORY - In Search of Conceptual and Strategic Breakthroughs

The nature of major crises has dramatically evolved over the past fewyears: Megcrises become the name of the game. The goal of this contribution is to capture the evolving notion of crisis, and to prepare new references to deal with the new crisis landscapes. The first section aims at building a renewed understanding of the emerging challenges we face – a combination of rogue events made of severity, speed, ignorance, hypercomplexity, inconceivability, and liquefaction-prone contexts that no longer guarantee the “back to normalcy” comforting rule. The second develops the components of a strategic response which includes: a seminal paradigm shift; a switch from management to leadership, and from “Command and Control” to decisive empowerment; and a whole new approach in education and training.Mega-crises, Critical Thinking, Strategic Approach

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in South Australia: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development.   Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities

Viewfinder: final activity report

The VIEW-FINDER project (2006-2009) is an 'Advanced Robotics' project that seeks to apply a semi-autonomous robotic system to inspect ground safety in the event of a fire. Its primary aim is to gather data (visual and chemical) in order to assist rescue personnel. A base station combines the gathered information with information retrieved from off-site sources. The project addresses key issues related to map building and reconstruction, interfacing local command information with external sources, human-robot interfaces and semi-autonomous robot navigation. The VIEW-FINDER system is a semi-autonomous; the individual robot-sensors operate autonomously within the limits of the task assigned to them, that is, they will autonomously navigate through and inspect an area. Human operators monitor their operations and send high level task requests as well as low level commands through the interface to any nodes in the entire system. The human interface has to ensure the human supervisor and human interveners are provided a reduced but good and relevant overview of the ground and the robots and human rescue workers therein

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Strengthening rules-based order in the Asia-Pacific

This paper explores the opportunities for both Australia and Japan jointly to promote their shared interest in strengthening the rule of law in the Asia–Pacific. Overview The rule of law is an essential condition if cooperation and orderly behaviour are to be advanced in the Asia–Pacific. We need norms and rules that guide—and govern—relations among regional states. Australia and Japan share an interest in minimising the role that coercion plays in the Asia–Pacific and maximising cooperation across the region. We’re both liberal democracies, with a strong bilateral security relationship, an alliance with the United States and a genuine commitment to the rule of law. All Asia–Pacific states would profit by following Australia and Japan’s example in promoting and abiding by the rule of law in their external policies. Indeed, our region would be a much safer place if they did. ASPI has this year worked on a project to explore the opportunities for both Australia and Japan jointly to promote our shared interest in strengthening the rule of law in the Asia–Pacific. This report sets out the project’s key findings and outlines policy proposals to enhance Australia–Japan cooperation to bolster the rule of law in the region

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in the Australian Capital Territory: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development.   Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities. Authored by Jennifer Cane, Laura Cacho, Nicolas Dircks and Peter Steele

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in Victoria: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development. Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities

Enabling Disaster Resilient 4G Mobile Communication Networks

The 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) is the cellular technology expected to outperform the previous generations and to some extent revolutionize the experience of the users by taking advantage of the most advanced radio access techniques (i.e. OFDMA, SC-FDMA, MIMO). However, the strong dependencies between user equipments (UEs), base stations (eNBs) and the Evolved Packet Core (EPC) limit the flexibility, manageability and resiliency in such networks. In case the communication links between UEs-eNB or eNB-EPC are disrupted, UEs are in fact unable to communicate. In this article, we reshape the 4G mobile network to move towards more virtual and distributed architectures for improving disaster resilience, drastically reducing the dependency between UEs, eNBs and EPC. The contribution of this work is twofold. We firstly present the Flexible Management Entity (FME), a distributed entity which leverages on virtualized EPC functionalities in 4G cellular systems. Second, we introduce a simple and novel device-todevice (D2D) communication scheme allowing the UEs in physical proximity to communicate directly without resorting to the coordination with an eNB.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Communications Magazin

Contrasting Views of Complexity and Their Implications For Network-Centric Infrastructures

There exists a widely recognized need to better understand and manage complex “systems of systems,” ranging from biology, ecology, and medicine to network-centric technologies. This is motivating the search for universal laws of highly evolved systems and driving demand for new mathematics and methods that are consistent, integrative, and predictive. However, the theoretical frameworks available today are not merely fragmented but sometimes contradictory and incompatible. We argue that complexity arises in highly evolved biological and technological systems primarily to provide mechanisms to create robustness. However, this complexity itself can be a source of new fragility, leading to “robust yet fragile” tradeoffs in system design. We focus on the role of robustness and architecture in networked infrastructures, and we highlight recent advances in the theory of distributed control driven by network technologies. This view of complexity in highly organized technological and biological systems is fundamentally different from the dominant perspective in the mainstream sciences, which downplays function, constraints, and tradeoffs, and tends to minimize the role of organization and design