Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Competitive on-line learning with a convex loss function

We consider the problem of sequential decision making under uncertainty in which the loss caused by a decision depends on the following binary observation. In competitive on-line learning, the goal is to design decision algorithms that are almost as good as the best decision rules in a wide benchmark class, without making any assumptions about the way the observations are generated. However, standard algorithms in this area can only deal with finite-dimensional (often countable) benchmark classes. In this paper we give similar results for decision rules ranging over an arbitrary reproducing kernel Hilbert space. For example, it is shown that for a wide class of loss functions (including the standard square, absolute, and log loss functions) the average loss of the master algorithm, over the first $N$ observations, does not exceed the average loss of the best decision rule with a bounded norm plus $O(N^{-1/2})$. Our proof technique is very different from the standard ones and is based on recent results about defensive forecasting. Given the probabilities produced by a defensive forecasting algorithm, which are known to be well calibrated and to have good resolution in the long run, we use the expected loss minimization principle to find a suitable decision.Comment: 26 page

On reducing a constrained gradual-impulsive control problem for a jump Markov model to a model with gradual control only

In this paper we consider a gradual-impulsive control problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs) with total cost criteria and constraints. We develop a simple and useful method, which reduces the concerned problem to a standard CTMDP problem with gradual control only. This allows us to derive straightforwardly and under a minimal set of conditions the optimality results (sufficient classes of control policies, as well as the existence of stationary optimal policies) for the original constrained gradual-impulsive control problem

Sequential Deliberation for Social Choice

In large scale collective decision making, social choice is a normative study of how one ought to design a protocol for reaching consensus. However, in instances where the underlying decision space is too large or complex for ordinal voting, standard voting methods of social choice may be impractical. How then can we design a mechanism - preferably decentralized, simple, scalable, and not requiring any special knowledge of the decision space - to reach consensus? We propose sequential deliberation as a natural solution to this problem. In this iterative method, successive pairs of agents bargain over the decision space using the previous decision as a disagreement alternative. We describe the general method and analyze the quality of its outcome when the space of preferences define a median graph. We show that sequential deliberation finds a 1.208- approximation to the optimal social cost on such graphs, coming very close to this value with only a small constant number of agents sampled from the population. We also show lower bounds on simpler classes of mechanisms to justify our design choices. We further show that sequential deliberation is ex-post Pareto efficient and has truthful reporting as an equilibrium of the induced extensive form game. We finally show that for general metric spaces, the second moment of of the distribution of social cost of the outcomes produced by sequential deliberation is also bounded

Efficiency of coordinate descent methods on huge-scale optimization problems

In this paper we propose new methods for solving huge-scale optimization problems. For problems of this size, even the simplest full-dimensional vector operations are very expensive. Hence, we propose to apply an optimization technique based on random partial update of decision variables. For these methods, we prove the global estimates for the rate of convergence. Surprisingly enough, for certain classes of objective functions, our results are better than the standard worst-case bounds for deterministic algorithms. We present constrained and unconstrained versions of the method, and its accelerated variant. Our numerical test confirms a high efficiency of this technique on problems of very big size.Convex optimization, coordinate relaxation, worst-case efficiency estimates, fast gradient schemes, Google problem

A simple technique for improving multi-class classification with neural networks

We present a novel method to perform multi-class pattern classification with neural networks and test it on a challenging 3D hand gesture recognition problem. Our method consists of a standard one-against-all (OAA) classification, followed by another network layer classifying the resulting class scores, possibly augmented by the original raw input vector. This allows the network to disambiguate hard-to-separate classes as the distribution of class scores carries considerable information as well, and is in fact often used for assessing the confidence of a decision. We show that by this approach we are able to significantly boost our results, overall as well as for particular difficult cases, on the hard 10-class gesture classification task.Comment: European Symposium on artificial neural networks (ESANN), Jun 2015, Bruges, Belgiu

Melding the Data-Decisions Pipeline: Decision-Focused Learning for Combinatorial Optimization

Creating impact in real-world settings requires artificial intelligence techniques to span the full pipeline from data, to predictive models, to decisions. These components are typically approached separately: a machine learning model is first trained via a measure of predictive accuracy, and then its predictions are used as input into an optimization algorithm which produces a decision. However, the loss function used to train the model may easily be misaligned with the end goal, which is to make the best decisions possible. Hand-tuning the loss function to align with optimization is a difficult and error-prone process (which is often skipped entirely). We focus on combinatorial optimization problems and introduce a general framework for decision-focused learning, where the machine learning model is directly trained in conjunction with the optimization algorithm to produce high-quality decisions. Technically, our contribution is a means of integrating common classes of discrete optimization problems into deep learning or other predictive models, which are typically trained via gradient descent. The main idea is to use a continuous relaxation of the discrete problem to propagate gradients through the optimization procedure. We instantiate this framework for two broad classes of combinatorial problems: linear programs and submodular maximization. Experimental results across a variety of domains show that decision-focused learning often leads to improved optimization performance compared to traditional methods. We find that standard measures of accuracy are not a reliable proxy for a predictive model's utility in optimization, and our method's ability to specify the true goal as the model's training objective yields substantial dividends across a range of decision problems.Comment: Full version of paper accepted at AAAI 201