Logistic Knowledge Tracing: A Constrained Framework for Learner Modeling

Adaptive learning technology solutions often use a learner model to trace learning and make pedagogical decisions. The present research introduces a formalized methodology for specifying learner models, Logistic Knowledge Tracing (LKT), that consolidates many extant learner modeling methods. The strength of LKT is the specification of a symbolic notation system for alternative logistic regression models that is powerful enough to specify many extant models in the literature and many new models. To demonstrate the generality of LKT, we fit 12 models, some variants of well-known models and some newly devised, to 6 learning technology datasets. The results indicated that no single learner model was best in all cases, further justifying a broad approach that considers multiple learner model features and the learning context. The models presented here avoid student-level fixed parameters to increase generalizability. We also introduce features to stand in for these intercepts. We argue that to be maximally applicable, a learner model needs to adapt to student differences, rather than needing to be pre-parameterized with the level of each student's ability

Domain transfer for deep natural language generation from abstract meaning representations

Stochastic natural language generation systems that are trained from labelled datasets are often domainspecific in their annotation and in their mapping from semantic input representations to lexical-syntactic outputs. As a result, learnt models fail to generalize across domains, heavily restricting their usability beyond single applications. In this article, we focus on the problem of domain adaptation for natural language generation. We show how linguistic knowledge from a source domain, for which labelled data is available, can be adapted to a target domain by reusing training data across domains. As a key to this, we propose to employ abstract meaning representations as a common semantic representation across domains. We model natural language generation as a long short-term memory recurrent neural network encoderdecoder, in which one recurrent neural network learns a latent representation of a semantic input, and a second recurrent neural network learns to decode it to a sequence of words. We show that the learnt representations can be transferred across domains and can be leveraged effectively to improve training on new unseen domains. Experiments in three different domains and with six datasets demonstrate that the lexical-syntactic constructions learnt in one domain can be transferred to new domains and achieve up to 75-100% of the performance of in-domain training. This is based on objective metrics such as BLEU and semantic error rate and a subjective human rating study. Training a policy from prior knowledge from a different domain is consistently better than pure in-domain training by up to 10%

How Fast Can We Play Tetris Greedily With Rectangular Pieces?

Consider a variant of Tetris played on a board of width $w$ and infinite height, where the pieces are axis-aligned rectangles of arbitrary integer dimensions, the pieces can only be moved before letting them drop, and a row does not disappear once it is full. Suppose we want to follow a greedy strategy: let each rectangle fall where it will end up the lowest given the current state of the board. To do so, we want a data structure which can always suggest a greedy move. In other words, we want a data structure which maintains a set of $O(n)$ rectangles, supports queries which return where to drop the rectangle, and updates which insert a rectangle dropped at a certain position and return the height of the highest point in the updated set of rectangles. We show via a reduction to the Multiphase problem [P\u{a}tra\c{s}cu, 2010] that on a board of width $w=\Theta(n)$, if the OMv conjecture [Henzinger et al., 2015] is true, then both operations cannot be supported in time $O(n^{1/2-\epsilon})$ simultaneously. The reduction also implies polynomial bounds from the 3-SUM conjecture and the APSP conjecture. On the other hand, we show that there is a data structure supporting both operations in $O(n^{1/2}\log^{3/2}n)$ time on boards of width $n^{O(1)}$, matching the lower bound up to a $n^{o(1)}$ factor.Comment: Correction of typos and other minor correction

Predictive Framework for Imbalance Dataset

The purpose of this research is to seek and propose a new predictive maintenance framework which can be used to generate a prediction model for deterioration of process materials. Real yield data which was obtained from Fuji Electric Malaysia has been used in this research. The existing data pre-processing and classification methodologies have been adapted in this research. Properties of the proposed framework include; developing an approach to correlate materials defects, developing an approach to represent data attributes features, analyzing various ratio and types of data re-sampling, analyzing the impact of data dimension reduction for various data size, and partitioning data size and algorithmic schemes against the prediction performance. Experimental results suggested that the class probability distribution function of a prediction model has to be closer to a training dataset; less skewed environment enable learning schemes to discover better function F in a bigger Fall space within a higher dimensional feature space, data sampling and partition size is appear to proportionally improve the precision and recall if class distribution ratios are balanced. A comparative study was also conducted and showed that the proposed approaches have performed better. This research was conducted based on limited number of datasets, test sets and variables. Thus, the obtained results are applicable only to the study domain with selected datasets. This research has introduced a new predictive maintenance framework which can be used in manufacturing industries to generate a prediction model based on the deterioration of process materials. Consequently, this may allow manufactures to conduct predictive maintenance not only for equipments but also process materials. The major contribution of this research is a step by step guideline which consists of methods/approaches in generating a prediction for process materials

Improving machine translation systems via isotopic replacement

Machine translation plays an essential role in people’s daily international communication. However, machine translation systems are far from perfect. To tackle this problem, researchers have proposed several approaches to testing machine translation. A promising trend among these approaches is to use word replacement, where only one word in the original sentence is replaced with another word to form a sentence pair. However, precise control of the impact of word replacement remains an outstanding issue in these approaches. To address this issue, we propose CAT, a novel word-replacement-based approach, whose basic idea is to identify word replacement with controlled impact (referred to as isotopic replacement). To achieve this purpose, we use a neural-based language model to encode the sentence context, and design a neural-network-based algorithm to evaluate context-aware semantic similarity between two words. Furthermore, similar to TransRepair, a state-of-the-art word-replacement-based approach, CAT also provides automatic fixing of revealed bugs without model retraining. Our evaluation on Google Translate and Transformer indicates that CAT achieves significant improvements over TransRepair. In particular, 1) CAT detects seven more types of bugs than TransRepair; 2) CAT detects 129% more translation bugs than TransRepair; 3) CAT repairs twice more bugs than TransRepair, many of which may bring serious consequences if left unfixed; and 4) CAT has better efficiency than TransRepair in input generation (0.01s v.s. 0.41s) and comparable efficiency with TransRepair in bug repair (1.92s v.s. 1.34s)

A soft computing decision support framework for e-learning

Tesi per compendi de publicacions.Supported by technological development and its impact on everyday activities, e-Learning and b-Learning (Blended Learning) have experienced rapid growth mainly in higher education and training. Its inherent ability to break both physical and cultural distances, to disseminate knowledge and decrease the costs of the teaching-learning process allows it to reach anywhere and anyone. The educational community is divided as to its role in the future. It is believed that by 2019 half of the world's higher education courses will be delivered through e-Learning. While supporters say that this will be the educational mode of the future, its detractors point out that it is a fashion, that there are huge rates of abandonment and that their massification and potential low quality, will cause its fall, assigning it a major role of accompanying traditional education. There are, however, two interrelated features where there seems to be consensus. On the one hand, the enormous amount of information and evidence that Learning Management Systems (LMS) generate during the e-Learning process and which is the basis of the part of the process that can be automated. In contrast, there is the fundamental role of e-tutors and etrainers who are guarantors of educational quality. These are continually overwhelmed by the need to provide timely and effective feedback to students, manage endless particular situations and casuistics that require decision making and process stored information. In this sense, the tools that e-Learning platforms currently provide to obtain reports and a certain level of follow-up are not sufficient or too adequate. It is in this point of convergence Information-Trainer, where the current developments of the LMS are centered and it is here where the proposed thesis tries to innovate. This research proposes and develops a platform focused on decision support in e-Learning environments. Using soft computing and data mining techniques, it extracts knowledge from the data produced and stored by e-Learning systems, allowing the classification, analysis and generalization of the extracted knowledge. It includes tools to identify models of students' learning behavior and, from them, predict their future performance and enable trainers to provide adequate feedback. Likewise, students can self-assess, avoid those ineffective behavior patterns, and obtain real clues about how to improve their performance in the course, through appropriate routes and strategies based on the behavioral model of successful students. The methodological basis of the mentioned functionalities is the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR), which is particularly useful in the modeling of dynamic systems. During the development of the research, the FIR methodology has been improved and empowered by the inclusion of several algorithms. First, an algorithm called CR-FIR, which allows determining the Causal Relevance that have the variables involved in the modeling of learning and assessment of students. In the present thesis, CR-FIR has been tested on a comprehensive set of classical test data, as well as real data sets, belonging to different areas of knowledge. Secondly, the detection of atypical behaviors in virtual campuses was approached using the Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) methodology, which is a probabilistic alternative to the well-known Self-Organizing Maps. GTM was used simultaneously for clustering, visualization and detection of atypical data. The core of the platform has been the development of an algorithm for extracting linguistic rules in a language understandable to educational experts, which helps them to obtain patterns of student learning behavior. In order to achieve this functionality, the LR-FIR algorithm (Extraction of Linguistic Rules in FIR) was designed and developed as an extension of FIR that allows both to characterize general behavior and to identify interesting patterns. In the case of the application of the platform to several real e-Learning courses, the results obtained demonstrate its feasibility and originality. The teachers' perception about the usability of the tool is very good, and they consider that it could be a valuable resource to mitigate the time requirements of the trainer that the e-Learning courses demand. The identification of student behavior models and prediction processes have been validated as to their usefulness by expert trainers. LR-FIR has been applied and evaluated in a wide set of real problems, not all of them in the educational field, obtaining good results. The structure of the platform makes it possible to assume that its use is potentially valuable in those domains where knowledge management plays a preponderant role, or where decision-making processes are a key element, e.g. ebusiness, e-marketing, customer management, to mention just a few. The Soft Computing tools used and developed in this research: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR and GTM, have been applied successfully in other real domains, such as music, medicine, weather behaviors, etc.Soportado por el desarrollo tecnológico y su impacto en las diferentes actividades cotidianas, el e-Learning (o aprendizaje electrónico) y el b-Learning (Blended Learning o aprendizaje mixto), han experimentado un crecimiento vertiginoso principalmente en la educación superior y la capacitación. Su habilidad inherente para romper distancias tanto físicas como culturales, para diseminar conocimiento y disminuir los costes del proceso enseñanza aprendizaje le permite llegar a cualquier sitio y a cualquier persona. La comunidad educativa se encuentra dividida en cuanto a su papel en el futuro. Se cree que para el año 2019 la mitad de los cursos de educación superior del mundo se impartirá a través del e-Learning. Mientras que los partidarios aseguran que ésta será la modalidad educativa del futuro, sus detractores señalan que es una moda, que hay enormes índices de abandono y que su masificación y potencial baja calidad, provocará su caída, reservándole un importante papel de acompañamiento a la educación tradicional. Hay, sin embargo, dos características interrelacionadas donde parece haber consenso. Por un lado, la enorme generación de información y evidencias que los sistemas de gestión del aprendizaje o LMS (Learning Management System) generan durante el proceso educativo electrónico y que son la base de la parte del proceso que se puede automatizar. En contraste, está el papel fundamental de los e-tutores y e-formadores que son los garantes de la calidad educativa. Éstos se ven continuamente desbordados por la necesidad de proporcionar retroalimentación oportuna y eficaz a los alumnos, gestionar un sin fin de situaciones particulares y casuísticas que requieren toma de decisiones y procesar la información almacenada. En este sentido, las herramientas que las plataformas de e-Learning proporcionan actualmente para obtener reportes y cierto nivel de seguimiento no son suficientes ni demasiado adecuadas. Es en este punto de convergencia Información-Formador, donde están centrados los actuales desarrollos de los LMS y es aquí donde la tesis que se propone pretende innovar. La presente investigación propone y desarrolla una plataforma enfocada al apoyo en la toma de decisiones en ambientes e-Learning. Utilizando técnicas de Soft Computing y de minería de datos, extrae conocimiento de los datos producidos y almacenados por los sistemas e-Learning permitiendo clasificar, analizar y generalizar el conocimiento extraído. Incluye herramientas para identificar modelos del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes y, a partir de ellos, predecir su desempeño futuro y permitir a los formadores proporcionar una retroalimentación adecuada. Así mismo, los estudiantes pueden autoevaluarse, evitar aquellos patrones de comportamiento poco efectivos y obtener pistas reales acerca de cómo mejorar su desempeño en el curso, mediante rutas y estrategias adecuadas a partir del modelo de comportamiento de los estudiantes exitosos. La base metodológica de las funcionalidades mencionadas es el Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR, por sus siglas en inglés), que es particularmente útil en el modelado de sistemas dinámicos. Durante el desarrollo de la investigación, la metodología FIR ha sido mejorada y potenciada mediante la inclusión de varios algoritmos. En primer lugar un algoritmo denominado CR-FIR, que permite determinar la Relevancia Causal que tienen las variables involucradas en el modelado del aprendizaje y la evaluación de los estudiantes. En la presente tesis, CR-FIR se ha probado en un conjunto amplio de datos de prueba clásicos, así como conjuntos de datos reales, pertenecientes a diferentes áreas de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, la detección de comportamientos atípicos en campus virtuales se abordó mediante el enfoque de Mapeo Topográfico Generativo (GTM), que es una alternativa probabilística a los bien conocidos Mapas Auto-organizativos. GTM se utilizó simultáneamente para agrupamiento, visualización y detección de datos atípicos. La parte medular de la plataforma ha sido el desarrollo de un algoritmo de extracción de reglas lingüísticas en un lenguaje entendible para los expertos educativos, que les ayude a obtener los patrones del comportamiento de aprendizaje de los estudiantes. Para lograr dicha funcionalidad, se diseñó y desarrolló el algoritmo LR-FIR, (extracción de Reglas Lingüísticas en FIR, por sus siglas en inglés) como una extensión de FIR que permite tanto caracterizar el comportamiento general, como identificar patrones interesantes. En el caso de la aplicación de la plataforma a varios cursos e-Learning reales, los resultados obtenidos demuestran su factibilidad y originalidad. La percepción de los profesores acerca de la usabilidad de la herramienta es muy buena, y consideran que podría ser un valioso recurso para mitigar los requerimientos de tiempo del formador que los cursos e-Learning exigen. La identificación de los modelos de comportamiento de los estudiantes y los procesos de predicción han sido validados en cuanto a su utilidad por los formadores expertos. LR-FIR se ha aplicado y evaluado en un amplio conjunto de problemas reales, no todos ellos del ámbito educativo, obteniendo buenos resultados. La estructura de la plataforma permite suponer que su utilización es potencialmente valiosa en aquellos dominios donde la administración del conocimiento juegue un papel preponderante, o donde los procesos de toma de decisiones sean una pieza clave, por ejemplo, e-business, e-marketing, administración de clientes, por mencionar sólo algunos. Las herramientas de Soft Computing utilizadas y desarrolladas en esta investigación: FIR, CR-FIR, LR-FIR y GTM, ha sido aplicadas con éxito en otros dominios reales, como música, medicina, comportamientos climáticos, etc.Postprint (published version

Hide and Seek: Scaling Machine Learning for Combinatorial Optimization via the Probabilistic Method

Applying deep learning to solve real-life instances of hard combinatorial problems has tremendous potential. Research in this direction has focused on the Boolean satisfiability (SAT) problem, both because of its theoretical centrality and practical importance. A major roadblock faced, though, is that training sets are restricted to random formulas of size several orders of magnitude smaller than formulas of practical interest, raising serious concerns about generalization. This is because labeling random formulas of increasing size rapidly becomes intractable. By exploiting the probabilistic method in a fundamental way, we remove this roadblock entirely: we show how to generate correctly labeled random formulas of any desired size, without having to solve the underlying decision problem. Moreover, the difficulty of the classification task for the formulas produced by our generator is tunable by varying a simple scalar parameter. This opens up an entirely new level of sophistication for the machine learning methods that can be brought to bear on Satisfiability. Using our generator, we train existing state-of-the-art models for the task of predicting satisfiability on formulas with 10,000 variables. We find that they do no better than random guessing. As a first indication of what can be achieved with the new generator, we present a novel classifier that performs significantly better than random guessing 99% on the same datasets, for most difficulty levels. Crucially, unlike past approaches that learn based on syntactic features of a formula, our classifier performs its learning on a short prefix of a solver's computation, an approach that we expect to be of independent interest