Social Media and Forecasting Stock Price Change

The Stock Market is a big influence on both national and international economies. Stock prices are driven by a number of factors: industry performance, company news and performance, investor confidence, micro and macro economic factors like employment rates, wage rates, etc. Stock pricing trends can be gauged from the factors that drive it as well as from the stock\u27s historical performance. As fluctuations in stock prices become more volatile and unpredictable, forecasting models help reduce some of the randomness involved in investing and financial decision making. Users on social media platforms like twitter, StockTwits, and eToro discuss issues related to the stock market. Can the analysis of posts on StockTwits add value to the existing features of stock price predicting models? An existing model that uses twits as features was extended to include sentiment analysis of the text referenced by the URL in the twits to see if the model accuracy did improve. Initial results indicate that the addition of sentiment analysis of the text referenced by the URL does not improve the performance of the model when all twits for a given day are taken into account since the model only identifies the direction of change and not the degree of change. The stock prediction model achieves 65% accuracy compared to the base case accuracy of 44% and augmenting the model with sentiment analysis did not change the accuracy. The study highlights some interesting observations regarding users on the StockTwits social media platform and proposes the need for a domain specific sentiment analyzer in future work

A novel data analytic model for mining user insurance demands from microblogs

This paper proposes a method based on LDA model and Word2Vec for analyzing Microblog users' insurance demands. First of all, we use LDA model to analyze the text data of Microblog user to get their candidate topic. Secondly, we use CBOW model to implement topic word vectorization and use word similarity calculation to expand it. Then we use K-means model to cluster the expanded words and redefine the topic category. Then we use the LDA model to extract the keywords of various insurance information on the “Pingan Insurance” website and analyze the possibility of users with different demands to purchase various types of insurance with the help of word vector similarity. Finally, the validity of the method in this paper is verified against Microblog user information. The experimental results show that the accuracy, recall rate and F1 value of the LDA-CBOW extending method have been proposed compared with that of the traditional LDA model, respectively, which proves the feasibility of this method. The results of this paper will help insurance companies to accurately grasp the preferences of Microblog users, understand the potential insurance needs of users timely, and lay a foundation for personalized recommendation of insurance products

Sentiment analysis and real-time microblog search

This thesis sets out to examine the role played by sentiment in real-time microblog search. The recent prominence of the real-time web is proving both challenging and disruptive for a number of areas of research, notably information retrieval and web data mining. User-generated content on the real-time web is perhaps best epitomised by content on microblogging platforms, such as Twitter. Given the substantial quantity of microblog posts that may be relevant to a user query at a given point in time, automated methods are required to enable users to sift through this information. As an area of research reaching maturity, sentiment analysis offers a promising direction for modelling the text content in microblog streams. In this thesis we review the real-time web as a new area of focus for sentiment analysis, with a specific focus on microblogging. We propose a system and method for evaluating the effect of sentiment on perceived search quality in real-time microblog search scenarios. Initially we provide an evaluation of sentiment analysis using supervised learning for classi- fying the short, informal content in microblog posts. We then evaluate our sentiment-based filtering system for microblog search in a user study with simulated real-time scenarios. Lastly, we conduct real-time user studies for the live broadcast of the popular television programme, the X Factor, and for the Leaders Debate during the Irish General Election. We find that we are able to satisfactorily classify positive, negative and neutral sentiment in microblog posts. We also find a significant role played by sentiment in many microblog search scenarios, observing some detrimental effects in filtering out certain sentiment types. We make a series of observations regarding associations between document-level sentiment and user feedback, including associations with user profile attributes, and users’ prior topic sentiment

Chinese Fine-Grained Financial Sentiment Analysis with Large Language Models

Entity-level fine-grained sentiment analysis in the financial domain is a crucial subtask of sentiment analysis and currently faces numerous challenges. The primary challenge stems from the lack of high-quality and large-scale annotated corpora specifically designed for financial text sentiment analysis, which in turn limits the availability of data necessary for developing effective text processing techniques. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have yielded remarkable performance in natural language processing tasks, primarily centered around language pattern matching. In this paper, we propose a novel and extensive Chinese fine-grained financial sentiment analysis dataset, FinChina SA, for enterprise early warning. We thoroughly evaluate and experiment with well-known existing open-source LLMs using our dataset. We firmly believe that our dataset will serve as a valuable resource to advance the exploration of real-world financial sentiment analysis tasks, which should be the focus of future research. The FinChina SA dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/YerayL/FinChina-SAComment: FinLLM Symposium at IJCAI 202

Multidimensional opinion mining from social data

Social media popularity and importance is on the increase due to people using it for various types of social interaction across multiple channels. This thesis focuses on the evolving research area of Social Opinion Mining, tasked with the identification of multiple opinion dimensions, such as subjectivity, sentiment polarity, emotion, affect, sarcasm, and irony, from user-generated content represented across multiple social media platforms and in various media formats, like textual, visual, and audio. Mining people’s social opinions from social sources, such as social media platforms and newswires commenting sections, is a valuable business asset that can be utilised in many ways and in multiple domains, such as Politics, Finance, and Government. The main objective of this research is to investigate how a multidimensional approach to Social Opinion Mining affects fine-grained opinion search and summarisation at an aspect-based level and whether such a multidimensional approach outperforms single dimension approaches in the context of an extrinsic human evaluation conducted in a real-world context: the Malta Government Budget, where five social opinion dimensions are taken into consideration, namely subjectivity, sentiment polarity, emotion, irony, and sarcasm. This human evaluation determines whether the multidimensional opinion summarisation results provide added-value to potential end-users, such as policy-makers and decision-takers, thereby providing a nuanced voice to the general public on their social opinions on topics of a national importance. Results obtained indicate that a more fine-grained aspect-based opinion summary based on the combined dimensions of subjectivity, sentiment polarity, emotion, and sarcasm or irony is more informative and more useful than one based on sentiment polarity only. This research contributes towards the advancement of intelligent search and information retrieval from social data and impacts entities utilising Social Opinion Mining results towards effective policy formulation, policy-making, decision-making, and decision-taking at a strategic level