5,221 research outputs found
A neural network-based framework for financial model calibration
A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed
to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network
(ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as
training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available
financial option prices. The framework consists of two parts: a forward pass in
which we train the weights of the ANN off-line, valuing options under many
different asset model parameter settings; and a backward pass, in which we
evaluate the trained ANN-solver on-line, aiming to find the weights of the
neurons in the input layer. The rapid on-line learning of implied volatility by
ANNs, in combination with the use of an adapted parallel global optimization
method, tackles the computation bottleneck and provides a fast and reliable
technique for calibrating model parameters while avoiding, as much as possible,
getting stuck in local minima. Numerical experiments confirm that this
machine-learning framework can be employed to calibrate parameters of
high-dimensional stochastic volatility models efficiently and accurately.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures, 11 table
Smiles all around: FX joint calibration in a multi-Heston model
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model,
which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla
markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine
models and relying on a reasonable number of parameters. A successful joint
calibration to real market data is presented together with various in- and
out-of-sample calibration exercises to highlight the robustness of the
parameters estimation. The proposed model preserves the natural inversion and
triangulation symmetries of FX spot rates and its functional form, irrespective
of choice of the risk-free currency. That is, all currencies are treated in the
same way.Comment: Journal of Banking and Finance. Accepte
The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007
This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.
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A market-consistent framework for the fair evaluation of insurance contracts under Solvency II
The entry into force of the Solvency II regulatory regime is pushing insurance companies in engaging into market consistence evaluation of their balance sheet, mainly with reference to financial options and guarantees embedded in life with-profit funds. The robustness of these valuations is crucial for insurance companies in order to produce sound estimates and good risk management strategies, in particular, for liability-driven products such as with-profit saving and pension funds. This paper introduces a Monte Carlo simulation approach for evaluation of insurance assets and liabilities, which is more suitable for risk management of liability-driven products than common approaches generally adopted by insurance companies, in particular, with respect to the assessment of valuation risk
Vanna-Volga methods applied to FX derivatives : from theory to market practice
We study Vanna-Volga methods which are used to price first generation exotic
options in the Foreign Exchange market. They are based on a rescaling of the
correction to the Black-Scholes price through the so-called `probability of
survival' and the `expected first exit time'. Since the methods rely heavily on
the appropriate treatment of market data we also provide a summary of the
relevant conventions. We offer a justification of the core technique for the
case of vanilla options and show how to adapt it to the pricing of exotic
options. Our results are compared to a large collection of indicative market
prices and to more sophisticated models. Finally we propose a simple
calibration method based on one-touch prices that allows the Vanna-Volga
results to be in line with our pool of market data
Stock Market Volatility and Learning
We study a standard consumption based asset pricing model with rationally investing agents but allow agents' prior beliefs about price and dividend behavior to deviate slightly from rational expectations priors. Learning about stock price behavior then causes the model to become quantitatively consistent with a range of basic asset prizing 'puzzles': stock returns display momentum and mean reversion, asset prices become volatile, the price-dividend ratio displays persistence, long-horizon returns become predictable and a risk premium emerges. Comparing the moments of the model with those in the data using confidence bands from the method of simulated moments, we show that our findings are robust to different assumptions on the system of beliefs and other model features. We depart from previous studies of asset prices under learning in that agents form expectations about future stock prices using past price observations.asset pricing, learning, near-rational price forecasts
LIBOR additive model calibration to swaptions markets
In the current paper, we introduce a new calibration methodology for the LIBOR market model
driven by LIBOR additive processes based in an inverse problem. This problem can be splitted
in the calibration of the continuous and discontinuous part, linking each part of the problem
with at-the-money and in/out -of -the-money swaption volatilies. The continuous part is based
on a semidefinite programming (convex) problem, with constraints in terms of variability or
robustness, and the calibration of the Lévy measure is proposed to calibrate inverting the
Fourier Transform
Working Capital Requirement and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle
Shimer (2005) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock lowers the real marginal cost of production and lowers inflation. In response to the fall in price level, the monetary authority reduces the nominal interest rate. A lower interest rate reduces the cost of financing and partially offsets the increase in labor cost from a higher productivity. A reduced labor cost implies the firms retain a greater portion of the gain from a productivity shock, which gives them a greater incentive to create vacancies. Simulations show that a working capital requirement does indeed improve the ability of the search models to generate fluctuations in key labor market variables to better match the U.S. data
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