Disease Progression Modeling and Prediction through Random Effect Gaussian Processes and Time Transformation

The development of statistical approaches for the joint modelling of the temporal changes of imaging, biochemical, and clinical biomarkers is of paramount importance for improving the understanding of neurodegenerative disorders, and for providing a reference for the prediction and quantification of the pathology in unseen individuals. Nonetheless, the use of disease progression models for probabilistic predictions still requires investigation, for example for accounting for missing observations in clinical data, and for accurate uncertainty quantification. We tackle this problem by proposing a novel Gaussian process-based method for the joint modeling of imaging and clinical biomarker progressions from time series of individual observations. The model is formulated to account for individual random effects and time reparameterization, allowing non-parametric estimates of the biomarker evolution, as well as high flexibility in specifying correlation structure, and time transformation models. Thanks to the Bayesian formulation, the model naturally accounts for missing data, and allows for uncertainty quantification in the estimate of evolutions, as well as for probabilistic prediction of disease staging in unseen patients. The experimental results show that the proposed model provides a biologically plausible description of the evolution of Alzheimer's pathology across the whole disease time-span as well as remarkable predictive performance when tested on a large clinical cohort with missing observations.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Improved Cardiorespiratory Fitness Is Associated with Increased Cortical Thickness in Mild Cognitive Impairment

Cortical atrophy is a biomarker of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) that correlates with clinical symptoms. This study examined changes in cortical thickness from before to after an exercise intervention in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy elders. Thirty physically inactive older adults (14 MCI, 16 healthy controls) underwent MRI before and after participating in a 12-week moderate intensity walking intervention. Participants were between the ages of 61 and 88. Change in cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using residualized scores of the peak rate of oxygen consumption (V̇O2peak) from pre- to post-intervention. Structural magnetic resonance images were processed using FreeSurfer v5.1.0. V̇O2peak increased an average of 8.49%, which was comparable between MCI and healthy elders. Overall, cortical thickness was stable except for a significant decrease in the right fusiform gyrus in both groups. However, improvement in cardiorespiratory fitness due to the intervention (V̇O2peak) was positively correlated with cortical thickness change in the bilateral insula, precentral gyri, precuneus, posterior cingulate, and inferior and superior frontal cortices. Moreover, MCI participants exhibited stronger positive correlations compared to healthy elders in the left insula and superior temporal gyrus. A 12-week moderate intensity walking intervention led to significantly improved fitness in both MCI and healthy elders. Improved V̇O2peak was associated with widespread increased cortical thickness, which was similar between MCI and healthy elders. Thus, regular exercise may be an especially beneficial intervention to counteract cortical atrophy in all risk groups, and may provide protection against future cognitive decline in both healthy elders and MCI

Diffusion Tensor Imaging Predictors of Episodic Memory Decline in Healthy Elders at Genetic Risk for Alzheimer’s Disease

Objectives: White matter (WM) integrity within the mesial temporal lobe (MTL) is important for episodic memory (EM) functioning. The current study investigated the ability of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in MTL WM tracts to predict 3-year changes in EM performance in healthy elders at disproportionately higher genetic risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Methods: Fifty-one cognitively intact elders (52% with family history (FH) of dementia and 33% possessing an Apolipoprotein E ε4 allelle) were administered the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) at study entry and at 3-year follow-up. DTI scanning, conducted at study entry, examined fractional anisotropy and mean, radial and axial diffusion within three MTL WM tracts: uncinate fasciculus (UNC), cingulate-hippocampal (CHG), and fornix-stria terminalis (FxS). Correlations were performed between residualized change scores computed from RAVLT trials 1–5, immediate recall, and delayed recall scores and baseline DTI measures; MTL gray matter (GM) and WM volumes; demographics; and AD genetic and metabolic risk factors. Results: Higher MTL mean and axial diffusivity at baseline significantly predicted 3-year changes in EM, whereas baseline MTL GM and WM volumes, FH, and metabolic risk factors did not. Both ε4 status and DTI correlated with change in immediate recall. Conclusions: Longitudinal EM changes in cognitively intact, healthy elders can be predicted by disruption of the MTL WM microstructure. These results are derived from a sample with a disproportionately higher genetic risk for AD, suggesting that the observed WM disruption in MTL pathways may be related to early neuropathological changes associated with the preclinical stage of AD. (JINS, 2016, 22, 1005–1015

Predicting the course of Alzheimer's progression.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease and is characterized by the accumulation of amyloid-beta peptides leading to the formation of plaques and tau protein tangles in brain. These neuropathological features precede cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's dementia by many years. To better understand and predict the course of disease from early-stage asymptomatic to late-stage dementia, it is critical to study the patterns of progression of multiple markers. In particular, we aim to predict the likely future course of progression for individuals given only a single observation of their markers. Improved individual-level prediction may lead to improved clinical care and clinical trials. We propose a two-stage approach to modeling and predicting measures of cognition, function, brain imaging, fluid biomarkers, and diagnosis of individuals using multiple domains simultaneously. In the first stage, joint (or multivariate) mixed-effects models are used to simultaneously model multiple markers over time. In the second stage, random forests are used to predict categorical diagnoses (cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, or dementia) from predictions of continuous markers based on the first-stage model. The combination of the two models allows one to leverage their key strengths in order to obtain improved accuracy. We characterize the predictive accuracy of this two-stage approach using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. The two-stage approach using a single joint mixed-effects model for all continuous outcomes yields better diagnostic classification accuracy compared to using separate univariate mixed-effects models for each of the continuous outcomes. Overall prediction accuracy above 80% was achieved over a period of 2.5 years. The results further indicate that overall accuracy is improved when markers from multiple assessment domains, such as cognition, function, and brain imaging, are used in the prediction algorithm as compared to the use of markers from a single domain only

Shared latent structures between imaging features and biomarkers in early stages of Alzheimer's disease: a predictive study

© 2019 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes,creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides high resolution brain morphological information and is used as a biomarker in neurodegenerative diseases. Population studies of brain morphology often seek to identify pathological structural changes related to different diagnostic categories (e.g: controls, mild cognitive impairment or dementia) which normally describe highly heterogeneous groups with a single categorical variable. Instead, multiple biomarkers are used as a proxy for pathology and are more powerful in capturing structural variability. Hence, using the joint modeling of brain morphology and biomarkers, we aim at describing structural changes related to any brain condition by means of few underlying processes. In this regard, we use a multivariate approach based on Projection to Latent Structures in its regression variant (PLSR) to study structural changes related to aging and AD pathology. MRI volumetric and cortical thickness measurements are used for brain morphology and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers (t-tau, p-tau and amyloid-beta) are used as a proxy for AD pathology. By relating both sets of measurements, PLSR finds a low-dimensional latent space describing AD pathological effects on brain structure. The proposed framework allows to separately model aging effects on brain morphology as a confounder variable orthogonal to the pathological effect. The predictive power of the associated latent spaces (i.e. the capacity of predicting biomarker values) is assessed in a cross-validation framework.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft