Probability of informed trading and volatility for an ETF

We use the new procedure developed by Easley et al. to estimate the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN), based on the volume imbalance: Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN). Unlike the previous method, this one does not require the use of numerical methods to estimate unobservable parameters. We also relate the VPIN metric to volatility measures. However, we use most efficient estimators of volatility which consider the number of jumps. Moreover, we add the VPIN to a Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility to further investigate its relation with volatility. For the empirical analysis we use data on the exchange traded fund (SPY)

International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics : a dynamic panel analysis

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks. JEL Classification: F31, F37, C2

Optimal Rate of Inflation in Hungary

This paper, requested by the Monetary Council, attempts to determine the level of inflation consistent with price stability, taking into account the characteristics of the Hungarian economy. Price stability is defined as the level of inflation that allows the maximisation of social welfare on a 15-20 year horizon, which corresponds to the first phase of real convergence. In other words, this study aims to determine the inflation rate that can be considered optimal within the given time horizon. In developed countries, the primary objective of central banks is the maintenance of price stability, in view of the welfare costs of inflation. Price stability is usually taken to mean a low, but non-zero, inflation rate. A positive inflation rate can be justified since very low inflation rates, in the proximity of zero, have been found to reduce long-term welfare. The negative welfare effect of zero inflation can be explained in terms of the following: asymmetric nominal rigidities, the risk of deflation, the necessity of positive nominal interest rates, and the statistical measurement bias in the CPI. These factors were examined in light of the catching-up status of Hungary, focusing, in particular, on the question of whether or not, due to its catching-up status, the optimum rate of inflation in Hungary is higher than the 1-2,5% inflation rate defined in developed countries. The findings of the study suggest that the inflation rate corresponding to price stability in Hungary is higher than the inflation target of the European Central Bank. Our calculations suggest that, in the long run, inflation in the range of 2,3-3,2% can safeguard against the costs of deflation. This level can compensate for the distortions in the CPI and allow for real price adjustments, even if Hungarian tradable prices move together with those of its trading partners and assuming downward price rigidity.optimal inflation rate, price stability, costs of inflation.

Aquaculture, fisheries, poverty and food security

Fisheries and aquaculture play important roles in providing food and income in many developing countries, either as a stand-alone activity or in association with crop agriculture and livestock rearing. The aim of this paper is to identify how these contributions of fisheries and aquaculture to poverty reduction and food security can be enhanced while also addressing the need for a sustainability transition in over-exploited and over-capitalized capture fisheries, and for improved environmental performance and distributive justice in a rapidly growing aquaculture sector. The focus of the paper is on the poverty and food security concerns of developing countries, with an emphasis on the least developed. The emphasis is on food security rather than poverty reduction policies and strategies, although the two are of course related. The food security agenda is very much to the fore at present; fish prices rose along with other food prices in 2007-8 and as fish provide important nutritional benefits to the poor, food security has become a primary concern for sector policy

The restructuring and future of the British Rail system

The paper focuses mainly on reviewing and analysing the restructuring of Britain’s railways, including the re-cently published proposals for its future. The objective is to investigate the current market structure, the market behaviour and the overall performance of the British rail system over time. In order to learn what other people think about the problems of the industry and their solutions, interviews with key people associated with the in-dustry and several submissions of some key interest parties to the 2004 railway structure review are used in this paper. The results are that all major characteristics of the rail reform in Britain are seen as workable and empiri-cal data reveal that they have worked comparatively successfully, before Hatfield. Because of bad implementa-tion some of the features, and in particular the private infrastructure manager, have not worked well. Most of the problems have arisen because of indecision over refranchising and the disruption following Hatfield. Further-more the policy of the Government after Hatfield created an extremely risk averse culture within the industry, at a time when Railtrack had not enough insights about the state of the rail network. Although empirically unjustified, safety improvement became the main issue, costs escalated and reliability and productivity experienced a huge fall. The current White Paper “The Future of Rail” is seen as partially misleading and not at all detailed. At present it is only clear that the proposals will result in further increase of political interference. Much will depend on the precise implementation of the proposed measures and therefore the future of British rail remains unclear

Regulating work and welfare of the future: Towards a new gender contract?

This paper starts off by briefly considering some of the problems of future studies; it discusses how the origins and principles of the systems of regulation and security have generated different employment systems in Europe. The concept of employment systems allows us to identify how the future of work may well be managed in different ways according to the capacity and constraints of national and European actors. The paper focuses on the characteristics and changes in European regulatory systems of labour and social welfare. Two key developments are identified in these areas. First there are trends to decentralise collective bargaining and to encourage a trade off between labour flexibility and employment security. Second, there have been trends towards a decentralisation and outsourcing of state monopolies and attempts to develop new forms of caring. The prospects these trends imply for regulating the work of the future are discussed in relation to the development of a new social and gender contract. --