Trade booms, trade busts and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs

Trade and Divergence in Education Systems

This paper presents a theory on the endogenous choice of a country's education policy and the two-way causal relationship between trade and education systems. The setting of a country's education system determines its talent distribution and comparative advantage in trade; the possibility of trade by raising the returns to the sector of comparative advantage in turn induces countries to further differentiate their education systems and reinforces the initial pattern of comparative advantage. Speci…cally, the Nash equilibrium choice of education systems by two countries interacting strategically are necessarily more divergent than their autarky choices,although the difference is still less than what is socially optimal for the world. We provide some preliminary empirical evidence on the relationship between education, talent distribution, and trade.Education System, Talent Distribution, Comparative Advantage, Trade Pattern

Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy

Substantial evidence suggests that countries with stronger trade linkages have more synchro- nized business cycles. The standard international business cycle framework cannot replicate this finding, uncovering the trade-comovement puzzle. We show that under certain macro-level conditions but irrespective of the micro-level assumptions concerning trade the puzzle arises because trade fails to substantially increase the correlation between each country's import penetration ratio and the trade partner's technology shock. Within a large class of trade models, there are three channels through which bilateral trade may increase business cycle synchronization. Specifically, increased bilateral trade may (i) raise the correlation between each country's tech- nology shocks, (ii) raise the correlation between each country's share of expenditure on domestic goods, and (iii) raise the response of the domestic import penetration ratio to foreign technology shocks. Empirical evidence strongly supports the first and second channels. We show that the trade-comovement puzzle can be resolved if productivity shocks are more correlated between country-pairs that trade more

Intra-industry trade and trade intensities: Evidence from New Zealand

This study analyses the development of intra-industry and inter industry trade between New Zealand, Australia, and the selected Asia-Pacific nations during the period 1990 to 2000. The study adapts mainly two approaches to examine these developments. First, an historical analysis of New Zealand trading patterns is presented. For this purpose, intra-industry trade development is examined. The Grubel-Lloyd and Aquino indices are used to calculate the intensity of intra- industry trade at the 3-digit SITC levels to determine the relative importance of intra-industry trade as opposed to inter-industry trade. IIT has been estimated across industries and for selected trading partners. A time series approach is used to estimate any trend in the ratio of intra industry trade to total trade in relation to Australia. Secondly, the paper examines the strength of trade relations between New Zealand and the other countries. For this purpose the intensity of trade index has been estimated for bilateral trade flows between these nations. These analyses are examined to consider how trade has changed in this period of trade liberalisation. The results show that intra-industry trade has increased between New Zealand and Australia. The results also suggest that bilateral trade flows between New Zealand, Australia and other countries has become more intense indicating trading relations are strengthening. In some cases bilateral trade flows have decreased. The results also suggest that the removal of trade barriers through bilateral and multilateral negotiations has positive impacts on intra-industry trade and the intensity of trade of these economies

International Cooperation on Trade and Labor Issues

The relationship between the labor market and international trade is a broad and complex subject that has been the focus of significant attention in recent years. Discussion and analysis in this area has covered a number of discrete issues, including the effect of shifting trade patterns on employment levels and earnings in domestic markets, the impact of wage levels and labor legislation on the location of production facilities, and the positive and negative aspects of the cross-border movement of workers, among others. The continuing importance of labor issues within the larger trade debate is highlighted by the inclusion of measures relating to labor standards and/or the cross-border movement of workers in recent bilateral and multilateral trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the U.S.–Oman Free Trade Agreement. This paper aims to provide background for future work on trade-related labor issues by describing how labor issues such as internationally recognized labor standards and the cross-border movement of workers have been addressed by international organizations, as well as in U.S. trade legislation and recent trade agreements

Trade costs, 1870–2000

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half? Was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade? To address this question, we derive a micro-founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods. Thus, we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs, transportation costs, and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede international trade but that are inherently difficult to observe. We use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913, its retreat from 1921 to 1939, and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000. We find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre–World War I trade boom and 33 percent of the post–World War II trade boom, while a precipitous rise in trade costs explains the entire interwar trade bust

Trade, Technology and Wage Inequality in the South African Manufacturing Sectors

This paper advances on previous work on the effects of trade and technical change on labour markets within the framework of Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory. First, we employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously used in this context, which separate Heckscher-Ohlin-based long run relationships from short run dynamics that are heterogeneous across sectors. Second, we provide evidence for an unskilled labor abundant developing country that allows comparison of the results against developed country evidence. Third, we consider the appropriateness of alternative approaches and examine endogeneity issues in the impact of technology and price changes on factor returns. For South African manufacturing we find that output prices increase most strongly in sectors that are labor intensive. Our results further suggest that trade-mandated earnings increases are positive for labor, and negative for capital. By contrast technology has mandated negative earnings increases for both factors. We also find that separation of different demand side factors collectively constituting globalization is useful in understanding the impact of trade, and taking account of endogeneity is important in isolating factor and sector bias of technological change.Trade, Total Factor Productivity, Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, Mandated Factor Earnings Changes, Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data, Pooled Mean Group Estimation.

A Gravity Model Approach of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreements on ASEAN’s Trade Flows: Trade Creation or Trade Diversion?

ASEAN has extensively cooperated with East Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and China (hereafter called Plus Three Countries); then consecutively formed AJCEP, AKFTA, and ACFTA. Currently, ASEAN+3 (ASEAN and Plus Three Countries) is proposed in order to extend the socio-economic cooperation, most of all trade. Nevertheless, trade does not necessarily improve the welfare of all parties as the consequences of trade-creation and trade-diversion effect. The aim of this research was to analyze: (1) whether trade ASEAN+3 free trade agreement improve or worsen trade of ASEAN; (2) whether the change occurs through trade-creation or trade-diversion channel. A gravity model approach using panel data is employed to analyze the impact of ASEAN+3 free trade agreements on ASEAN‘s trade flows during the years of 2000—2014. The results revealed that GDP, GDP per capita, distance, common language, and contiguity have a significant role in determining trade within ASEAN+3. Additionally, this study designated that there has been trade creation within ASEAN+3 subsequent to AJCEP, AKFTA, and ACFTA. In spite of vigorous result of creation effect, all the models are likely to failed in negating trade diversion. To sum up, the ensuing agreements of ASEAN+3 have been positively promoting trade in southeast and east Asia

Trade theory and trade facts

This paper quantitatively tests the “new trade theory” based on product differentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large effects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then “backcasting” to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.Trade ; Product differentiation

Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?

We provide an analysis of the 2008-2009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. First, we find that changes in firm-country-product exports and imports occurred mostly at the intensive margin: the number of firms, the average number of destination and origin markets per firm, and the average number of products per market changed only very little. Second, econometric analysis reveals some composition effects in the intensive margin fall along firm, product and country characteristics. The most important factor explaining changes in exports is the destination country's growth rate of GDP. Had growth rates in 2008{2009 been the same as in 2007{2008, Belgian exports would have fallen by about 57% less than what we observe. Trade in consumer durables and capital goods fell more severely than trade in other product categories, which explains another 22% of the observed fall. Financial variables and involvement in global value chains have some explanatory power on the exports and imports fall respectively, but appear to have affected domestic operations in equal proportion. More generally, exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios at the firm level did neither systematically decrease nor reveal strong firm- or sector-specific patterns. Overall, our results point to a demand-side explanation: the fall in trade was mostly driven by the fall in economic activity. It is not a trade crisis | just a trade collapse.trade crisis, trade collapse, margins of trade, firm-level analysis, Belgium.