Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated Assessment modeling communities recognize the importance of an accurate representation of land use and land-cover change to understand and quantify the interactions and feedbacks with the climate and socio-economic systems, respectively. To date, cooperation between these communities has been limited. Based on common interests, this work discusses research priorities in representing land use and land-cover change for improved collaboration across modelling, observing and measurement communities. Major research topics in land use and land-cover change are those that help us better understand (1) the interaction of land use and land cover with the climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks), (2) the provision of goods and ecosystem services by terrestrial (natural and anthropogenic) land-cover types (e.g. food production), (3) land use and management decisions and (4) opportunities and limitations for managing climate change (for both mitigation and adaptation strategies

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpretation of SA data, and an empirical validation of expert evaluations that can help to measure the consistency of the analysis. An application to a specific case study is provided, with reference to the European organic farming business

GIS and urban design

Although urban planning has used computer models and information systems sincethe 1950s and architectural practice has recently restructured to the use of computeraideddesign (CAD) and computer drafting software, urban design has hardly beentouched by the digital world. This is about to change as very fine scale spatial datarelevant to such design becomes routinely available, as 2dimensional GIS(geographic information systems) become linked to 3dimensional CAD packages,and as other kinds of photorealistic media are increasingly being fused with thesesoftware. In this chapter, we present the role of GIS in urban design, outlining whatcurrent desktop software is capable of and showing how various new techniques canbe developed which make such software highly suitable as basis for urban design.We first outline the nature of urban design and then present ideas about how varioussoftware might form a tool kit to aid its process. We then look in turn at: utilisingstandard mapping capabilities within GIS relevant to urban design; buildingfunctional extensions to GIS which measure local scale accessibility; providingsketch planning capability in GIS and linking 2-d to 3-d visualisations using low costnet-enabled CAD browsers. We finally conclude with some speculations on thefuture of GIS for urban design across networks whereby a wide range of participantsmight engage in the design process digitally but remotely

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c