Reconstructing the Chongbaxia Tsho glacial lake outburst flood in the Eastern Himalaya: Evolution, process and impacts

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Understanding GLOF evolution, and their impacts, plays a fundamental role in GLOF hazard assessment and risk management. Reconstructing historical GLOFs is an important exercise because detailed case studies of such glacial hazards are rare, which hinders the capacity of glacial hazard practitioners to learn from these events. In this study, we reconstruct a historical GLOF from moraine-dammed Chongbaxia Tsho (89.745°E, 28.211°N) in the Eastern Himalaya, which is a unique case study because the outburst flood cascaded into two further lakes downstream. We employ a combination of i) multi-source and multi-temporal satellite imagery, ii) field investigation (including an unmanned aerial vehicle survey), iii) numerical dam breach and hydrodynamic modelling and, iv) qualitative and quantitative cryospheric and meteorological analysis, to investigate the evolution of the GLOF hazard, simulate moraine dam failure and GLOF propagation, and explore the role that long- and short-term climate trends played in providing the conditioning factors for the outburst. Chongbaxia Tsho expanded rapidly between 1987 until 2001 in response to glacier recession most likely caused by a regional warming trend of +0.37 °C per decade. Based on satellite image analysis we refine the outburst date to be 6 August 2001, instead of 6 August 2000, as previously reported, and attribute an ice avalanche into the glacial lake originating from the receding parent glacier as the most likely trigger for moraine dam failure. Through DEM differencing and lake level decrease, we estimate that a total water volume of 27.1 ± 1.6 × 106 m3 was released from the lake during the event, and using dam breach modelling we estimate that the peak discharge at the breach was >6600 m3 s−1. The GLOF flowed through downstream Chongbamang Tsho and Chongbayong Tsho, both of which served to attenuate the GLOF and reduce downstream losses; the latter stored an estimated 96% of the flood volume. Precipitation totals in the weeks preceding the GLOF exceeded the historical mean by up to 40%, and may have contributed to instability of the parent glacier, and generation of an ice avalanche with enough impact energy to cause lake water to overtop the moraine dam and initiate breach development. A future GLOF from Chongbaxia Tsho cannot be ruled out, but more field data, including detailed lake bathymetry, and information pertaining to the sedimentological and geotechnical characteristics of the moraine dam, are required for a more robust parameterization of a predictive GLOF model and quantification of the hazard posed by a future GLOF

Using a new generation of remote sensing to monitor Peru’s mountain glaciers

Remote sensing technologies are integral to monitoring mountain glaciers in a warming world. Tropical glaciers, of which around 70% are located in Peru, are particularly at risk as a result of climate warming. Satellite missions and field-based platforms have transformed understanding of the processes driving mountain glacier dynamics and the associated emergence of hazards (e.g. avalanches, floods, landslides), yet are seldom specialised to overcome the unique challenges of acquiring data in mountainous environments. A ‘new generation’ of remote sensing, marked by open access to powerful cloud computing and large datasets, high resolution satellite missions, and low-cost science-grade field sensors, looks to revolutionise the way we monitor the mountain cryosphere. In this thesis, three novel remote sensing techniques and their applicability towards monitoring the glaciers of the Peruvian Cordillera Vilcanota are examined. Using novel processing chains and image archives generated by the ASTER satellite, the first mass balance estimate of the Cordillera Vilcanota is calculated (-0.48 ± 0.07 m w.e. yr-1) and ELA change of up to 32.8 m per decade in the neighbouring Cordillera Vilcabamba is quantified. The performance of new satellite altimetry missions, Sentinel-3 and ICESat-2, are assessed, with the tracking mode of Sentinel-3 being a key limitation of the potential for its use over mountain environments. Although currently limited in its ability to extract widespread mass balance measurements over mountain glaciers, other applications for ICESat-2 in long-term monitoring of mountain glaciers include quantifying surface elevation change, identifying large accumulation events, and monitoring lake bathymetry. Finally, a novel low-cost method of performing timelapse photogrammetry using Raspberry Pi camera sensors is created and compared to 3D models generated by a UAV. Mean difference between the Raspberry Pi and UAV sensors is 0.31 ± 0.74 m, giving promise to the use of these sensors for long-term monitoring of recession and short-term warning of hazards at glacier calving fronts. Together, this ‘new generation’ of remote sensing looks to provide new glaciological insights and opportunities for regular monitoring of data-scarce mountainous regions. The techniques discussed in this thesis could benefit communities and societal programmes in rapidly deglaciating environments, including across the Cordillera Vilcanota

Paleoenvironmental Evolution of Potter Peninsula during the Holocene, King George Island, South Shetland Islands

The first Holocene marine transgression reached the inner fiords of King George Island approximately at 9.5 ka BP according to Sugden and John (1973). This age marks today the minimum age of the end of the last glacial period obtained on land and the start of the Holocene in this Antarctic sector. Following the first Holocene marine transgression, Watcham et al. (2011) reconstructed a relative sea level curve for the South Shetland Islands with a relative sea level rise of 15.5 m amsl for Fildes Peninsula between 8 and 7 ka BP. The curve shows that a delay occurred in the isostatic uplift after 7.2 ka BP related to a glacier still-stand resulting in a relative sea level rise. This is followed by a drop of the relative sea level after 7 ka BP due to the rate of glacial unloading and isostatic rebound exceeding the rate of eustatic sea level rise. The aim of this presentation is to show new evidence, which will help to understand the postglacial paleoenvironmental changes on King George Island. Our chrono-stratigraphical and geomorphological studies in Potter Peninsula suggest, that the Holocene post-glacial marine transgression was not just initiated before 7.7 ka BP but also reached 14 m amsl, and was locally interrupted by a glacier advance after 7.3 ka BP. This glacier advance can be correlated to Watcham´s et al (2011) curve, showing a drop of relative sea level between 7.2 and 7 ka BP. In conclusion, we consider that a glacier readvance took place between 7.2 and 7 ka BP in the Southern sector of King George Island. Additionally our findings show that the age of 9.5 ka BP as a minimum age of the onset of the Holocene transgression in the South Shetland Islands has to be reconsidered. References Sugden, D. and John, B., 1973. The age of glacier fluctuations in the South Shetland Islands,Antarctica. In: van Zinderen Bakker, E.M. (Ed.), Palaeoecology of Africa, the Surrounding Islands, and Antarctica. A.A. Balkema, 139-159 p., Cape Town. Watcham, E. P., Bentley, M. J., Hodgson, D. A., Roberts, S. J., Fretwell, P. T., Lloyd, J. M., Larter, R. D., Whitehouse, P. L., Leng, M. J., Monien, P. and Moreton, S. G., 2011. A new Holocene relative sea level curve for the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica. Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 3152–3170

The Ventilation and Circulation of the Southern Indian Ocean on Glacial / Interglacial Timescales

With this project, we want to enhance our knowledge of the global carbon cycle on glacial/ interglacial time-scales. To achieve this objective, it is of crucial importance to understand the role of the Southern Ocean on the release and uptake of greenhouse gases. As the southern Indian Ocean is currently fundamentally underrepresented in paleoceanographic reconstructions, it is our aim to reconstruct the contribution of this ocean to the atmospheric pattern of CO2. Therefore, we plan to use a novel multiproxy-approach, combining stable (δ13C) and radiogenic (d14C) isotope reconstructions with analyses of B/Ca-derived carbonate ion concentrations on a sediment core depth transect of the Kerguelen Islands. These analyses will provide a detailed insight into the history of water mass ventilation in the Indian Ocean on glacial/interglacial timescales. Ultimately, we want to combine the findings of this project with other water mass ventilation studies (e.g. Skinner et al., 2010; Sarnthein et al., 2013; Ronge et al., under review) and Earth System Modeling. These findings, in combination with previous studies from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans will for the first time allow a comprehensive reconstruction of CO2-enriched deep-water during the last glacial, the ventilation throughout the deglaciation and the contribution to the atmospheric CO2-level

Planned Interdisciplinary-Geoscientific Process-Studies on a Typical East Antarctic Continental Margin Setting at the Ekström Ice Shelf (Dronning Maud Land): From Gondwana Decay to Recent Deglaciation

Recent findings of outcrops of the so-called "Explora Wedge" and overlying younger sediments below the Ekström Ice Shelf initiated discussion about discovering this area in more detail. The Ekström Ice Shelf is a characteristic ice shelf and one out of numerous small to medium scale ice shelves around East Antarctica. It is bordered by ice rises and ridges, has only a small catchment area and a slow flowing central ice stream. Nevertheless, this region is of critical importance to water-mass preconditioning in the Weddell Sea, and like other ice shelves in that area particularly susceptible to future environmental changes. We have learned about sub-ice-shelf melting and freezing processes as well as the formation of supercool water and ice platelets mostly through modelling. Observations from land-fast sea ice are still very rare. Ikaite and related inorganic carbonate precipitation, processes probably observed in the ANDRILL sediment cores, may be associated with freezing processes and brine formation in this type of environment. Hardly any measurements exist regarding oceanographic and glaciological seasonal cycles and associated processes below an ice shelf, close to its calving, or at the grounding zones. Observations and detailed spatial mapping of seafloor morphology and composition are difficult and can only be done with the aid of AUVs or ROVs diving below the ice shelf. "Deep SCINI", a ROV that can be lowered through an ice hole, discovered a school of fish hidden under 740 m of ice and 850 km away from the coast and light, living at the grounding zone of the Ross Ice Shelf (WISSARD project). It also discovered a community of sea anemones (Edwardsiella andrillae), a new species, which lives in high densities upside down on the underside of the ice shelf and is part of an unknown system of biogeochemical processes. These are two more examples for living at the edge on Planet Earth. Evidence of these biological, oceanographic and glaciological processes could have been archived in sedimentary deposits. With detailed seafloor mapping and high-resolution reflection seismic we hope to find postglacial and Holocene sediments. A sequence of more than 1000 m thick sediments has been detected lying on top of the "Explora Wedge" in an area between the ice shelf calving line and about 40 km inland below the Ekström Ice Shelf. Up to now, its age is relatively unknown but could range from Cretaceous to Pleistocene. Therefore, this area would be predestined for exploring East Antarctica\'s development from a greenhouse environment after the Gondwana breakup to a Cenozoic icehouse environment, thus enabling us to possibly reconstruct the history and variability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We will present various sites for drill holes and would like to raise awareness and interest within the community of polar researchers. Due to the proximity to the Neumayer III Station, the logistics of possible future investigations will be easier and will have less of an environmental impact than if started elsewhere in Antarctica

Comparison of sea-ice freeboard distributions from aircraft data and cryosat-2

The only remote sensing technique capable of obtain- ing sea-ice thickness on basin-scale are satellite altime- ter missions, such as the 2010 launched CryoSat-2. It is equipped with a Ku-Band radar altimeter, which mea- sures the height of the ice surface above the sea level. This method requires highly accurate range measure- ments. During the CryoSat Validation Experiment (Cry- oVEx) 2011 in the Lincoln Sea, Cryosat-2 underpasses were accomplished with two aircraft, which carried an airborne laser-scanner, a radar altimeter and an electro- magnetic induction device for direct sea-ice thickness re- trieval. Both aircraft flew in close formation at the same time of a CryoSat-2 overpass. This is a study about the comparison of the sea-ice freeboard and thickness dis- tribution of airborne validation and CryoSat-2 measure- ments within the multi-year sea-ice region of the Lincoln Sea in spring, with respect to the penetration of the Ku- Band signal into the snow