A scenario aggregation based approach for determining a robust airline fleet composition

Strategic airline fleet planning is one of the major issues addressed through newly initiated decision support systems, designed to assist airlines and aircraft manufacturers in assessing the benefits of the emerging concept of dynamic capacity allocation. We present background research connected with such a system, which aims to explicitly account for the stochastic nature of passenger demand in supporting decisions related to the fleet composition problem. We address this problem through a scenario aggregation based approach and present results on representative case studies based on realistic data. Our investigations establish clear benefits of a stochastic approach as compared with deterministic formulations, as well as its implementation feasibility using state-of-the-artoptimization software.Dynamic capacity allocation;Airline fleet composition;Stochastic programming;Scenario aggregation;Fleet assignment

A scenario aggregation based approach for determining a robust airline fleet composition

Strategic airline fleet planning is one of the major issues addressed through newly initiated decision support systems, designed to assist airlines and aircraft manufacturers in assessing the benefits of the emerging concept of dynamic capacity allocation. We present background research connected with such a system, which aims to explicitly account for the stochastic nature of passenger demand in supporting decisions related to the fleet composition problem. We address this problem through a scenario aggregation based approach and present results on representative case studies based on realistic data. Our investigations establish clear benefits of a stochastic approach as compared with deterministic formulations, as well as its implementation feasibility using state-of-the-art optimization software

Resource-Constrained Airline Ground Operations: Optimizing Schedule Recovery under Uncertainty

Die zentrale europäische Verkehrsflusssteuerung (englisch: ATFM) und Luftverkehrsgesellschaften (englisch: Airlines) verwenden unterschiedliche Paradigmen für die Priorisierung von Flügen. Während ATFM jeden Flug als individuelle Einheit betrachtet, um die Kapazitätsauslastung aller Sektoren zu steuern, bewerten Airlines jeden Flug als Teilabschnitt eines Flugzeugumlaufes, eines Crew-Einsatzplanes bzw. einer Passagierroute. Infolgedessen sind ATFM-Zeitfenster für Flüge in Kapazitätsengpässen oft schlecht auf die Ressourcenabhängigkeiten innerhalb eines Airline-Netzwerks abgestimmt, sodass die Luftfahrzeug-Bodenabfertigung – als Verbindungselement bzw. Bruchstelle zwischen einzelnen Flügen im Netzwerk – als Hauptverursacher primärer und reaktionärer Verspätungen in Europa gilt. Diese Dissertation schließt die Lücke zwischen beiden Paradigmen, indem sie ein integriertes Optimierungsmodell für die Flugplanwiederherstellung entwickelt. Das Modell ermöglicht Airlines die Priorisierung zwischen Flügen, die von einem ATFM-Kapazitätsengpass betroffen sind, und berücksichtigt dabei die begrenzte Verfügbarkeit von Abfertigungsressourcen am Flughafen. Weiterhin werden verschiedene Methoden untersucht, um die errechneten Flugprioritäten vertraulich innerhalb von kooperativen Lösungsverfahren mit externen Stakeholdern austauschen zu können. Das integrierte Optimierungsmodell ist eine Erweiterung des Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems und integriert das Bodenprozessmanagement von Luftfahrzeugen mit bestehenden Ansätzen für die Steuerung von Flugzeugumläufen, Crew-Einsatzplänen und Passagierrouten. Das Modell soll der Verkehrsleitzentrale einer Airline als taktische Entscheidungsunterstützung dienen und arbeitet dabei mit einer Vorlaufzeit von mehr als zwei Stunden bis zur nächsten planmäßigen Verkehrsspitze. Systemimmanente Unsicherheiten über Prozessabweichungen und mögliche zukünftige Störungen werden in der Optimierung in Form von stochastischen Prozesszeiten und mittels des neu-entwickelten Konzeptes stochastischer Verspätungskostenfunktionen berücksichtigt. Diese Funktionen schätzen die Kosten der Verspätungsausbreitung im Airline-Netzwerk flugspezifisch auf der Basis historischer Betriebsdaten ab, sodass knappe Abfertigungsressourcen am Drehkreuz der Airline den kritischsten Flugzeugumläufen zugeordnet werden können. Das Modell wird innerhalb einer Fallstudie angewendet, um die taktischen Kosten einer Airline in Folge von verschiedenen Flugplanstörungen zu minimieren. Die Analyseergebnisse zeigen, dass die optimale Lösung sehr sensitiv in Bezug auf die Art, den Umfang und die Intensität einer Störung reagiert und es folglich keine allgemeingültige optimale Flugplanwiederherstellung für verschiedene Störungen gibt. Umso dringender wird der Einsatz eines flexiblen und effizienten Optimierungsverfahrens empfohlen, welches die komplexen Ressourcenabhängigkeiten innerhalb eines Airline-Netzwerks berücksichtigt und kontextspezifische Lösungen generiert. Um die Effizienz eines solchen Optimierungsverfahrens zu bestimmen, sollte das damit gewonnene Steuerungspotenzial im Vergleich zu aktuell genutzten Verfahren über einen längeren Zeitraum untersucht werden. Aus den in dieser Dissertation analysierten Störungsszenarien kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass die flexible Standplatzvergabe, Passagier-Direkttransporte, beschleunigte Abfertigungsverfahren und die gezielte Verspätung von Abflügen sehr gute Steuerungsoptionen sind und während 95 Prozent der Saison Anwendung finden könnten, um geringe bis mittlere Verspätungen von Einzelflügen effizient aufzulösen. Bei Störungen, die zu hohen Verspätungen im gesamten Airline-Netzwerk führen, ist eine vollständige Integration aller in Betracht gezogenen Steuerungsoptionen erforderlich, um eine erhebliche Reduzierung der taktischen Kosten zu erreichen. Dabei ist insbesondere die Möglichkeit, Ankunfts- und Abflugzeitfenster zu tauschen, von hoher Bedeutung für eine Airline, um die ihr zugewiesenen ATFM-Verspätungen auf die Flugzeugumläufe zu verteilen, welche die geringsten Einschränkungen im weiteren Tagesverlauf aufweisen. Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten im nachgelagerten Airline-Netzwerk zeigt, dass eine Optimierung auf Basis deterministischer Verspätungskosten die taktischen Kosten für eine Airline überschätzen kann. Die optimale Flugplanwiederherstellung auf Basis stochastischer Verspätungskosten unterscheidet sich deutlich von der deterministischen Lösung und führt zu weniger Passagierumbuchungen am Drehkreuz. Darüber hinaus ist das vorgeschlagene Modell in der Lage, Flugprioritäten und Airline-interne Kostenwerte für ein zugewiesenes ATFM-Zeitfenster zu bestimmen. Die errechneten Flugprioritäten können dabei vertraulich in Form von optimalen Verspätungszeitfenstern pro Flug an das ATFM übermittelt werden, während die Definition von internen Kostenwerten für ATFM-Zeitfenster die Entwicklung von künftigen Handelsmechanismen zwischen Airlines unterstützen kann.:1 Introduction 2 Status Quo on Airline Operations Management 3 Schedule Recovery Optimization Approach with Constrained Resources 4 Implementation and Application 5 Case Study Analysis 6 ConclusionsAir Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) and airlines use different paradigms for the prioritisation of flights. While ATFM regards each flight as individual entity when it controls sector capacity utilization, airlines evaluate each flight as part of an aircraft rotation, crew pairing and passenger itinerary. As a result, ATFM slot regulations during capacity constraints are poorly coordinated with the resource interdependencies within an airline network, such that the aircraft turnaround -- as the connecting element or breaking point between individual flights in an airline schedule -- is the major contributor to primary and reactionary delays in Europe. This dissertation bridges the gap between both paradigms by developing an integrated schedule recovery model that enables airlines to define their optimal flight priorities for schedule disturbances arising from ATFM capacity constraints. These priorities consider constrained airport resources and different methods are studied how to communicate them confidentially to external stakeholders for the usage in collaborative solutions, such as the assignment of reserve resources or ATFM slot swapping. The integrated schedule recovery model is an extension of the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem and integrates aircraft turnaround operations with existing approaches for aircraft, crew and passenger recovery. The model is supposed to provide tactical decision support for airline operations controllers at look-ahead times of more than two hours prior to a scheduled hub bank. System-inherent uncertainties about process deviations and potential future disruptions are incorporated into the optimization via stochastic turnaround process times and the novel concept of stochastic delay cost functions. These functions estimate the costs of delay propagation and derive flight-specific downstream recovery capacities from historical operations data, such that scarce resources at the hub airport can be allocated to the most critical turnarounds. The model is applied to the case study of a network carrier that aims at minimizing its tactical costs from several disturbance scenarios. The case study analysis reveals that optimal recovery solutions are very sensitive to the type, scope and intensity of a disturbance, such that there is neither a general optimal solution for different types of disturbance nor for disturbances of the same kind. Thus, airlines require a flexible and efficient optimization method, which considers the complex interdependencies among their constrained resources and generates context-specific solutions. To determine the efficiency of such an optimization method, its achieved network resilience should be studied in comparison to current procedures over longer periods of operation. For the sample of analysed scenarios in this dissertation, it can be concluded that stand reallocation, ramp direct services, quick-turnaround procedures and flight retiming are very efficient recovery options when only a few flights obtain low and medium delays, i.e., 95% of the season. For disturbances which induce high delay into the entire airline network, a full integration of all considered recovery options is required to achieve a substantial reduction of tactical costs. Thereby, especially arrival and departure slot swapping are valuable options for the airline to redistribute its assigned ATFM delays onto those aircraft that have the least critical constraints in their downstream rotations. The consideration of uncertainties in the downstream airline network reveals that an optimization based on deterministic delay costs may overestimate the tactical costs for the airline. Optimal recovery solutions based on stochastic delay costs differ significantly from the deterministic approach and are observed to result in less passenger rebooking at the hub airport. Furthermore, the proposed schedule recovery model is able to define flight priorities and internal slot values for the airline. Results show that the priorities can be communicated confidentially to ATFM by using the concept of 'Flight Delay Margins', while slot values may support future inter-airline slot trading mechanisms.:1 Introduction 2 Status Quo on Airline Operations Management 3 Schedule Recovery Optimization Approach with Constrained Resources 4 Implementation and Application 5 Case Study Analysis 6 Conclusion

Solving a robust airline crew pairing problem with column generation

In this study, we solve a robust version of the airline crew pairing problem. Our concept of robustness was partially shaped during our discussions with small local airlines in Turkey which may have to add a set of extra flights into their schedule at short notice during operation. Thus, robustness in this case is related to the ability of accommodating these extra flights at the time of operation by disrupting the original plans as minimally as possible. We focus on the crew pairing aspect of robustness and prescribe that the planned crew pairings incorporate a number of predefined recovery solutions for each potential extra flight. These solutions are implemented only if necessary for recovery purposes and involve either inserting an extra flight into an existing pairing or partially swapping the flights in two existing pairings in order to cover an extra flight. The resulting mathematical programming model follows the conventional set covering formulation of the airline crew pairing problem typically solved by column generation with an additional complication. The model includes constraints that depend on the columns due to the robustness consideration and grows not only column-wise but also row-wise as new columns are generated. To solve this dicult model, we propose a row and column generation approach. This approach requires a set of modifications to the multi-label shortest path problem for pricing out new columns (pairings) and various mechanisms to handle the simultaneous increase in the number of rows and columns in the restricted master problem during column generation. We conduct computational experiments on a set of real instances compiled from a local airline in Turkey

강화학습을 이용한 공항 임시폐쇄 상황에서의 항공 일정계획 복원

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2021. 2. 문일경.An airline scheduler plans flight schedules with efficient resource utilization. However, unpredictable events, such as the temporary closure of an airport, disrupt planned flight schedules. Therefore, recovering disrupted flight schedules is essential for airlines. We propose Q-learning and Double Q-learning algorithms using reinforcement learning approach for the aircraft recovery problem (ARP) in cases of temporary closures of airports. We use two recovery options: delaying departures of flights and swapping aircraft. We present an artificial environment of daily flight schedules and the Markov decision process (MDP) for the ARP. We evaluate the proposed approach on a set of experiments carried out on a real-world case of a Korean domestic airline. Computational experiments show that reinforcement learning algorithms recover disrupted flight schedules effectively, and that our approaches flexibly adapt to various objectives and realistic conditions.항공사는 보유하고 있는 자원을 최대한 효율적으로 사용하여 항공 일정계획을 수립하기 위해 비용과 시간을 많이 소모하게 된다. 하지만 공항 임시폐쇄와 같은 긴급 상황이 발생하면 항공편의 비정상 운항이 발생하게 된다. 따라서 이러한 상황이 발생하였을 때, 피해를 최대한 줄이기 위해 항공 일정계획을 복원하게 된다. 본 연구는 강화학습을 이용하여 공항 임시폐쇄 상황에서 항공 일정계획 복원 문제를 푼다. 본 연구에서는 항공기 복원 방법으로 항공편 지연과 항공기 교체의 두 가지 방법을 채택하였으며, 항공 일정계획 복원 문제에 강화학습을 적용하기 위해서 마르코프 결정 과정과 강화학습 환경을 구축하였다. 본 실험을 위해 대한민국 항공사의 실제 국내선 항공 일정계획을 사용하였다. 강화학습 알고리즘을 사용하여 기존의 연구에 비해 항공 일정계획을 효율적으로 복원하였으며, 여러 현실적인 조건과 다양한 목적함수에 유연하게 적용하였다.Abstract i Contents iv List of Tables v List of Figures vi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review 7 Chapter 3 Problem statement 11 3.1 Characteristics of aircraft, flights, and flight schedule requirements 11 3.2 Definitions of disruptions and recovery options and objectives of the problem 13 3.3 Assumptions 16 3.4 Mathematical formulations 19 Chapter 4 Reinforcement learning for aircraft recovery 24 4.1 Principles of reinforcement learning 24 4.2 Environment 27 4.3 Markov decision process 29 Chapter 5 Reinforcement learning algorithms 33 5.1 Q-learning algorithm 33 5.2 Overestimation bias and Double Q-learning algorithm 36 Chapter 6 Computational experiments 38 6.1 Comparison between reinforcement learning and existing algorithms 39 6.2 Performance of the TLN varying the size of delay arcs 46 6.3 Aircraft recovery for a complex real-world case: a Korean domestic airline 48 6.4 Validation for different objectives 54 6.5 Managerial insights 57 Chapter 7 Conclusions 59 Bibliography 61 국문초록 69Maste