Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence

I assess the role of wealth and systemic risk in explaining future asset returns. I show that the residuals of the trend relationship among asset wealth and human wealth predict both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for a set of industrialized countries, I find that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher risk premium for stocks. As for government bond returns: (i) when they are seen as a component of asset wealth, investors react in the same manner; (ii) if, however, investors perceive the increase in government bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then investors interpret the fall in the wealth-to-income ratio as a fall in future bond premia. Finally, I show that the occurrence of crises episodes (in particular, systemic crises) amplifies the transmission of housing market shocks to financial markets and the banking sector.stock returns; government bond yields; systemic crises.

Collateralizable wealth, asset returns, and systemic risk : international evidence

I assess the role of wealth and systemic risk in explaining future asset returns. I show that the residuals of the trend relationship among asset wealth and human wealth predict both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for a set of industrialized countries, I find that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher risk premium for stocks. As for government bond returns: (i) when they are seen as a component of asset wealth, investors react in the same manner; (ii) if, however, investors perceive the increase in government bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then investors interpret the fall in the wealth-to-income ratio as a fall in future bond premia. Finally, I show that the occurrence of crises episodes (in particular, systemic crises) amplifies the transmission of housing market shocks to financial markets and the banking sector.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010)Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER

Taking the heterogeneity of citizens into account: flood risk communication in coastal cities – a case study of Bremen

The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens

mFish Alpha Pilot: Building a Roadmap for Effective Mobile Technology to Sustain Fisheries and Improve Fisher Livelihoods.

In June 2014 at the Our Ocean Conference in Washington, DC, United States Secretary of State John Kerry announced the ambitious goal of ending overfishing by 2020. To support that goal, the Secretary's Office of Global Partnerships launched mFish, a public-private partnership to harness the power of mobile technology to improve fisher livelihoods and increase the sustainability of fisheries around the world. The US Department of State provided a grant to 50in10 to create a pilot of mFish that would allow for the identification of behaviors and incentives that might drive more fishers to adopt novel technology. In May 2015 50in10 and Future of Fish designed a pilot to evaluate how to improve adoption of a new mobile technology platform aimed at improving fisheries data capture and fisher livelihoods. Full report

Wealth, Labour Income, Stock Returns and Government Bond Yields, and Financial Stress in the Euro Area

I show that when the ratio of asset wealth to human wealth falls, investors become more exposed to idiosyncratic shocks and demand higher stock and government bond risk premia. I find that the residuals from the cointegrating vector among asset wealth and labour income, wy, predict both future stock and bond returns in the Euro Area. Consequently, it can be used to track time-variation in risk premium. The results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and vis-a-vis other benchmark models. Finally, I show that, conditioning the predictive ability of wy on the financial stress conditions allows one to track better future time-variation in risk premium. Moreover, when financial stress increases, investors perceive a larger risk for both stocks and government bonds.wealth, income, stock returns, government bond yields

Software Usability

This volume delivers a collection of high-quality contributions to help broaden developers’ and non-developers’ minds alike when it comes to considering software usability. It presents novel research and experiences and disseminates new ideas accessible to people who might not be software makers but who are undoubtedly software users

Threats to soil quality in Denmark - A review of existing knowledge in the context of the EU Soil Thematic Strategy

The EU Commission is preparing a proposal for a Soil Framework Directive with the purpose of protecting the soil resources in Europe. The proposal identifies six major threats to the sustained quality of soils in Europe. This report addresses the threats that are considered most important under the prevailing soil and climatic conditions in Denmark: compaction, soil organic matter decline, and erosion by water and tillage. For each of these threats, the relevance and damage to soil functions as well as the geographic distribution in Denmark are outlined. We suggest a procedure for identifying areas at risk. This exercise involves an explicit identification of: i) the disturbing agent (climate / management) exerting the pressures on soil, and ii) the vulnerability of the soil to those stresses. Risk reduction targets, measures required to reach these targets, and the knowledge gaps and research needs to effectively cope with each threat are discussed. Our evaluation of the threats is based on soil resilience to the imposed stresses. Subsoil compaction is considered a severe threat to Danish soils due to frequent traffic with heavy machinery in modern agriculture and forestry. The soil content of organic matter is critically low for a range of Danish soils, which should be counteracted by appropriate management options. Soil erosion by tillage, and to a lesser degree by water, adversely affects soil quality on much of the farmland because degradation rates are much higher than generation of soil

Digital Ecosystems: Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures

We view Digital Ecosystems to be the digital counterparts of biological ecosystems. Here, we are concerned with the creation of these Digital Ecosystems, exploiting the self-organising properties of biological ecosystems to evolve high-level software applications. Therefore, we created the Digital Ecosystem, a novel optimisation technique inspired by biological ecosystems, where the optimisation works at two levels: a first optimisation, migration of agents which are distributed in a decentralised peer-to-peer network, operating continuously in time; this process feeds a second optimisation based on evolutionary computing that operates locally on single peers and is aimed at finding solutions to satisfy locally relevant constraints. The Digital Ecosystem was then measured experimentally through simulations, with measures originating from theoretical ecology, evaluating its likeness to biological ecosystems. This included its responsiveness to requests for applications from the user base, as a measure of the ecological succession (ecosystem maturity). Overall, we have advanced the understanding of Digital Ecosystems, creating Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures where the word ecosystem is more than just a metaphor.Comment: 39 pages, 26 figures, journa