Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Data-driven models for monthly streamflow time series prediction

Author name used in this publication: K.W. Chau2010-2011 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalAccepted ManuscriptPublishe

Support vector machine in chaotic hydrological time series forecasting

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Application of Wavelet Decomposition and Phase Space Reconstruction in Urban Water Consumption Forecasting: Chaotic Approach (Case Study)

The forecasting of future value of water consumption in an urban area is highly complex and nonlinear. It often exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. It is a crucial factor for long-term sustainable management and improvement of the operation of urban water allocation system. This chapter will study the application of two pre-processing phase space reconstruction (PSR) and wavelet decomposition transform (WDT) methods to investigate the behavior of time series to forecast short-term water demand value of Kelowna City (BC, Canada). The research proposes two pre-process technique to improve the accuracy of the models. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), gene expression programming (GEP) and multilinear regression (MLR) methods are the tools that considered for forecasting the demand values. Evaluation of the tools is based on two steps with and without applying the pre-processing methods. Moreover, autocorrelation function (ACF) is used to calculate the lag time. Correlation dimension is used to study the chaotic behavior of the dataset. The models’ relative performance is compared using three different fitness indexes; coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed how pre-processing combination of WDT and PSR improved the performance of the models in forecasting short-term demand values

A Conjunction Method of Wavelet Transform-Particle Swarm Optimization-Support Vector Machine for Streamflow Forecasting

Streamflow forecasting has an important role in water resource management and reservoir operation. Support vector machine (SVM) is an appropriate and suitable method for streamflow prediction due to its best versatility, robustness, and effectiveness. In this study, a wavelet transform particle swarm optimization support vector machine (WT-PSO-SVM) model is proposed and applied for streamflow time series prediction. Firstly, the streamflow time series were decomposed into various details (Ds) and an approximation (A3) at three resolution levels (21-22-23) using Daubechies (db3) discrete wavelet. Correlation coefficients between each D subtime series and original monthly streamflow time series are calculated. Ds components with high correlation coefficients (D3) are added to the approximation (A3) as the input values of the SVM model. Secondly, the PSO is employed to select the optimal parameters, C, ε, and σ, of the SVM model. Finally, the WT-PSO-SVM models are trained and tested by the monthly streamflow time series of Tangnaihai Station located in Yellow River upper stream from January 1956 to December 2008. The test results indicate that the WT-PSO-SVM approach provide a superior alternative to the single SVM model for forecasting monthly streamflow in situations without formulating models for internal structure of the watershed

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Advances in Modeling and Management of Urban Water Networks

The Special Issue on Advances in Modeling and Management of Urban Water Networks (UWNs) explores four important topics of research in the context of UWNs: asset management, modeling of demand and hydraulics, energy recovery, and pipe burst identification and leakage reduction. In the first topic, the multi-objective optimization of interventions on the network is presented to find trade-off solutions between costs and efficiency. In the second topic, methodologies are presented to simulate and predict demand and to simulate network behavior in emergency scenarios. In the third topic, a methodology is presented for the multi-objective optimization of pump-as-turbine (PAT) installation sites in transmission mains. In the fourth topic, methodologies for pipe burst identification and leakage reduction are presented. As for the urban drainage systems (UDSs), the two explored topics are asset management, with a system upgrade to reduce flooding, and modeling of flow and water quality, with analyses on the transition from surface to pressurized flow, impact of water use reduction on the operation of UDSs, and sediment transport in pressurized pipes. The Special Issue also includes one paper dealing with the hydraulic modeling of an urban river with a complex cross-section