Managing uncertainty:financial, actuarial and statistical modelling.

present value; Value; Actuarial;

Quantum Mechanics Unscrambled

Is quantum mechanics about 'states'? Or is it basically another kind of probability theory? It is argued that the elementary formalism of quantum mechanics operates as a well-justified alternative to 'classical' instantiations of a probability calculus. Its providing a general framework for prediction accounts for its distinctive traits, which one should be careful not to mistake for reflections of any strange ontology. The suggestion is also made that quantum theory unwittingly emerged, in Schroedinger's formulation, as a 'lossy' by-product of a quantum-mechanical variant of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. As it turns out, the effectiveness of quantum theory qua predictive algorithm makes up for the computational impracticability of that master equation.Comment: 25 pages, no figures, final versio

On the Nature and Causes of the Collapse of the Wealth of Nations, 2007-2008: The End of a Façade Called Globalization

In this working paper, Erinç Yeldan investigates the 2007-2008 financial crisis, hailed as the most devastating (and complex) crisis of capitalism since the great depression of 1929. He suggests that the 2007-2008 crisis was not the end result of a series of technical errors or ad hoc developments that occurred on their own, but was instead the result of the systemic imbalances of capitalism over the last three decades. In order to evaluate the conditions of the global crisis more clearly, Yeldan considers it critical that its underlying structural causes are understood. The paper reflects the Marxian literature on crises, prominently that of Rosa Luxemburg, pointing out to the necessity of a ‘corrective war’ in order to break with old institutions, old technologies, and old methods of accumulation.Crises of capitalism; Bretton Woods system, golden age of capital; financialization; corrective war

Neoclassical Growth Theory and Heterodox Growth Theory: Opportunities For and Obstacles To Greater Engagement

This paper explores the possibilities for and likely impediments to greater engagement between neoclassical and heterodox growth theorists. Simple structural models are used to identify the essential “mechanics” of the growth process in both the neoclassical and heterodox traditions, and these are shown to point to important areas of theoretical overlap and even observational equivalence. It is argued, however, that the resultant opportunities for greater engagement between growth theorists are tempered by a number of obstacles, that are methodological, rhetorical and sociological in nature.Neoclassical growth theory, heterodox growth theory, endogenous growth

Interior- and Surface-Bound Excess Electron States in Large Water Cluster Anions

We present the results of mixed quantum/classical simulations on relaxed thermal nanoscale water cluster anions,(H_2O)^-_n, with n=200, 500, 1000 and 8000. By using initial equilibration with constraints, we investigate stable/metastable negatively charged water clusters with both surface-bound and interior-bound excess electron states. Characterization of these states is performed in terms of geometrical parameters, energetics, and optical absorption spectroscopy of the clusters. The calculations provide data characterizing these states in the gap between previously published calculations, and experiments, on smaller clusters and the limiting cases of either an excess electron in bulk water, or an excess electron at an infinite water/air interface. The present results are in general agreement with previous simulations and provide a consistent picture of the evolution of the physical properties of water cluster anions with size over the entire size range, including results for vertical detachment energies and absorption spectra that would signify their presence. In particular, the difference in size dependence between surface-bound and interior-bound state absorption spectra is dramatic, while for detachment energies the dependence is qualitatively the same

Formative Measurement Models in Covariance Structure Analysis: Specification and Identification

Many researchers seem to be unsure about how to specify formative measurement models in software programs like LISREL or AMOS and to establish identification of the corresponding structural equation model. In order to make identification easier, a new, mainly graphically oriented approach is presented for a specific class of recursive models with formative indicators. Using this procedure it is shown that some models have erroneously been considered underidentified. Furthermore, it is shown that specifying formative indicators as exogenous variables rises serious conceptual and substantial issues in the case that the formative construct is truly endogenous (i. e. influenced by more remote causes). An empirical study on the effects and causes of brand competence illustrates this point.Formative Indicators; Latent Variables; Covariance Structure Analysis; Identification