Striking the Right Balance with Uncertainty

Learning unbiased models on imbalanced datasets is a significant challenge. Rare classes tend to get a concentrated representation in the classification space which hampers the generalization of learned boundaries to new test examples. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Bayesian uncertainty estimates directly correlate with the rarity of classes and the difficulty level of individual samples. Subsequently, we present a novel framework for uncertainty based class imbalance learning that follows two key insights: First, classification boundaries should be extended further away from a more uncertain (rare) class to avoid overfitting and enhance its generalization. Second, each sample should be modeled as a multi-variate Gaussian distribution with a mean vector and a covariance matrix defined by the sample's uncertainty. The learned boundaries should respect not only the individual samples but also their distribution in the feature space. Our proposed approach efficiently utilizes sample and class uncertainty information to learn robust features and more generalizable classifiers. We systematically study the class imbalance problem and derive a novel loss formulation for max-margin learning based on Bayesian uncertainty measure. The proposed method shows significant performance improvements on six benchmark datasets for face verification, attribute prediction, digit/object classification and skin lesion detection.Comment: CVPR 201

Decision superiority: putting the emphasis back on the warfighter

Military operations have all the trademarks of agile decision making due to the complexity, uncertainty, time constraints, high risk and ill-defined goals of the mission environment. Any discussion of the naval command and control environment must address the relationship between the decision maker and the technological systems with which he operates. The U.S. Navy tends to address issues of decision supeiority with improved technology, sometmes disregarding what the human operator brings to the picture. We argue that this approach provides limited short-term gains in terms of human performance. Addressing the root cause of decision making problems by realigning professional training, selection and experience with the prerequisite analytical, intuitive, creative and affective skills is a superior approach. A decision maker's skill of striking a balance among these abilities, finding the right synthesis for the right situation, adapting to the situation, and moving along the continnum of performance, is what is needed to improve decision making in the maritime environment - not more C2 displays. Through the synthesis and application of the fields of expertise developoment and decision making, a framework of command tactical performance or "artful competence" is presented that has direct impllications for improving decision superiority

Doing the Public a Disservice: Behavioral Economics and Maintaining the Status Quo

When deciding whether to grant a preliminary injunction or a stay pending appeal, courts consider, among other factors, whether granting the preliminary injunction or stay would disserve the public interest. In the context of individual-rights cases, courts often experience pressure to remedy the alleged constitutional harms immediately. However, behavioral-economic concepts demonstrate that such quick action can negatively affect society as a whole. Specifically, granting a right and then taking it away, as happens when a lower court grants a right and is reversed on appeal, results in a net loss to society. Using the recent same-sex marriage litigation, this analysis demonstrates that to avoid disserving the public interest, courts should consider the behavioral-economic effects of loss aversion and the endowment effect within the public-interest factor of the tests for preliminary relief and should attempt to maintain the status quo until the decisions are final

Neurons and symbols: a manifesto

We discuss the purpose of neural-symbolic integration including its principles, mechanisms and applications. We outline a cognitive computational model for neural-symbolic integration, position the model in the broader context of multi-agent systems, machine learning and automated reasoning, and list some of the challenges for the area of neural-symbolic computation to achieve the promise of effective integration of robust learning and expressive reasoning under uncertainty

A primer on the subprime crisis.

The catalyst of the current financial turmoil has been the losses on the subprime mortgage market. However, the low quality of these partly collateralised housing loans was known for a while and the default on subprime mortgages largely expected. Therefore, how to account for the fact that an expected shock on a small segment of the US mortgage market turned into a major financial crisis, causing the near-collapse of the Commercial Paper and of the interbank lending markets, that is to say of two of the most liquid financial markets? Banks have transferred risks to special entities, the so-called “conduits”, SIV (Special Investment Vehicles) and SPV (Special Purpose Vehicles). Such a practice gave the false impression that credit risk was transferred from banks outside the financial system. This was indeed not the case. The funding needs associated in particular with backup lines of credit for off-balance sheet vehicles generated pressures on the the interbank markets and led central banks to massively intervene. The roots of the current turmoil are therefore of a deeper and structural nature. For that reason, it is necessary to assess, from a longer term perspective, what are the main consequences of the recent structural changes on financial markets in order to have a good grasp on the current financial market dynamics and clarify what is meant nowadays by liquidity.

Observation of the Production of Jets of Particles at High Transverse Momentum and Comparison with Inclusive Single-Particle Reactions

Data are presented on production by 200-GeV/c hadrons incident on beryllium of both single particles and jets (groups of particles) with high p_T (transverse momentum). The experiment was performed in a wide-aperture multiparticle spectrometer at Fermilab. The jet and single-particle cross sections have a similar shape from p_T=3 to 5 GeV/c but the jet cross section is over two orders of magnitude larger. The distributions of charged-particle momenta show striking similarities to those observed in lepton-induced processes

"Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk"

This paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, using forecasts of the U.S. population by way of illustration. Next, the paper discusses how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as social security. Finally, the paper shows how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk, and discusses the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives.

Striking a Balance Between Physical and Digital Resources

In various configurations—be they academic, archival, county, juvenile, monastic, national, personal, public, reference, or research, the library has been a fixture in human affairs for a long time. Digital — meaning, content or communication that is delivered through the internet, is 20 years old (but younger in parts). Basically, both approaches to organizing serve to structure information for access. However, digital is multiplying very fast and libraries all-round contemplate an existential crisis; the more hopeful librarians fret about physical and digital space. Yet, the crux of the matter is not about physical vs. digital: without doubt, the digital space of content or communication transmogrifies all walks of life and cannot be wished away; but, the physical space of libraries is time-tested, extremely valuable, and can surely offer more than currently meets the eye. Except for entirely virtual libraries, the symbiotic relationship between the physical and the digital is innately powerful: for superior outcomes, it must be recognized, nurtured, and leveraged; striking a balance between physical and digital resources can be accomplished. This paper examines the subject of delivering digital from macro, meso, and micro perspectives: it looks into complexity theory, digital strategy, and digitization

The Impacts of the Chinese Anti-Monopoly Law on IP Commercialization in China & General Strategies for Technology-Driven Companies and Future Regulators

After thirteen years of discussion and three revisions, China\u27s Anti-Monopoly Law (AML) was promulgated on August 30, 2007 and has come into effect on August 1, 2008. It is the first anti-monopoly law in China and has been viewed as an economic constitution and a milestone of the country’s efforts in promoting a fair competition market and cracking down on monopoly activities. However, the wording of some provisions of the AML, including the sections dealing with Intellectual Property (IP) protection, is not very clear. And juridical interpretations and more specific implementing regulations on the AML have not yet appeared. This has led to a lot of uncertainty for the operations of foreign enterprises, particularly IP related enterprises in China. This iBrief will provide an overview of possible impacts of the AML on the IP protection and commercialization in China. First, it will provide a brief overview of the AML, including both major compliments and criticism. Second, it will examine both opportunities and potential legal risks of foreign IP holders and investors when operating in China, particularly focusing on the impacts of Article 55, the IP-related provision. Thirdly, it will provide some practical suggestions and strategies for foreign IP holders and technology-driven companies to operate in China, such as some useful defenses for potential IP lawsuits. Finally, it will provide some suggestions for future interpretation and implementation of Article 55 in the AML by drawing on lessons from the experiences of the United States and the European Union