Pemilihan Fitur Untuk Klasifikasi Loyalitas Pelanggan Terhadap Merek Produkfast Moving Consumer Goods (Studi Kasus: Mie Instan)

Pemilihan fitur merupakan salah satu bagian penting dan teknik yang sering digunakan dalam praproses penggalian data yang membawa efek langsung untuk mempercepat algoritma penggalian data dan meningkatkan kinerja pertambangan seperti akurasi prediksi dan hasil yang komprehensif. Penelitian ini membahas mengenai pemilihan subset fitur dalam klasifikasi loyalitas pelanggan terhadap merek bagi pengguna fast moving consumer goods(dalam penelitian ini mengambil studi kasus pada salah satu produknya yaitu mie instan) dan melakukan analisis terhadap fitur-fitur yang mempengaruhi performa klasifikasi pohon keputusan. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini merupakan hasil penyebaran kuisoner kepada para pelanggan mie instan di Propinsi Lampung. Data yang diperoleh memiliki fitur yang bersifat heterogen, untuk itu dilakukan pengubahan fitur menjadi fitur homogen. Dalam penelitian ini, mengkombinasikan metode UFT (unsupervised feature transformation) dan metode DMI (dynamic mutual information) untuk seleksi fitur. Metode UFT digunakan untuk transformasi fitur non-numerik menjadi fitur numerik, sehingga fitur yang bersifat heterogen menjadi fitur homogen. Metode DMI digunakan untuk pemilihan fitur. Hasil transformasi fitur diklasifikasikan menggunakan algoritmapohon keputusan. Hasil klasifikasi digunakan untukmelakukan perbandingan performa antara dataset sebelum pemilihan fitur, setelah dilakukanpemilihan fitur menggunakan metode DMI, p-Value dan perkiraan peneliti. Dari hasil pengujian terhadap model prediksi klasifikasi diperoleh fiturfitur yang mempengaruhi performa klasifikasi pohon keputusanloyalitas pelanggan. Peningkatan performa tersebut dapat dilihat pada pengimplementasian metode pemilihan fitur DMIdengan jumlah fitur sebanyak lima. Nilai akurasi, presisi, recall dan f-measure mengalami peningkatan bila dibandingkan dengan penggunaan seluruh fitur (sebelum dilakukan pemilihan fitur), metode pemilihan fitur p-value dan hasil perkiraan, masing-masing nilai tersebut secara berturutturut adalah sebesar 76.68%, 74.4%, 76.7% dan 73.5%.Fitur-fitur yang berpengaruh tersebut antara lain jumlah pengeluaran, rata-rata konsumsi, usia, alamat dan alasan berpindah merek. =========================================================== Feature selection is one of the important parts and techniques used in data mining preprocess to bring immediate effect in accelerate the data mining algorithms and improve the performance of mining such as the prediction accuracy and comprehensive results. This study discusses the subset features selection in the classification of customer loyalty to the brand for the fast moving consumer goods (this study took a case study on one of its products, i.e instant noodles) and an analysis of the features that affect the performance classification of decision tree. The used data in this study is the result of spread questionnaires to customers instant noodles in Lampung Province. The obtained data has a heterogeneous features, it is neededto carried out the transformation of features into a homogeneous features. In this study, we combine UFT (unsupervised feature transformation) and DMI (dynamic mutual information)methods for features selection. UFT methods used for transformation of non-numerical features into a numerical features, so heterogeneous features became homogeneous features. DMI methods used for feature selection.Feature transformation result is classified using decision trees algorithm. The results of classification is used to performance comparisons between the datasets before the feature selection, after the feature selection using DMI, p-Value and researchers estimate. The test results of the predictive models of classification obtained the features that affect the decision tree algorithm performance of customer loyalty. The performance enhancement can be seen in the implementation of the DMI feature selection method with a number of features as many as five features. Value of accuracy, precision, recall and F-measure increased when compared to the use of all features (prior to the selection of features), methods of feature selection p-value and methods of researcher's estimate, respectively of values is 76.68%, 74.4 %, 76.7% and 73.5%. The features that affect the performance of classification, ie expenditures, average of consumption, age of costumer, address and the reason for switching brands

Modelling partial customer churn in the Portuguese fixed telecommunications industry by using survival models

Considering that profits from customer relationships are the lifeblood of firms (Grant and Schlesinger, 1995), an improvement on the customer management is essential to ensure the competitivity and success of firms. For the last decade, Portuguese customers of fixed telecommunications industry have easily switched the service provider, which has been very damaging for the business performance and, therefore, for the economy. The main objective of this study is to analyse the partial churn of residential customers in the fixed-telecommunications industry (fixed-telephone and ADSL), by using survival models. Additionally, we intend to test the assumption of constant customer retention rate over time and across customers. Lastly, the effect of satisfaction on partial customer churn is analysed. The models are developed by using large-scale data from an internal database of a Portuguese fixed telecommunications company. The models are estimated with a large number of covariates, which includes customer’s basic information, demographics, churn flag, customer historical information about usage, billing, subscription, credit, and other. Our results show that the variables that influence the partial customer churn are the service usage, mean overall revenues, current debts, the number of overdue bills, payment method, equipment renting, the existence of flat plans and the province of the customer. Portability also affects the probability of churn in fixed-telephone contracts. The results also suggest that the customer retention rate is neither constant over time nor across customers, for both types of contracts. Lastly, it seems that satisfaction does not influence the cancellation of both types of contracts.Considerando que os lucros gerados pelos clientes são vitais para as empresas (Grant e Schlesinger, 1995), uma melhoria na gestão do cliente é fundamental para assegurar a competitividade e o sucesso das empresas. Na última década, os clientes portugueses das empresas de telecomunicações fixas têm mudado de operador com demasiada facilidade, o que tem prejudicado o desempenho das empresas e, consequentemente, a economia. O principal objectivo deste estudo é analisar o cancelamento de contratos de telefone fixo e ADSL por clientes residenciais, através do uso de modelos de sobrevivência. Para além disso, pretende-se testar o pressuposto de que a taxa de retenção de clientes é constante ao longo do tempo e entre clientes. Por último, pretende-se analisar o efeito da satisfação do cliente no cancelamento destes tipos de contratos. Os modelos são construídos com base numa base de dados de larga escala fornecida por uma empresa portuguesa deste sector. Os modelos são estimados com base num vasto número de variáveis, incluindo informação básica sobre o cliente, dados demográficos, indicação sobre o cancelamento do contrato, dados históricos sobre o uso dos serviços, facturação, contracto, crédito, etc.. Os resultados mostram que as variáveis que influenciam o cancelamento de ambos os tipos de contratos são o uso do serviço, a facturação média, o valor em dívida, o número de facturas em dívida, o método de pagamento, o método de pagamento do equipamento, a existência de tarifas planas e o distrito do cliente. A portabilidade de número parece influenciar o cancelamento de contratos de telefone fixo. Os resultados também mostram que a taxa de retenção de clientes não é constante ao longo do tempo nem entre clientes em ambos os tipos de contratos. Por último, parece que a satisfação não influencia o cancelamento de ambos os tipos de contratos