Aplicaciones de la Teorí­a de Opciones Reales

El artí­culo tuvo como objetivo realizar una revisión de la literatura reportada con respecto a la Teorí­a de las Opciones Reales. Se realizó la búsqueda en Scopus para la aparición del término en idioma inglés “real options theory”. Se obtuvieron de acuerdo con ello un total de 130 referencias. El análisis de la distribución por disciplinas y años permitió determinar que paí­ses como China, Brazil y Méjico aparecen con contribuciones en Scopus. La distribución por disciplinas evidenció que las publicaciones en relación con la “teorí­a de las opciones reales” pueden abarcar las más variadas disciplinas desde Negocios, Gestión y Contabilidad, pasando por Ciencias de la Computación, Economí­a, Energí­a y Ciencias del Medio Ambiente. Se pudieron determinar   de acuerdo con el análisis realizado los nueve campos de aplicación de Teorí­a de las Opciones Reales

Cost-Benefit Analyses of Internet Investments

“Do we get value or money?” or “Do we have an attractive ROI?” are vital questions that any organisation is encountering today in pursuing an exploitation of the Internet. No matter whether exploitation is in regard to a focus on internal efficiency or external effectiveness the organisation carefully needs to verify the investment in terms of expected costs and likely benefits. The research question of the paper is to identify the different approaches to cost-benefit methods of Internet investments and to provide an overview of what the approaches sheds light upon. Moreover, the paper provides two examples of cost-benefit analyses. Finally, the paper provides a applicable short-list of important activities and decisions in a cost-benefit analysis. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses should not only contain content variables, but also include flow variables of the communication process, i.e. the variables of volume, data integration, diversity and span

Real Options: Strategic Technology Migration Options in Wireless Industry

The major US wireless operators already have announced their plans for evolution of their networks, but some uncertainties remain, such as emergence of new technologies (WiMAX and WLAN) and consolidation among operators (AT&T Mobile and Sprint Nextel). The paper proposes a real option based model for technology decisions and applies it to the US wireless industry as a case study. We also discuss what decisions are made, what the outcomes are, and how the options model is validated. The preliminary results show that the evolution of wireless network technologies between generations (intergenerations migration scenario) is desirable (a positive net option value), but not desirable (a negative net option value) within generations (intra-generation migration scenario)

Putting Numbers on Intangible Benefits

Intangible benefits have been a thorn in the side of information technology project valuation efforts. These benefits are often comparable to tangible benefits in magnitude, and so should not be ignored. Yet, unless we can attach numbers to them, it is difficult to combine them in a consistent way with tangible benefits to reduce the chances of underestimating the true value of a project. The lack of agreement in both theory and practice on how to treat intangible benefits suggests that it continues to be an unresolved yet important issue. In this paper, we suggest a disciplined way, based on system dynamics, to quantify so-called intangible benefits. Although it is not algorithmic, the method still has substantial structure and can be implemented and estimated to varying degrees of detail to suit project needs. The method is demonstrated by applying it to a cellular service provider context. A simple but key notion that is used to develop our approach is that of induced observability. Ithelpstooperationalizeintangiblebenefitsinawaythatfacilitatesquantificationforpurposes of project valuation

Dampak Penerapan Prioritas Investasi Bidang Teknologi Informasi Menggunakan Quality Function Deployment (Qfd) Terhadap Tingkat Keselarasan Antara Strategi Bisnis Dan Strategi Ti

Dalam lingkungan kompetisi, penentuan prioritas investasi teknologi informasi (TI) harus selaras dan mendukung strategi bisnis sehingga nilai bisnis dapat dimaksimalkan dan ancaman kompetisi dapat diminimalkan. Di samping itu, investasi TI yang dilakukan harus memiliki efisiensi yang tinggi untuk mendukung bisnis saat ini dan harus memiliki fleksibilitas yang baik untuk mengakomodasi kebutuhan bisnis mendatang. Penelitian ini akan mengukur tingkat keselarasan antara strategi bisnis dan strategi TI dengan membandingkan sebelum dan sesudah penerapan prioritas investasi bidang teknologi informasi menggunakan Quality Funtion Deployment (QFD) di Politeknik Caltex Riau dengan model yang diajukan oleh Nugroho (2010). Penilaian tingkat keselarasan menggunakan Strategic Alignment Maturity Model (SAMM) yang diajukan oleh Luftman dan Kempaiah (2007). Hasil yang didapatkan pada penerapan model prioritas investasi bidang TI menggunakan QFD dapat meningkatkan keselarasan strategis antara strategi bisnis dan strategi TI. Menurut kriteria penilaian SAMM saat penerapan pada objek studi kasus, model ini dapat meningkatkan keselarasan strategis dari level 2 (committed) ke level 4 (improved) serta mampu memperbaiki hubungan dan mekanisme kerja antara domain manajemen dan domain TI dengan adanya kesamaan level persepsi

ICT INVESTMENT EFFECTIVENESS IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN POST OFFICE: RECONSIDERING THE APPROACHES OF THE PAST 20 YEARS

Organisations have invested and continue to invest considerable resources in Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Much of this investment is made on the basis of guarantee than an expected return will occur. This study presents the results of an empirical study of the impact of ICT investment on performance at the South African Post office (SAPO). Six years of historical data, from 2005 to 2010, were obtained from the Chief Information Officer (CIO) of the SAPO and analysed. This included appropriate IT data and financial data from the organisation’s financial statements and balance sheet. ICT investments were tested against financial performance indicators such as return on ICT investment, operating leverage, turnover growth, net profit, organisational risk, IT cost efficiency ratio and IT efficiency ratio. Within the period studied, it was observed that ICT investments at SAPO were negatively correlated with most of the financial indicators such as return on ICT investment, operating leverage, turn-over growth, net profit, organisational risk and IT efficiency ratio. This study therefore suggests that ICT investments at SAPO for the mentioned period did not have desirable impact on financial performance of the organisation. In order to realise tangible financial benefits of the ICT investments at SAPO, the research results suggest that a longer period needs to be considered, and should also include like non-technological determinants such as competence and experience levels of IT personnel, alignment of IT strategy with business strategy and business process re-engineering to suit new systems needs to be considered too prior to making any investments in ICT

R&D and Commercialization Investment Strategies Using Game Theoretic Real Options in a Duopoly

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2018. 8. 이덕주.글로벌 경쟁 상황에서 기술경쟁력은 기업의 성패를 좌우하는 중요한 요소이기에 기술에 대한 R&D의 중요성이 더욱 부각되고 있다. 기업들은 궁극적으로 그들의 이윤을 최대화하는 방향으로 서로 경쟁하는 상황 속에서 기술 R&D 투자 여부, 더 나아가 사업화 투자 여부에 대한 의사결정을 내린다. 일반적으로 기술의 R&D 성공 여부와 시장의 수요는 불확실성을 가지므로 기업들은 투자 시기를 연기하는 옵션을 고려하게 되고, 이는 시장을 선점하는 이점과 상충관계를 가진다. 본 논문에서는 위의 상황을 2단계 게임 이론 모형으로 모델링 하여 이 문제를 분석한다. 첫 번째 단계는 R&D 투자 게임으로 먼저 R&D 투자 여부를 결정하고, 이후 두 번째 단계에서는 사업화 투자 여부를 결정한다. 이때, 두 번째 단계에서 각 기업의 이익은 첫 번째 단계의 R&D 투자 게임 결과에 영향을 받으며, 사업화 단계에서 시장 수요의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 이산 실물옵션을 이용한다. 이 모델링을 통하여 경쟁하는 두 기업의 R&D와 사업화에 대한 전략적인 의사결정을 분석할 수 있다. 수치예제와 민감도 분석을 통해 구체적인 상황 속에서 경쟁하는 두 기업이 어떠한 의사결정을 내리는 것이 최적의 의사결정인지에 대해 설명한다.제 1 장 서론 1 1.1 문제정의 2 1.2 연구 동기 및 공헌 5 1.3 논문구성 6 제 2 장 선행연구 7 2.1 R&D 및 사업화 투자에 대한 선행연구 7 제 3 장 실물옵션 게임모형 9 3.1 이론적 배경: 실물옵션 모형 9 3.2 이론적 배경: 실물옵션 게임모형 11 3.3 R&D 및 사업화 투자 실물옵션 게임모형 13 3.4 R&D 및 사업화 투자 실물옵션 게임모형 분석 16 제 4 장 분석 25 4.1 수치 예제 25 4.2 민감도 분석 29 제 5 장 결론 36 5.1 결론 36 5.2 향후 연구 38 부록 39 참고 문헌 52 Abstract 59 감사의 글 61Maste