Stock-flow consistent models : evolution, methodological issues, and fiscal policy applications

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo discutir diferentes aspectos de um método de modelagem econômica conhecido por Modelos Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). Essa classe de modelos tem como principais características a presença de matrizes que representam os balanços patrimoniais dos setores modelados, bem como os fluxos de transações e de fundos financeiros. A primeira etapa do trabalho consiste em analisar as origens dos modelos SFC, apresentando os trabalhos que precederam as primeiras formulações. Em seguida, é feito um survey completo da literatura SFC corrente. Essas duas etapas são realizadas através de uma revisão bibliográfica de artigos, working papers, teses e dissertações. A terceira etapa do trabalho consiste em discutir aspectos metodológicos da modelagem SFC, em especial a modelagem de equações comportamentais de expectativas. Por fim, um modelo SFC é elaborado com o objetivo de analisar o comportamento de uma economia sob quatro regimes fiscais diferentes: (i) balanço equilibrado; (ii) meta de gastos do governo como proporção do PIB; (iii) meta de déficit do governo como proporção do PIB; (iv) meta de dívida pública como proporção do PIB. O comportamento em estado estacionário desses regimes é analisado, bem como sua resiliência a choques. Entre as conclusões, percebeu-se que o segundo regime apresenta a maior taxa de crescimento no steady state, além de ser mais resiliente a choques negativos.The general goal of this dissertation is to discuss different dimensions of a class of Post-Keynesian models known as Stock-Flow Consistent Models. The main features of these models are: (i) the presence of balance sheets matrices of the sectors to be modeled, guaranteeing the consistency in the economic stocks; (ii) the flow of funds matrix, that records the real and financial transactions of the economy. The first step of the work is to analyze the origins of the SFC models, presenting the works that preceded the first elaborations. Next to it, the current SFC literature is surveyed. These two steps are accomplished by means of a survey of the literature in academic journals, working papers, dissertations and thesis. The third step of the work is a discussion of methodological issues such as the role of expectations in the behavioral functions for consumption. Finally, the fourth step consists of elaborating a SFC model in order to analyze four fiscal policy regimes: (i) balanced budget, (ii) a target for government’s expenditures , (iii) a target for government deficit, and (iv) a target for government debt. The steady state behavior of each regime is analyzed, as well as its resilience to adverse shocks. The second regime is the one with the higher steady state growth rate and also is the more resilient to negative shocks

Keynesian Theorizing During Hard Times: Stock-Flow Consistent Models as an Unexplored 'Frontier' of Keynesian Macroeconomics

This paper argues that the Stock-Flow Consistent Approach to macroeconomic modeling can be seen as a natural outcome of the path taken by Keynesian macroeconomic thought in the 1960s and 1970s, a theoretical frontier that remained largely unexplored with the end of Keynesian academic hegemony. The representative views of Davidson, Godley, Minsky, and Tobin as different closures of the same SFC accounting framework are presented, and similarities and problems discussed.Post-Keynesian Models, Stock-Flow Consistency, Pitfalls Approach

"Keynesian Theorizing During Hard Times: Stock-Flow Consistent Models as an Unexplored "Frontier" of Keynesian Macroeconomics"

This paper argues that the Stock-Flow Consistent Approach to macroeconomic modeling can be seen as a natural outcome of the path taken by Keynesian macroeconomic thought in the 1960s and 1970s, a theoretical frontier that remained largely unexplored with the end of Keynesian academic hegemony. The representative views of Davidson, Godley, Minsky, and Tobin as different closures of the same SFC accounting framework are presented, and similarities and problems discussed.

"A Simplified Stock-Flow Consistent Post-Keynesian Growth Model"

Despite being arguably the most rigorous form of structuralist/post-Keynesian macroeconomics, stock-flow consistent models are quite often complex and difficult to deal with. This paper presents a model that, despite retaining the methodological advantages of the stock-flow consistent method, is intuitive enough to be taught at an undergraduate level. Moreover, the model can easily be made more complex to shed light on a wealth of specific issues.

An Exploration of Stock-Flow Consistent Models: An Analysis of Fiscal Policy Effectiveness

This project explores the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach to modeling with the goal of examining the effectiveness of different fiscal policy tools, specifically tax policies and government expenditure. By exploring the historical and theoretical elements of stock-flow consistent models, we aim to gather insight on past successful models proven to predict crises. This paper begins with a history and continues into a simple SFC model thought experiment, which emphasizes the flexibility of the models as well as a precursor to the shock approach we employ at the end of the paper. We create Model ECONOMY with several strong assumptions, such as modeling a closed economy with an absence of the financial sector. By thoroughly comparing the results from the equations that comprise Model ECONOMY to that of historical data, we aim to provide legitimacy to the model. Once established, we will use the results from the baseline of Model ECONOMY and introduce shocks to the system. These shocks are forms of fiscal policy, from a decrease in taxes to an increase in government expenditures. We compare the results of the shocks to that of historical data from the same time period (2008-2015) in order to see what the effect would have been for each policy proposal. The goal of the paper is to use the SFC model to find an effective fiscal policy proposal

A Simplified Stock-Flow Consistent Post-Keynesian Growth Model

A Simplified Stock-Flow Consistent Post-Keynesian Growth Model Claudio H. Dos Santos* and Gennaro Zezza** Abstract: Despite being arguably the most rigorous form of structuralist/post-Keynesian macroeconomics, stock-flow consistent models are quite often complex and difficult to deal with. This paper presents a model that, despite retaining the methodological advantages of the stock-flow consistent method, is intuitive enough to be taught at an undergraduate level. Moreover, the model can easily be made more complex to shed light on a wealth of specific issues.Post-Keynesian Growth, Stock-Flow Consistency, Real-Financial Interactions

"The Keynesian Roots of Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: Peering Over the Edge of the Short Period"

This paper argues that institutionally rich stock-flow consistent models—that is, models in which economic agents are identified with the main social categories/institutional sectors of actual capitalist economies, the short period behavior of these agents is thoroughly described, and the "period by period" balance sheet dynamics implied by the latter is consistently modeled—are (1) perfectly compatible with John Maynard Keynes's theoretical views, (2) the ideal tool for rigorous post-Keynesian analyses of the medium run, and (3) therefore crucial to the consolidation of the broad post-Keynesian research program.

Words to the Wise: Stock Flow Consistent Modeling of Financial Instability

The crisis has exposed the failure of economic models to deal sensibly with endogenously generated crises propagating from the financial sectors to the real economy, and back again. The goal of this paper is to review the method of stock flow consistent modeling to highlight areas in which it is deficient. I argue there is a fruitful research agenda in shoring up these deficiencies. The objective of stock flow modeling should be the ability to practically model unstable macroeconomies, and in particular their interactions with the financial sector. These models should provide 'Words to the Wise', and until they do, they are just thought experiments.Instability, finance, stock flow consistent models